Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:14:23

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
19.1 oversold
20d Trend
-20.9%
5d Trend
-12.4%
EMA20 Dist
-13.6%
ATR%
4.1%
Range Pos
3%
Bounce Ratio
0.5×
Green/Red 10d
2/8

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

37
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
13.4/35
Total Return
14.4/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
3.1/15
Consistency
6.4/10
Raw Quality 37.3/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 37.0

30-Day Momentum

36
+4.1%
30d Return
40%
Win Rate
10
Trades
2.0×
Profit Factor
Quality: 41.4 Conf: 0.87×
Cooling (-1 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
9,906
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
127 days
Data Gaps
None (5 market holidays)

Market Closed (5 days)

2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)

Period Start Capital
$10,600.35
Current Value
$15,032.67
Period P&L
$4,432.28
Max Drawdown
-13.9%
Sharpe Ratio
0.32

Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)

Trades in Period
58
Winners / Losers
26 / 32
Best Trade
+8.09%
Worst Trade
-4.05%
Avg Trade Return
+0.68%
Avg Hold Time
21.8h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,462,636.75
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$4,432.28
Net P&L (after fees)
$4,432.28
Gross Return
+41.81%
Net Return (after fees)
+41.81%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 ARKK Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 127 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 6 Months - 58 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Grace Crossover had $10,600.35 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Mar 24, 2026 2:20pm ET $68.97 149 $10,276.53 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 25, 2026 11:15am ET $70.08 149 $10,441.92 $10,476.72 +$165.39
(+1.6%)
DEATH_CROSS
20.9h held
2 🟢 BUY Mar 30, 2026 9:30am ET $65.26 160 $10,441.01 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 30, 2026 9:50am ET $64.51 160 $10,321.60 $10,357.31 $-119.41
(-1.1%)
DEATH_CROSS
20m held
3 🟢 BUY Apr 2, 2026 10:40am ET $68.41 151 $10,329.91 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 2, 2026 12:20pm ET $67.83 151 $10,242.33 $10,269.73 $-87.58
(-0.8%)
DEATH_CROSS
1.7h held
4 🟢 BUY Apr 7, 2026 3:20pm ET $68.45 150 $10,267.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 9, 2026 2:00pm ET $69.08 150 $10,362.75 $10,364.98 +$95.25
(+0.9%)
DEATH_CROSS
1.9d held
5 🟢 BUY Apr 10, 2026 3:10pm ET $69.19 149 $10,309.31 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 14, 2026 11:25am ET $74.79 149 $11,143.71 $11,199.38 +$834.40
(+8.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
3.8d held
6 🟢 BUY Apr 15, 2026 1:50pm ET $76.71 145 $11,123.67 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 15, 2026 2:00pm ET $76.56 145 $11,101.20 $11,176.91 $-22.47
(-0.2%)
DEATH_CROSS
10m held
7 🟢 BUY Apr 20, 2026 11:45am ET $78.83 141 $11,115.04 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 20, 2026 12:25pm ET $78.53 141 $11,072.73 $11,134.60 $-42.31
(-0.4%)
DEATH_CROSS
40m held
8 🟢 BUY Apr 21, 2026 3:00pm ET $78.29 142 $11,116.47 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 22, 2026 12:20pm ET $78.86 142 $11,198.12 $11,216.25 +$81.65
(+0.7%)
DEATH_CROSS
21.3h held
9 🟢 BUY Apr 24, 2026 9:30am ET $77.33 145 $11,213.57 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 24, 2026 11:20am ET $76.44 145 $11,083.80 $11,086.48 $-129.77
(-1.2%)
DEATH_CROSS
1.8h held
10 🟢 BUY Apr 27, 2026 1:10pm ET $76.57 144 $11,026.08 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 27, 2026 2:55pm ET $76.51 144 $11,017.44 $11,077.84 $-8.64
(-0.1%)
DEATH_CROSS
1.8h held
11 🟢 BUY Apr 29, 2026 1:35pm ET $73.30 151 $11,068.30 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 29, 2026 2:05pm ET $73.06 151 $11,032.06 $11,041.60 $-36.24
(-0.3%)
DEATH_CROSS
30m held
12 🟢 BUY May 1, 2026 9:35am ET $76.07 145 $11,030.15 — — —
🔴 SELL May 4, 2026 11:40am ET $77.78 145 $11,278.10 $11,289.55 +$247.95
(+2.2%)
DEATH_CROSS
3.1d held
13 🟢 BUY May 5, 2026 3:00pm ET $76.73 147 $11,278.59 — — —
🔴 SELL May 7, 2026 10:20am ET $78.97 147 $11,608.59 $11,619.55 +$330.00
(+2.9%)
DEATH_CROSS
1.8d held
14 🟢 BUY May 8, 2026 10:20am ET $77.89 149 $11,605.60 — — —
🔴 SELL May 11, 2026 3:25pm ET $80.18 149 $11,946.82 $11,960.77 +$341.22
(+2.9%)
DEATH_CROSS
3.2d held
15 🟢 BUY May 13, 2026 10:35am ET $77.76 153 $11,897.28 — — —
🔴 SELL May 13, 2026 1:55pm ET $78.24 153 $11,970.72 $12,034.21 +$73.44
(+0.6%)
DEATH_CROSS
3.3h held
16 🟢 BUY May 14, 2026 2:25pm ET $78.57 153 $12,021.97 — — —
🔴 SELL May 15, 2026 9:45am ET $75.39 153 $11,534.67 $11,546.91 $-487.30
(-4.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
19.3h held
17 🟢 BUY May 18, 2026 10:00am ET $75.73 152 $11,510.96 — — —
🔴 SELL May 19, 2026 9:35am ET $73.60 152 $11,187.20 $11,223.15 $-323.76
(-2.8%)
DEATH_CROSS
23.6h held
18 🟢 BUY May 20, 2026 3:25pm ET $75.76 148 $11,212.48 — — —
🔴 SELL May 21, 2026 9:30am ET $75.25 148 $11,136.26 $11,146.93 $-76.22
(-0.7%)
DEATH_CROSS
18.1h held
19 🟢 BUY May 26, 2026 1:00pm ET $77.36 144 $11,139.12 — — —
🔴 SELL May 29, 2026 2:05pm ET $81.85 144 $11,786.40 $11,794.21 +$647.28
(+5.8%)
DEATH_CROSS
3d held
20 🟢 BUY Jun 2, 2026 1:15pm ET $79.96 147 $11,754.12 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 2, 2026 1:40pm ET $79.85 147 $11,737.22 $11,777.31 $-16.90
(-0.1%)
DEATH_CROSS
25m held
21 🟢 BUY Jun 3, 2026 1:40pm ET $78.10 150 $11,714.25 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 3, 2026 3:10pm ET $78.04 150 $11,705.25 $11,768.31 $-9.00
(-0.1%)
DEATH_CROSS
1.5h held
22 🟢 BUY Jun 5, 2026 3:45pm ET $74.51 157 $11,698.85 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 8, 2026 1:10pm ET $75.84 157 $11,906.88 $11,976.33 +$208.02
(+1.8%)
DEATH_CROSS
2.9d held
23 🟢 BUY Jun 9, 2026 1:35pm ET $73.97 161 $11,909.17 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 10, 2026 10:55am ET $74.94 161 $12,066.14 $12,133.30 +$156.97
(+1.3%)
DEATH_CROSS
21.3h held
24 🟢 BUY Jun 11, 2026 1:30pm ET $74.21 163 $12,096.23 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 12, 2026 11:50am ET $74.98 163 $12,221.71 $12,258.78 +$125.48
(+1.0%)
DEATH_CROSS
22.3h held
25 🟢 BUY Jun 15, 2026 3:50pm ET $79.58 154 $12,255.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 16, 2026 9:30am ET $79.45 154 $12,235.30 $12,238.76 $-20.02
(-0.2%)
DEATH_CROSS
17.7h held
26 🟢 BUY Jun 17, 2026 9:45am ET $80.12 152 $12,178.24 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 18, 2026 11:30am ET $79.20 152 $12,038.40 $12,098.92 $-139.84
(-1.1%)
DEATH_CROSS
1.1d held
27 🟢 BUY Jun 23, 2026 12:30pm ET $77.75 155 $12,052.02 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 23, 2026 1:50pm ET $77.42 155 $11,999.33 $12,046.22 $-52.70
(-0.4%)
DEATH_CROSS
1.3h held
28 🟢 BUY Jun 24, 2026 2:30pm ET $77.50 155 $12,012.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 25, 2026 9:50am ET $76.81 155 $11,905.55 $11,939.27 $-106.95
(-0.9%)
DEATH_CROSS
19.3h held
29 🟢 BUY Jun 26, 2026 3:55pm ET $78.15 152 $11,878.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 30, 2026 9:35am ET $80.27 152 $12,201.04 $12,261.51 +$322.24
(+2.7%)
DEATH_CROSS
3.7d held
30 🟢 BUY Jul 1, 2026 2:00pm ET $82.55 148 $12,217.58 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 1, 2026 2:05pm ET $82.41 148 $12,196.68 $12,240.61 $-20.90
(-0.2%)
DEATH_CROSS
5m held
31 🟢 BUY Jul 6, 2026 3:20pm ET $83.66 146 $12,214.36 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 6, 2026 3:35pm ET $83.40 146 $12,176.40 $12,202.65 $-37.96
(-0.3%)
DEATH_CROSS
15m held
32 🟢 BUY Jul 8, 2026 12:45pm ET $79.44 153 $12,154.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 9, 2026 3:10pm ET $81.59 153 $12,483.27 $12,531.60 +$328.95
(+2.7%)
DEATH_CROSS
1.1d held
33 🟢 BUY Jul 14, 2026 9:30am ET $78.94 158 $12,472.52 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 14, 2026 3:05pm ET $79.44 158 $12,551.52 $12,610.60 +$79.00
(+0.6%)
DEATH_CROSS
5.6h held
34 🟢 BUY Jul 15, 2026 3:30pm ET $79.56 158 $12,569.69 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 16, 2026 9:30am ET $78.81 158 $12,451.98 $12,492.89 $-117.71
(-0.9%)
DEATH_CROSS
18h held
35 🟢 BUY Jul 17, 2026 12:10pm ET $75.61 165 $12,475.65 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 17, 2026 2:20pm ET $75.52 165 $12,460.80 $12,478.04 $-14.85
(-0.1%)
DEATH_CROSS
2.2h held
36 🟢 BUY Jul 21, 2026 9:35am ET $76.26 163 $12,430.38 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 21, 2026 2:25pm ET $77.68 163 $12,661.84 $12,709.50 +$231.46
(+1.9%)
DEATH_CROSS
4.8h held
37 🟢 BUY Jul 23, 2026 12:30pm ET $74.12 171 $12,674.52 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 23, 2026 12:50pm ET $73.80 171 $12,619.80 $12,654.78 $-54.72
(-0.4%)
DEATH_CROSS
20m held
38 🟢 BUY Jul 24, 2026 1:30pm ET $72.64 174 $12,638.49 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 24, 2026 2:05pm ET $72.28 174 $12,576.72 $12,593.01 $-61.77
(-0.5%)
DEATH_CROSS
35m held
39 🟢 BUY Jul 27, 2026 2:50pm ET $72.19 174 $12,561.06 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 28, 2026 2:05pm ET $72.05 174 $12,536.70 $12,568.65 $-24.36
(-0.2%)
DEATH_CROSS
23.3h held
40 🟢 BUY Jul 30, 2026 9:50am ET $72.25 173 $12,499.25 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 30, 2026 2:35pm ET $72.30 173 $12,507.90 $12,577.30 +$8.65
(+0.1%)
DEATH_CROSS
4.8h held
41 🟢 BUY Aug 3, 2026 9:50am ET $71.58 175 $12,526.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 5, 2026 9:35am ET $76.61 175 $13,406.75 $13,457.55 +$880.25
(+7.0%)
DEATH_CROSS
2d held
42 🟢 BUY Aug 6, 2026 10:55am ET $76.32 176 $13,432.34 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 6, 2026 11:45am ET $76.03 176 $13,380.40 $13,405.61 $-51.94
(-0.4%)
DEATH_CROSS
50m held
43 🟢 BUY Aug 7, 2026 1:35pm ET $78.63 170 $13,367.10 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 10, 2026 12:40pm ET $80.04 170 $13,606.80 $13,645.31 +$239.70
(+1.8%)
DEATH_CROSS
3d held
44 🟢 BUY Aug 12, 2026 11:40am ET $80.92 168 $13,594.56 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 13, 2026 11:15am ET $81.91 168 $13,760.88 $13,811.63 +$166.32
(+1.2%)
DEATH_CROSS
23.6h held
45 🟢 BUY Aug 14, 2026 1:15pm ET $81.29 169 $13,738.01 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 14, 2026 1:50pm ET $81.11 169 $13,707.59 $13,781.21 $-30.42
(-0.2%)
DEATH_CROSS
35m held
46 🟢 BUY Aug 18, 2026 12:55pm ET $79.77 172 $13,720.44 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 19, 2026 1:25pm ET $82.48 172 $14,186.56 $14,247.33 +$466.12
(+3.4%)
DEATH_CROSS
1d held
47 🟢 BUY Aug 20, 2026 3:20pm ET $83.19 171 $14,225.49 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 21, 2026 2:10pm ET $86.03 171 $14,711.13 $14,732.97 +$485.64
(+3.4%)
DEATH_CROSS
22.8h held
48 🟢 BUY Aug 25, 2026 9:35am ET $84.73 173 $14,658.29 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 25, 2026 2:30pm ET $86.57 173 $14,976.61 $15,051.29 +$318.32
(+2.2%)
DEATH_CROSS
4.9h held
49 🟢 BUY Aug 27, 2026 9:30am ET $86.33 174 $15,021.77 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 27, 2026 1:55pm ET $87.46 174 $15,218.04 $15,247.56 +$196.27
(+1.3%)
DEATH_CROSS
4.4h held
50 🟢 BUY Aug 28, 2026 3:30pm ET $84.61 180 $15,229.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 31, 2026 9:30am ET $83.75 180 $15,075.90 $15,093.66 $-153.90
(-1.0%)
DEATH_CROSS
2.8d held
51 🟢 BUY Sep 1, 2026 3:35pm ET $83.38 181 $15,091.78 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 4, 2026 9:30am ET $85.84 181 $15,537.04 $15,538.92 +$445.26
(+3.0%)
DEATH_CROSS
2.7d held
52 🟢 BUY Sep 8, 2026 11:05am ET $86.09 180 $15,496.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 8, 2026 2:35pm ET $86.33 180 $15,539.40 $15,582.12 +$43.20
(+0.3%)
DEATH_CROSS
3.5h held
53 🟢 BUY Sep 11, 2026 9:30am ET $84.00 185 $15,540.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 11, 2026 12:15pm ET $83.96 185 $15,532.60 $15,574.72 $-7.40
(-0.0%)
DEATH_CROSS
2.8h held
54 🟢 BUY Sep 14, 2026 3:25pm ET $84.99 183 $15,553.17 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 15, 2026 9:30am ET $83.90 183 $15,354.61 $15,376.17 $-198.55
(-1.3%)
DEATH_CROSS
18.1h held
55 🟢 BUY Sep 16, 2026 9:35am ET $83.95 183 $15,362.85 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 16, 2026 12:00pm ET $83.82 183 $15,339.06 $15,352.38 $-23.79
(-0.2%)
DEATH_CROSS
2.4h held
56 🟢 BUY Sep 17, 2026 2:00pm ET $86.92 176 $15,297.92 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 17, 2026 2:45pm ET $86.84 176 $15,283.84 $15,338.30 $-14.08
(-0.1%)
DEATH_CROSS
45m held
57 🟢 BUY Sep 21, 2026 1:45pm ET $90.72 169 $15,331.68 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 21, 2026 3:55pm ET $90.71 169 $15,329.99 $15,336.61 $-1.69
(-0.0%)
DEATH_CROSS
2.2h held
58 🟢 BUY Sep 23, 2026 9:45am ET $91.79 167 $15,328.93 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 24, 2026 11:10am ET $89.97 167 $15,024.99 $15,032.67 $-303.94
(-2.0%)
DEATH_CROSS
1.1d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $15,032.67
Net Profit/Loss: +$5,032.67
Total Return: +50.33%
Back to Grace Crossover