MSFT Grace Crossover's Analysis
Last 6 Months: 2026-03-25 to present • 51 trades in period
+10.26%
Last 6 Months Return
$10,350.18
Current Value
41%
Win Rate
$9,386.94
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
22.7 oversold
20d Trend
-16.1%
5d Trend
-8.1%
EMA20 Dist
-9.8%
ATR%
3.8%
Range Pos
2%
Bounce Ratio
0.3×
Green/Red 10d
2/8
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
11
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.7/35
Total Return
5.4/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.4/15
Consistency
4.9/10
Raw Quality
11.3/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 11.2
30-Day Momentum
14
+0.6%
30d Return
44%
Win Rate
9
Trades
1.2×
Profit Factor
Quality: 16.4
Conf: 0.84×
Steady (+3 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
9,906
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
127 days
Data Gaps
None (5 market holidays)
Market Closed (5 days)
2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)
Period Start Capital
$9,386.94
Current Value
$10,350.18
Period P&L
$963.25
Max Drawdown
-19.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.13
Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)
Trades in Period
51
Winners / Losers
21 /
30
Best Trade
+8.22%
Worst Trade
-1.96%
Avg Trade Return
+0.20%
Avg Hold Time
1d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,016,506.95
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$963.25
Net P&L (after fees)
$963.25
Gross Return
+10.26%
Net Return (after fees)
+10.26%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 MSFT Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 127 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 6 Months - 51 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Grace Crossover had $9,386.94 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 25, 2026 3:50pm ET | $371.15 | 25 | $9,278.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 26, 2026 9:35am ET | $369.77 | 25 | $9,244.25 | $9,352.43 |
$-34.50 (-0.4%) |
DEATH_CROSS
17.8h held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 9:35am ET | $359.95 | 25 | $8,998.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 30, 2026 12:30pm ET | $361.95 | 25 | $9,048.63 | $9,402.30 |
+$49.87 (+0.6%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.9h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 10:05am ET | $370.99 | 25 | $9,274.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 6, 2026 10:45am ET | $371.60 | 25 | $9,289.88 | $9,417.43 |
+$15.13 (+0.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
5d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2026 12:05pm ET | $369.82 | 25 | $9,245.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 2:40pm ET | $370.25 | 25 | $9,256.25 | $9,428.18 |
+$10.75 (+0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.6h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 3:15pm ET | $371.60 | 25 | $9,290.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 10, 2026 10:55am ET | $371.88 | 25 | $9,297.07 | $9,435.25 |
+$7.07 (+0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
19.7h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2026 3:40pm ET | $392.63 | 24 | $9,423.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 15, 2026 3:55pm ET | $411.14 | 24 | $9,867.48 | $9,879.61 |
+$444.36 (+4.7%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 20, 2026 12:30pm ET | $419.00 | 23 | $9,637.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 21, 2026 1:15pm ET | $424.44 | 23 | $9,762.12 | $10,004.73 |
+$125.12 (+1.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 22, 2026 2:55pm ET | $431.80 | 23 | $9,931.29 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 22, 2026 3:15pm ET | $431.33 | 23 | $9,920.70 | $9,994.15 |
$-10.58 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
20m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 23, 2026 3:20pm ET | $416.06 | 24 | $9,985.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 24, 2026 12:25pm ET | $418.70 | 24 | $10,048.68 | $10,057.39 |
+$63.24 (+0.6%) |
DEATH_CROSS
21.1h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 28, 2026 9:55am ET | $426.01 | 23 | $9,798.23 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 28, 2026 2:05pm ET | $427.08 | 23 | $9,822.95 | $10,082.11 |
+$24.72 (+0.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
4.2h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 30, 2026 1:55pm ET | $402.42 | 25 | $10,060.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 1, 2026 12:45pm ET | $413.61 | 25 | $10,340.13 | $10,361.73 |
+$279.62 (+2.8%) |
DEATH_CROSS
22.8h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | May 5, 2026 9:35am ET | $414.73 | 24 | $9,953.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 5, 2026 2:40pm ET | $410.01 | 24 | $9,840.24 | $10,248.52 |
$-113.21 (-1.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
5.1h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | May 7, 2026 2:30pm ET | $423.36 | 24 | $10,160.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 8, 2026 1:50pm ET | $415.84 | 24 | $9,980.16 | $10,068.04 |
$-180.48 (-1.8%) |
DEATH_CROSS
23.3h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | May 12, 2026 12:15pm ET | $409.31 | 24 | $9,823.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 12, 2026 1:10pm ET | $408.73 | 24 | $9,809.64 | $10,054.24 |
$-13.80 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
55m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | May 13, 2026 2:25pm ET | $404.86 | 24 | $9,716.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 13, 2026 3:30pm ET | $404.43 | 24 | $9,706.32 | $10,044.04 |
$-10.20 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.1h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | May 18, 2026 12:40pm ET | $420.01 | 23 | $9,660.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 18, 2026 2:55pm ET | $421.33 | 23 | $9,690.59 | $10,074.39 |
+$30.35 (+0.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.3h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | May 20, 2026 11:05am ET | $415.61 | 24 | $9,974.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 21, 2026 9:50am ET | $419.23 | 24 | $10,061.40 | $10,161.27 |
+$86.88 (+0.9%) |
DEATH_CROSS
22.8h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | May 22, 2026 2:35pm ET | $419.17 | 24 | $10,060.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 26, 2026 10:40am ET | $417.42 | 24 | $10,018.20 | $10,119.39 |
$-41.88 (-0.4%) |
DEATH_CROSS
3.8d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | May 27, 2026 3:15pm ET | $412.77 | 24 | $9,906.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 29, 2026 3:50pm ET | $446.69 | 24 | $10,720.56 | $10,933.35 |
+$813.96 (+8.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 3, 2026 1:50pm ET | $426.77 | 25 | $10,669.29 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 5, 2026 2:15pm ET | $419.71 | 25 | $10,492.75 | $10,756.81 |
$-176.54 (-1.7%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 10, 2026 9:50am ET | $403.81 | 26 | $10,499.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 10, 2026 10:40am ET | $402.24 | 26 | $10,458.37 | $10,716.12 |
$-40.69 (-0.4%) |
DEATH_CROSS
50m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 11, 2026 1:40pm ET | $388.57 | 27 | $10,491.39 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 11, 2026 3:00pm ET | $387.23 | 27 | $10,455.21 | $10,679.94 |
$-36.18 (-0.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.3h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 15, 2026 3:40pm ET | $399.71 | 26 | $10,392.59 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $394.99 | 26 | $10,269.79 | $10,557.14 |
$-122.80 (-1.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
17.8h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 18, 2026 3:50pm ET | $379.81 | 27 | $10,254.87 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 22, 2026 9:30am ET | $374.60 | 27 | $10,114.20 | $10,416.47 |
$-140.67 (-1.4%) |
DEATH_CROSS
3.7d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $372.67 | 27 | $10,061.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 23, 2026 11:30am ET | $372.84 | 27 | $10,066.68 | $10,421.20 |
+$4.73 (+0.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 25, 2026 2:20pm ET | $354.48 | 29 | $10,279.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 25, 2026 3:30pm ET | $352.53 | 29 | $10,223.37 | $10,364.79 |
$-56.41 (-0.5%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.2h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 30, 2026 9:30am ET | $370.53 | 27 | $10,004.31 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 30, 2026 11:05am ET | $368.94 | 27 | $9,961.38 | $10,321.86 |
$-42.93 (-0.4%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.6h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 2, 2026 10:05am ET | $386.87 | 26 | $10,058.62 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 6, 2026 12:10pm ET | $385.70 | 26 | $10,028.32 | $10,291.57 |
$-30.29 (-0.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
4.1d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 8, 2026 1:25pm ET | $383.43 | 26 | $9,969.31 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 8, 2026 3:15pm ET | $383.03 | 26 | $9,958.78 | $10,281.04 |
$-10.53 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.8h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 10, 2026 11:45am ET | $383.69 | 26 | $9,975.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 13, 2026 3:20pm ET | $391.77 | 26 | $10,186.02 | $10,491.12 |
+$210.08 (+2.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
3.1d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 15, 2026 1:35pm ET | $396.19 | 26 | $10,300.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 15, 2026 1:50pm ET | $395.80 | 26 | $10,290.67 | $10,480.85 |
$-10.27 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
15m held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 17, 2026 12:40pm ET | $393.17 | 26 | $10,222.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $391.10 | 26 | $10,168.60 | $10,427.03 |
$-53.82 (-0.5%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.9d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 21, 2026 1:25pm ET | $399.29 | 26 | $10,381.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 21, 2026 2:05pm ET | $398.45 | 26 | $10,359.83 | $10,405.32 |
$-21.71 (-0.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
40m held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 22, 2026 2:40pm ET | $388.49 | 26 | $10,100.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 23, 2026 3:30pm ET | $380.89 | 26 | $9,903.14 | $10,207.72 |
$-197.60 (-2.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1d held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $390.23 | 26 | $10,145.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 27, 2026 12:20pm ET | $389.73 | 26 | $10,132.99 | $10,194.72 |
$-13.00 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.8h held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 29, 2026 10:45am ET | $394.39 | 25 | $9,859.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 29, 2026 12:15pm ET | $393.33 | 25 | $9,833.25 | $10,168.22 |
$-26.50 (-0.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.5h held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 31, 2026 9:35am ET | $458.36 | 22 | $10,083.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 31, 2026 10:25am ET | $454.60 | 22 | $10,001.09 | $10,085.39 |
$-82.83 (-0.8%) |
DEATH_CROSS
50m held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 4, 2026 10:00am ET | $491.46 | 20 | $9,829.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 4, 2026 12:45pm ET | $495.21 | 20 | $9,904.16 | $10,160.40 |
+$75.01 (+0.8%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.8h held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 7, 2026 3:15pm ET | $501.02 | 20 | $10,020.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 10, 2026 12:45pm ET | $508.04 | 20 | $10,160.70 | $10,300.80 |
+$140.40 (+1.4%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.9d held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 11, 2026 1:00pm ET | $502.25 | 20 | $10,045.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $500.45 | 20 | $10,008.90 | $10,264.70 |
$-36.10 (-0.4%) |
DEATH_CROSS
20.5h held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 19, 2026 9:40am ET | $484.18 | 21 | $10,167.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 19, 2026 10:35am ET | $482.12 | 21 | $10,124.52 | $10,221.44 |
$-43.26 (-0.4%) |
DEATH_CROSS
55m held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 21, 2026 1:00pm ET | $484.87 | 21 | $10,182.27 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 24, 2026 1:35pm ET | $488.15 | 21 | $10,251.25 | $10,290.43 |
+$68.99 (+0.7%) |
DEATH_CROSS
3d held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 27, 2026 9:45am ET | $496.31 | 20 | $9,926.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 27, 2026 11:35am ET | $498.52 | 20 | $9,970.40 | $10,334.63 |
+$44.20 (+0.4%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.8h held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 31, 2026 11:10am ET | $511.79 | 20 | $10,235.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 31, 2026 2:35pm ET | $510.14 | 20 | $10,202.90 | $10,301.73 |
$-32.90 (-0.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
3.4h held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 2, 2026 1:10pm ET | $496.23 | 20 | $9,924.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 2, 2026 2:35pm ET | $496.12 | 20 | $9,922.38 | $10,299.41 |
$-2.32 (-0.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.4h held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 4, 2026 3:00pm ET | $500.90 | 20 | $10,017.99 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 8, 2026 2:20pm ET | $491.95 | 20 | $9,839.00 | $10,120.42 |
$-178.99 (-1.8%) |
DEATH_CROSS
4d held |
|
| 47 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 10, 2026 10:35am ET | $491.95 | 20 | $9,838.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 10, 2026 12:10pm ET | $491.21 | 20 | $9,824.25 | $10,105.77 |
$-14.65 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.6h held |
|
| 48 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 11, 2026 2:05pm ET | $495.33 | 20 | $9,906.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 14, 2026 2:45pm ET | $507.14 | 20 | $10,142.80 | $10,342.07 |
+$236.30 (+2.4%) |
DEATH_CROSS
3d held |
|
| 49 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 16, 2026 11:50am ET | $494.50 | 20 | $9,890.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 17, 2026 12:30pm ET | $495.73 | 20 | $9,914.55 | $10,366.62 |
+$24.55 (+0.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1d held |
|
| 50 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 21, 2026 10:00am ET | $495.92 | 20 | $9,918.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 21, 2026 10:15am ET | $494.14 | 20 | $9,882.80 | $10,330.98 |
$-35.64 (-0.4%) |
DEATH_CROSS
15m held |
|
| 51 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 22, 2026 12:50pm ET | $496.88 | 20 | $9,937.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 23, 2026 10:20am ET | $497.84 | 20 | $9,956.80 | $10,350.18 |
+$19.20 (+0.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
21.5h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$10,350.18
Net Profit/Loss:
+$350.18
Total Return:
+3.50%