NVDA Grace Crossover's Analysis
Last 6 Months: 2026-03-25 to present • 54 trades in period
-5.91%
Last 6 Months Return
$9,954.72
Current Value
33%
Win Rate
$10,579.53
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
33.4 neutral
20d Trend
-9.7%
5d Trend
-7.1%
EMA20 Dist
-5.9%
ATR%
3.2%
Range Pos
3%
Bounce Ratio
0.7×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
7
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.1/35
Total Return
2.4/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
5.2/10
Raw Quality
7.6/100
× Confidence 0.98
= 7.5
30-Day Momentum
6
-3.4%
30d Return
38%
Win Rate
8
Trades
0.6×
Profit Factor
Quality: 7.1
Conf: 0.81×
Cooling (-2 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
9,906
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
127 days
Data Gaps
None (5 market holidays)
Market Closed (5 days)
2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)
Period Start Capital
$10,579.53
Current Value
$9,954.72
Period P&L
$-624.81
Max Drawdown
-30.4%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.04
Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)
Trades in Period
54
Winners / Losers
18 /
36
Best Trade
+4.80%
Worst Trade
-4.18%
Avg Trade Return
-0.06%
Avg Hold Time
22.1h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,108,035.21
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-624.81
Net P&L (after fees)
$-624.81
Gross Return
-5.91%
Net Return (after fees)
-5.91%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 NVDA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 127 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 6 Months - 54 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Grace Crossover had $10,579.53 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 24, 2026 2:00pm ET | $175.32 | 59 | $10,343.59 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 25, 2026 12:05pm ET | $178.82 | 59 | $10,550.67 | $10,583.37 |
+$207.09 (+2.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
22.1h held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 27, 2026 11:45am ET | $169.44 | 62 | $10,505.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 30, 2026 11:15am ET | $166.93 | 62 | $10,349.35 | $10,427.44 |
$-155.93 (-1.5%) |
DEATH_CROSS
3d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 6, 2026 11:40am ET | $176.98 | 58 | $10,264.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 6, 2026 1:05pm ET | $176.70 | 58 | $10,248.60 | $10,411.20 |
$-16.24 (-0.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.4h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 8, 2026 1:55pm ET | $181.68 | 57 | $10,356.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 9, 2026 2:20pm ET | $183.34 | 57 | $10,450.10 | $10,505.25 |
+$94.05 (+0.9%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 13, 2026 10:35am ET | $188.54 | 55 | $10,369.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 13, 2026 11:50am ET | $188.45 | 55 | $10,364.48 | $10,500.30 |
$-4.95 (-0.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.3h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 16, 2026 1:45pm ET | $198.65 | 52 | $10,330.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 16, 2026 1:55pm ET | $198.33 | 52 | $10,313.16 | $10,483.40 |
$-16.90 (-0.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
10m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 22, 2026 9:30am ET | $201.05 | 52 | $10,454.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 22, 2026 3:00pm ET | $201.45 | 52 | $10,475.40 | $10,504.20 |
+$20.80 (+0.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
5.5h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 23, 2026 3:55pm ET | $199.42 | 52 | $10,369.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 24, 2026 2:15pm ET | $209.00 | 52 | $10,868.02 | $11,002.38 |
+$498.18 (+4.8%) |
DEATH_CROSS
22.3h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 28, 2026 12:55pm ET | $210.88 | 52 | $10,965.71 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 30, 2026 9:35am ET | $208.24 | 52 | $10,828.64 | $10,865.31 |
$-137.07 (-1.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.9d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | May 1, 2026 9:35am ET | $201.55 | 53 | $10,682.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 1, 2026 9:50am ET | $199.76 | 53 | $10,587.53 | $10,770.69 |
$-94.62 (-0.9%) |
DEATH_CROSS
15m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | May 5, 2026 10:25am ET | $198.90 | 54 | $10,740.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 5, 2026 12:55pm ET | $197.49 | 54 | $10,664.46 | $10,694.55 |
$-76.14 (-0.7%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.5h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | May 7, 2026 1:40pm ET | $212.85 | 50 | $10,642.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 7, 2026 2:55pm ET | $212.08 | 50 | $10,604.00 | $10,656.05 |
$-38.50 (-0.4%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.3h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | May 8, 2026 3:15pm ET | $215.52 | 49 | $10,560.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 12, 2026 10:25am ET | $220.20 | 49 | $10,789.56 | $10,884.88 |
+$228.83 (+2.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
3.8d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | May 13, 2026 2:15pm ET | $227.23 | 47 | $10,679.81 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 13, 2026 3:25pm ET | $226.38 | 47 | $10,639.63 | $10,844.70 |
$-40.18 (-0.4%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.2h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | May 15, 2026 12:45pm ET | $228.57 | 47 | $10,742.79 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 18, 2026 2:40pm ET | $219.25 | 47 | $10,304.75 | $10,406.66 |
$-438.04 (-4.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.1d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | May 19, 2026 2:50pm ET | $222.96 | 46 | $10,256.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 20, 2026 1:50pm ET | $224.43 | 46 | $10,323.77 | $10,474.27 |
+$67.61 (+0.7%) |
DEATH_CROSS
23h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | May 21, 2026 3:40pm ET | $220.40 | 47 | $10,359.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 22, 2026 1:45pm ET | $216.86 | 47 | $10,192.55 | $10,307.78 |
$-166.49 (-1.6%) |
DEATH_CROSS
22.1h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | May 26, 2026 3:35pm ET | $213.65 | 48 | $10,255.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 27, 2026 9:35am ET | $212.53 | 48 | $10,201.44 | $10,254.02 |
$-53.76 (-0.5%) |
DEATH_CROSS
18h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | May 29, 2026 12:05pm ET | $215.68 | 47 | $10,137.19 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 29, 2026 1:50pm ET | $216.06 | 47 | $10,154.82 | $10,271.65 |
+$17.63 (+0.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.8h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 3, 2026 2:25pm ET | $215.92 | 47 | $10,148.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 3, 2026 3:15pm ET | $215.68 | 47 | $10,136.96 | $10,260.18 |
$-11.47 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
50m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $210.11 | 48 | $10,085.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 8, 2026 1:05pm ET | $208.04 | 48 | $9,985.92 | $10,160.82 |
$-99.36 (-1.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
3.6h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 9, 2026 1:30pm ET | $204.01 | 49 | $9,996.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 10, 2026 10:00am ET | $205.26 | 49 | $10,057.74 | $10,221.82 |
+$61.00 (+0.6%) |
DEATH_CROSS
20.5h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 11, 2026 1:30pm ET | $203.26 | 50 | $10,163.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 15, 2026 2:05pm ET | $211.48 | 50 | $10,574.00 | $10,632.82 |
+$411.00 (+4.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
4d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 17, 2026 12:20pm ET | $207.63 | 51 | $10,589.13 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 17, 2026 1:15pm ET | $206.94 | 51 | $10,553.94 | $10,597.63 |
$-35.19 (-0.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
55m held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 18, 2026 2:25pm ET | $210.29 | 50 | $10,514.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 18, 2026 2:55pm ET | $209.77 | 50 | $10,488.75 | $10,571.88 |
$-25.75 (-0.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
30m held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 24, 2026 10:50am ET | $201.21 | 52 | $10,462.91 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 25, 2026 9:55am ET | $193.13 | 52 | $10,043.02 | $10,151.98 |
$-419.90 (-4.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.1h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 29, 2026 10:50am ET | $194.09 | 52 | $10,092.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 29, 2026 12:15pm ET | $193.84 | 52 | $10,079.68 | $10,138.98 |
$-13.00 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.4h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 1, 2026 11:30am ET | $196.94 | 51 | $10,043.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 1, 2026 3:55pm ET | $197.71 | 51 | $10,082.96 | $10,177.99 |
+$39.01 (+0.4%) |
DEATH_CROSS
4.4h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 6, 2026 2:25pm ET | $196.40 | 51 | $10,016.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 6, 2026 3:55pm ET | $195.67 | 51 | $9,979.17 | $10,140.76 |
$-37.23 (-0.4%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.5h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 8, 2026 11:35am ET | $197.48 | 51 | $10,071.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 9, 2026 9:40am ET | $202.22 | 51 | $10,313.22 | $10,382.50 |
+$241.74 (+2.4%) |
DEATH_CROSS
22.1h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 10, 2026 3:30pm ET | $210.14 | 49 | $10,296.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $209.18 | 49 | $10,249.82 | $10,335.46 |
$-47.04 (-0.5%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.8d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $207.48 | 49 | $10,166.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 15, 2026 10:00am ET | $211.62 | 49 | $10,369.38 | $10,538.32 |
+$202.86 (+2.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 16, 2026 2:25pm ET | $207.30 | 50 | $10,365.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 16, 2026 3:15pm ET | $206.67 | 50 | $10,333.71 | $10,507.03 |
$-31.29 (-0.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
50m held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $205.60 | 51 | $10,485.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 20, 2026 2:25pm ET | $204.37 | 51 | $10,422.87 | $10,444.30 |
$-62.73 (-0.6%) |
DEATH_CROSS
4.9h held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 23, 2026 12:10pm ET | $208.80 | 50 | $10,440.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 27, 2026 10:25am ET | $200.09 | 50 | $10,004.50 | $10,008.80 |
$-435.50 (-4.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.9d held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 28, 2026 3:05pm ET | $197.50 | 50 | $9,875.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $195.61 | 50 | $9,780.50 | $9,914.30 |
$-94.50 (-1.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
18.4h held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 30, 2026 9:55am ET | $194.24 | 51 | $9,906.49 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 30, 2026 11:20am ET | $193.84 | 51 | $9,885.59 | $9,893.39 |
$-20.91 (-0.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.4h held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 31, 2026 12:20pm ET | $196.70 | 50 | $9,835.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 31, 2026 3:10pm ET | $198.32 | 50 | $9,916.00 | $9,974.40 |
+$81.01 (+0.8%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.8h held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $211.95 | 47 | $9,961.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 5, 2026 3:40pm ET | $220.71 | 47 | $10,373.40 | $10,386.15 |
+$411.75 (+4.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.3d held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $222.17 | 46 | $10,219.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 10, 2026 10:00am ET | $221.92 | 46 | $10,208.32 | $10,374.65 |
$-11.50 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
3d held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 11, 2026 3:20pm ET | $217.63 | 47 | $10,228.61 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 12, 2026 2:05pm ET | $223.44 | 47 | $10,501.68 | $10,647.72 |
+$273.07 (+2.7%) |
DEATH_CROSS
22.8h held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $227.00 | 46 | $10,442.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 14, 2026 2:20pm ET | $225.22 | 46 | $10,360.12 | $10,565.84 |
$-81.88 (-0.8%) |
DEATH_CROSS
4.8h held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 18, 2026 12:55pm ET | $220.31 | 47 | $10,354.53 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 19, 2026 11:50am ET | $218.85 | 47 | $10,285.95 | $10,497.25 |
$-68.59 (-0.7%) |
DEATH_CROSS
22.9h held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 20, 2026 12:55pm ET | $217.27 | 48 | $10,428.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 21, 2026 9:55am ET | $216.65 | 48 | $10,399.20 | $10,467.49 |
$-29.76 (-0.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
21h held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 24, 2026 12:20pm ET | $210.68 | 49 | $10,323.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 24, 2026 12:35pm ET | $210.24 | 49 | $10,301.76 | $10,445.69 |
$-21.80 (-0.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
15m held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 26, 2026 9:45am ET | $213.05 | 49 | $10,439.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 26, 2026 9:55am ET | $212.36 | 49 | $10,405.65 | $10,411.89 |
$-33.80 (-0.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
10m held |
|
| 47 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 27, 2026 3:35pm ET | $228.26 | 45 | $10,271.71 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 28, 2026 1:05pm ET | $218.73 | 45 | $9,842.85 | $9,983.03 |
$-428.86 (-4.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.5h held |
|
| 48 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 1, 2026 11:05am ET | $218.43 | 45 | $9,829.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 1, 2026 1:10pm ET | $218.48 | 45 | $9,831.60 | $9,985.28 |
+$2.25 (+0.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.1h held |
|
| 49 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 3, 2026 11:15am ET | $226.95 | 43 | $9,758.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 3, 2026 1:20pm ET | $227.13 | 43 | $9,766.59 | $9,993.23 |
+$7.95 (+0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.1h held |
|
| 50 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 4, 2026 3:55pm ET | $230.72 | 43 | $9,920.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 8, 2026 9:45am ET | $229.77 | 43 | $9,880.11 | $9,952.38 |
$-40.85 (-0.4%) |
DEATH_CROSS
3.7d held |
|
| 51 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 9, 2026 1:15pm ET | $224.38 | 44 | $9,872.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 9, 2026 2:15pm ET | $224.15 | 44 | $9,862.60 | $9,942.26 |
$-10.12 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1h held |
|
| 52 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 14, 2026 12:50pm ET | $212.24 | 46 | $9,763.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 15, 2026 10:50am ET | $212.22 | 46 | $9,762.12 | $9,941.34 |
$-0.92 (-0.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
22h held |
|
| 53 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 16, 2026 2:10pm ET | $215.92 | 46 | $9,932.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 18, 2026 10:40am ET | $219.20 | 46 | $10,083.20 | $10,092.22 |
+$150.88 (+1.5%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.9d held |
|
| 54 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 23, 2026 1:50pm ET | $225.24 | 44 | $9,910.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $222.12 | 44 | $9,773.06 | $9,954.72 |
$-137.50 (-1.4%) |
DEATH_CROSS
19.7h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$9,954.72
Net Profit/Loss:
$-45.28
Total Return:
-0.45%