RIOT Grace Crossover's Analysis
Last 6 Months: 2026-03-25 to present • 56 trades in period
+0.95%
Last 6 Months Return
$15,427.56
Current Value
36%
Win Rate
$15,281.99
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 2.8
Storm
⛈️ 1 storm day in 7d
RSI(14)
28.4 oversold
20d Trend
-31.1%
5d Trend
-24.1%
EMA20 Dist
-22.9%
ATR%
11.0%
Range Pos
5%
Bounce Ratio
0.4×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.
Strategy Score Scored Sep 25, 2026
27
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
5.6/35
Total Return
14.5/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
1.2/15
Consistency
6.1/10
Raw Quality
27.3/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 27.0
30-Day Momentum
41
+8.6%
30d Return
50%
Win Rate
8
Trades
1.9×
Profit Factor
Quality: 50.3
Conf: 0.81×
Accelerating (+14 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
9,984
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-25 → 2026-09-25
Trading Days
128 days
Data Gaps
None (5 market holidays)
Market Closed (5 days)
2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)
Period Start Capital
$15,281.99
Current Value
$15,427.56
Period P&L
$145.52
Max Drawdown
-34.2%
Sharpe Ratio
0.02
Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)
Trades in Period
56
Winners / Losers
20 /
36
Best Trade
+20.24%
Worst Trade
-5.50%
Avg Trade Return
+0.11%
Avg Hold Time
13.9h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,615,227.73
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$145.52
Net P&L (after fees)
$145.52
Gross Return
+0.95%
Net Return (after fees)
+0.95%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 RIOT Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 128 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 6 Months - 56 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Grace Crossover had $15,281.99 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 26, 2026 2:55pm ET | $13.90 | 1,099 | $15,280.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 26, 2026 3:20pm ET | $13.82 | 1,099 | $15,193.67 | $15,195.22 |
$-86.82 (-0.6%) |
DEATH_CROSS
25m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 9:35am ET | $12.86 | 1,181 | $15,187.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 30, 2026 10:30am ET | $12.27 | 1,181 | $14,496.77 | $14,504.33 |
$-690.89 (-4.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
55m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 3:40pm ET | $12.64 | 1,147 | $14,492.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $11.94 | 1,147 | $13,695.18 | $13,707.16 |
$-797.17 (-5.5%) |
DEATH_CROSS
17.8h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 6, 2026 2:20pm ET | $13.57 | 1,010 | $13,705.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 6, 2026 3:50pm ET | $13.53 | 1,010 | $13,665.30 | $13,666.76 |
$-40.40 (-0.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.5h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 8, 2026 3:50pm ET | $16.10 | 848 | $13,657.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 9, 2026 2:10pm ET | $16.85 | 848 | $14,288.80 | $14,298.52 |
+$631.76 (+4.6%) |
DEATH_CROSS
22.3h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 13, 2026 10:05am ET | $16.85 | 848 | $14,293.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 14, 2026 9:40am ET | $18.42 | 848 | $15,618.63 | $15,624.11 |
+$1,325.59 (+9.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.6h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 16, 2026 1:40pm ET | $16.53 | 945 | $15,620.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 17, 2026 10:45am ET | $17.91 | 945 | $16,924.95 | $16,928.21 |
+$1,304.10 (+8.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
21.1h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 20, 2026 1:25pm ET | $17.88 | 946 | $16,914.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 21, 2026 3:45pm ET | $17.47 | 946 | $16,526.62 | $16,540.35 |
$-387.86 (-2.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.1d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 23, 2026 12:35pm ET | $18.77 | 881 | $16,533.29 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 23, 2026 1:45pm ET | $17.92 | 881 | $15,787.52 | $15,794.58 |
$-745.77 (-4.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.2h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 24, 2026 1:55pm ET | $18.63 | 847 | $15,779.61 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 27, 2026 10:25am ET | $18.61 | 847 | $15,762.67 | $15,777.64 |
$-16.94 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.9d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 28, 2026 1:30pm ET | $16.88 | 934 | $15,765.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 28, 2026 2:10pm ET | $16.74 | 934 | $15,630.49 | $15,642.49 |
$-135.15 (-0.9%) |
DEATH_CROSS
40m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | May 1, 2026 3:25pm ET | $18.67 | 837 | $15,630.97 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 5, 2026 1:10pm ET | $19.43 | 837 | $16,262.91 | $16,274.43 |
+$631.94 (+4.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
3.9d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | May 7, 2026 2:05pm ET | $23.42 | 695 | $16,273.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 8, 2026 9:50am ET | $23.38 | 695 | $16,245.63 | $16,246.63 |
$-27.80 (-0.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
19.8h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | May 12, 2026 1:15pm ET | $24.09 | 674 | $16,240.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 13, 2026 9:45am ET | $24.31 | 674 | $16,381.57 | $16,388.17 |
+$141.54 (+0.9%) |
DEATH_CROSS
20.5h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | May 14, 2026 2:20pm ET | $24.86 | 659 | $16,382.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $23.70 | 659 | $15,618.30 | $15,623.73 |
$-764.44 (-4.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
19.2h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | May 18, 2026 1:15pm ET | $22.96 | 680 | $15,612.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 18, 2026 1:25pm ET | $22.89 | 680 | $15,565.20 | $15,576.13 |
$-47.60 (-0.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
10m held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | May 19, 2026 3:00pm ET | $22.83 | 682 | $15,570.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 19, 2026 3:25pm ET | $22.63 | 682 | $15,433.66 | $15,439.73 |
$-136.40 (-0.9%) |
DEATH_CROSS
25m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | May 22, 2026 9:35am ET | $24.68 | 625 | $15,425.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 22, 2026 10:20am ET | $24.38 | 625 | $15,234.38 | $15,249.10 |
$-190.63 (-1.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
45m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | May 27, 2026 10:00am ET | $26.16 | 582 | $15,225.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 27, 2026 11:55am ET | $26.00 | 582 | $15,129.09 | $15,153.07 |
$-96.03 (-0.6%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.9h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | May 28, 2026 2:20pm ET | $28.17 | 537 | $15,127.29 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 28, 2026 3:50pm ET | $28.08 | 537 | $15,078.96 | $15,104.74 |
$-48.33 (-0.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.5h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 2, 2026 10:50am ET | $28.66 | 527 | $15,103.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 2, 2026 2:25pm ET | $27.44 | 527 | $14,460.88 | $14,461.80 |
$-642.94 (-4.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.6h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 4, 2026 11:15am ET | $27.38 | 528 | $14,456.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 4, 2026 3:55pm ET | $27.54 | 528 | $14,541.12 | $14,546.28 |
+$84.48 (+0.6%) |
DEATH_CROSS
4.7h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $26.43 | 550 | $14,536.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 9, 2026 11:25am ET | $25.31 | 550 | $13,920.50 | $13,930.28 |
$-616.00 (-4.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 10, 2026 2:10pm ET | $24.21 | 575 | $13,920.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 10, 2026 2:25pm ET | $24.02 | 575 | $13,811.50 | $13,821.03 |
$-109.25 (-0.8%) |
DEATH_CROSS
15m held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $28.41 | 486 | $13,807.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 16, 2026 3:00pm ET | $27.83 | 486 | $13,525.38 | $13,539.15 |
$-281.88 (-2.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.2d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 18, 2026 3:45pm ET | $28.07 | 482 | $13,529.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 22, 2026 11:00am ET | $28.81 | 482 | $13,886.42 | $13,895.83 |
+$356.68 (+2.6%) |
DEATH_CROSS
3.8d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 23, 2026 12:10pm ET | $28.90 | 480 | $13,872.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 23, 2026 2:40pm ET | $28.65 | 480 | $13,752.00 | $13,775.83 |
$-120.00 (-0.9%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.5h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 24, 2026 3:55pm ET | $27.31 | 504 | $13,761.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 25, 2026 9:40am ET | $26.67 | 504 | $13,439.16 | $13,453.27 |
$-322.56 (-2.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
17.8h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 26, 2026 12:30pm ET | $28.07 | 479 | $13,445.53 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 26, 2026 2:35pm ET | $28.13 | 479 | $13,471.88 | $13,479.62 |
+$26.35 (+0.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.1h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 30, 2026 1:00pm ET | $27.26 | 494 | $13,466.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 30, 2026 2:40pm ET | $27.05 | 494 | $13,360.23 | $13,373.41 |
$-106.21 (-0.8%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.7h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 1, 2026 3:10pm ET | $24.73 | 540 | $13,354.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 1, 2026 3:20pm ET | $24.60 | 540 | $13,284.00 | $13,303.21 |
$-70.20 (-0.5%) |
DEATH_CROSS
10m held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 7, 2026 12:05pm ET | $21.50 | 618 | $13,287.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 7, 2026 2:45pm ET | $21.74 | 618 | $13,432.29 | $13,448.50 |
+$145.29 (+1.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.7h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 9, 2026 2:50pm ET | $21.96 | 612 | $13,439.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 9, 2026 3:35pm ET | $21.79 | 612 | $13,335.48 | $13,344.46 |
$-104.04 (-0.8%) |
DEATH_CROSS
45m held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 10, 2026 3:45pm ET | $21.25 | 628 | $13,341.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 13, 2026 9:45am ET | $20.39 | 628 | $12,804.92 | $12,807.52 |
$-536.94 (-4.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 15, 2026 1:00pm ET | $19.94 | 642 | $12,800.39 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 15, 2026 3:05pm ET | $20.01 | 642 | $12,848.92 | $12,856.06 |
+$48.54 (+0.4%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.1h held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 20, 2026 9:35am ET | $19.21 | 669 | $12,851.49 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 21, 2026 10:00am ET | $20.85 | 669 | $13,948.65 | $13,953.22 |
+$1,097.16 (+8.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 22, 2026 3:30pm ET | $23.40 | 596 | $13,943.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 23, 2026 12:10pm ET | $24.13 | 596 | $14,378.50 | $14,388.30 |
+$435.08 (+3.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
20.7h held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 27, 2026 9:45am ET | $22.72 | 633 | $14,381.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 27, 2026 10:30am ET | $21.73 | 633 | $13,751.93 | $13,758.47 |
$-629.83 (-4.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
45m held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 28, 2026 11:10am ET | $21.03 | 654 | $13,750.61 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 28, 2026 12:25pm ET | $20.97 | 654 | $13,714.38 | $13,722.24 |
$-36.23 (-0.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.3h held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 29, 2026 2:45pm ET | $19.54 | 702 | $13,717.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 29, 2026 3:35pm ET | $18.63 | 702 | $13,074.75 | $13,079.91 |
$-642.33 (-4.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
50m held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 31, 2026 9:30am ET | $23.04 | 567 | $13,063.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 31, 2026 9:40am ET | $22.00 | 567 | $12,474.00 | $12,490.23 |
$-589.68 (-4.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
10m held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 3, 2026 10:10am ET | $20.68 | 603 | $12,470.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 3, 2026 12:55pm ET | $21.01 | 603 | $12,672.04 | $12,692.23 |
+$202.00 (+1.6%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.8h held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 5, 2026 3:05pm ET | $22.04 | 575 | $12,673.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $21.01 | 575 | $12,080.75 | $12,099.98 |
$-592.25 (-4.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18.4h held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $22.10 | 547 | $12,088.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 7, 2026 9:55am ET | $21.21 | 547 | $11,601.87 | $11,613.15 |
$-486.83 (-4.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
25m held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 10, 2026 3:20pm ET | $19.44 | 597 | $11,608.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 11, 2026 9:30am ET | $23.38 | 597 | $13,957.86 | $13,962.34 |
+$2,349.19 (+20.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
18.2h held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 17, 2026 9:40am ET | $19.31 | 723 | $13,957.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 17, 2026 1:35pm ET | $19.47 | 723 | $14,076.81 | $14,081.63 |
+$119.29 (+0.9%) |
DEATH_CROSS
3.9h held |
|
| 47 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 19, 2026 10:55am ET | $18.91 | 744 | $14,069.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 19, 2026 1:10pm ET | $19.20 | 744 | $14,284.80 | $14,297.39 |
+$215.76 (+1.5%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.3h held |
|
| 48 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 21, 2026 2:25pm ET | $19.98 | 715 | $14,282.13 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 21, 2026 2:35pm ET | $19.85 | 715 | $14,196.32 | $14,211.59 |
$-85.80 (-0.6%) |
DEATH_CROSS
10m held |
|
| 49 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 26, 2026 3:25pm ET | $20.72 | 685 | $14,193.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 27, 2026 11:45am ET | $21.16 | 685 | $14,494.60 | $14,512.99 |
+$301.40 (+2.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
20.3h held |
|
| 50 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 31, 2026 12:45pm ET | $18.44 | 786 | $14,497.77 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 1, 2026 9:35am ET | $18.26 | 786 | $14,353.07 | $14,368.29 |
$-144.70 (-1.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
20.8h held |
|
| 51 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 2, 2026 11:40am ET | $17.86 | 804 | $14,359.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 3, 2026 10:15am ET | $19.43 | 804 | $15,624.86 | $15,633.71 |
+$1,265.42 (+8.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.6h held |
|
| 52 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 8, 2026 2:25pm ET | $22.60 | 691 | $15,616.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 9, 2026 12:15pm ET | $21.67 | 691 | $14,977.42 | $14,994.53 |
$-639.18 (-4.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.8h held |
|
| 53 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 10, 2026 1:50pm ET | $21.29 | 704 | $14,988.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 11, 2026 12:50pm ET | $21.58 | 704 | $15,195.77 | $15,202.14 |
+$207.61 (+1.4%) |
DEATH_CROSS
23h held |
|
| 54 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $21.32 | 713 | $15,201.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 17, 2026 2:45pm ET | $21.77 | 713 | $15,525.57 | $15,526.55 |
+$324.41 (+2.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
5.3h held |
|
| 55 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 21, 2026 2:25pm ET | $24.58 | 631 | $15,513.13 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 21, 2026 3:05pm ET | $24.51 | 631 | $15,468.96 | $15,482.38 |
$-44.17 (-0.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
40m held |
|
| 56 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 24, 2026 2:45pm ET | $23.99 | 645 | $15,473.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 24, 2026 3:25pm ET | $23.91 | 645 | $15,418.73 | $15,427.56 |
$-54.82 (-0.4%) |
DEATH_CROSS
40m held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$15,427.56
Net Profit/Loss:
+$5,427.56
Total Return:
+54.28%