TLT Grace Crossover's Analysis
Last 6 Months: 2026-03-24 to present • 57 trades in period
-4.77%
Last 6 Months Return
$8,926.33
Current Value
26%
Win Rate
$9,373.75
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
49.9 neutral
20d Trend
-0.2%
5d Trend
+0.1%
EMA20 Dist
+0.1%
ATR%
0.7%
Range Pos
20%
Bounce Ratio
2.0×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
4
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
3.6/10
Raw Quality
3.6/100
× Confidence 1.00
= 3.6
30-Day Momentum
16
+0.7%
30d Return
22%
Win Rate
9
Trades
1.5×
Profit Factor
Quality: 18.7
Conf: 0.84×
Accelerating (+12 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
9,984
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
128 days
Data Gaps
None (5 market holidays)
Market Closed (5 days)
2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)
Period Start Capital
$9,373.75
Current Value
$8,926.33
Period P&L
$-447.44
Max Drawdown
-7.1%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.24
Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)
Trades in Period
57
Winners / Losers
15 /
42
Best Trade
+1.54%
Worst Trade
-1.44%
Avg Trade Return
-0.09%
Avg Hold Time
21.3h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,029,031.43
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-447.44
Net P&L (after fees)
$-447.44
Gross Return
-4.77%
Net Return (after fees)
-4.77%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 TLT Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 128 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 6 Months - 57 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Grace Crossover had $9,373.75 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $86.18 | 109 | $9,393.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $85.69 | 109 | $9,340.75 | $9,366.13 |
$-52.32 (-0.6%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 25, 2026 1:40pm ET | $86.83 | 107 | $9,291.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 25, 2026 1:55pm ET | $86.73 | 107 | $9,279.95 | $9,354.73 |
$-11.40 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
15m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 26, 2026 2:45pm ET | $86.13 | 108 | $9,301.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $85.48 | 108 | $9,231.84 | $9,285.07 |
$-69.66 (-0.7%) |
DEATH_CROSS
18.8h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 9:30am ET | $86.62 | 107 | $9,268.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 31, 2026 3:00pm ET | $86.89 | 107 | $9,296.70 | $9,313.42 |
+$28.35 (+0.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.2d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 2, 2026 10:00am ET | $86.54 | 107 | $9,259.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 2, 2026 12:10pm ET | $86.61 | 107 | $9,266.83 | $9,320.47 |
+$7.05 (+0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.2h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 6, 2026 2:15pm ET | $86.73 | 107 | $9,280.11 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 12:40pm ET | $86.15 | 107 | $9,218.05 | $9,258.41 |
$-62.06 (-0.7%) |
DEATH_CROSS
22.4h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 11:30am ET | $86.62 | 106 | $9,181.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 9, 2026 2:00pm ET | $86.88 | 106 | $9,208.75 | $9,285.44 |
+$27.03 (+0.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.5h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 10, 2026 2:00pm ET | $86.44 | 107 | $9,249.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 13, 2026 9:35am ET | $86.43 | 107 | $9,248.54 | $9,284.90 |
$-0.54 (-0.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.8d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 15, 2026 1:25pm ET | $86.87 | 106 | $9,208.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 15, 2026 1:35pm ET | $86.83 | 106 | $9,203.98 | $9,280.66 |
$-4.24 (-0.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
10m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $87.04 | 106 | $9,226.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 20, 2026 9:40am ET | $86.99 | 106 | $9,220.41 | $9,274.83 |
$-5.83 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
3d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 21, 2026 12:50pm ET | $86.82 | 106 | $9,203.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 21, 2026 2:20pm ET | $86.68 | 106 | $9,188.61 | $9,259.99 |
$-14.84 (-0.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.5h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 23, 2026 2:30pm ET | $86.69 | 106 | $9,189.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 24, 2026 11:30am ET | $86.61 | 106 | $9,181.19 | $9,252.04 |
$-7.95 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
21h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 27, 2026 2:35pm ET | $86.36 | 107 | $9,241.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 27, 2026 3:05pm ET | $86.29 | 107 | $9,232.50 | $9,243.48 |
$-8.56 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
30m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 29, 2026 1:00pm ET | $85.85 | 107 | $9,185.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2026 2:10pm ET | $85.72 | 107 | $9,172.57 | $9,230.11 |
$-13.38 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.2h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 30, 2026 3:15pm ET | $85.79 | 107 | $9,179.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 30, 2026 3:25pm ET | $85.74 | 107 | $9,174.18 | $9,225.29 |
$-4.82 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
10m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | May 4, 2026 1:45pm ET | $84.93 | 108 | $9,172.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 4, 2026 2:20pm ET | $84.91 | 108 | $9,170.28 | $9,222.59 |
$-2.70 (-0.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
35m held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | May 6, 2026 3:10pm ET | $86.11 | 107 | $9,213.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 7, 2026 11:05am ET | $86.11 | 107 | $9,213.77 | $9,223.12 |
+$0.53 (+0.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
19.9h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | May 8, 2026 12:15pm ET | $86.09 | 107 | $9,211.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 8, 2026 2:40pm ET | $86.06 | 107 | $9,208.42 | $9,219.91 |
$-3.21 (-0.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.4h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | May 13, 2026 12:25pm ET | $84.84 | 108 | $9,162.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 18, 2026 10:25am ET | $83.62 | 108 | $9,030.96 | $9,088.15 |
$-131.76 (-1.4%) |
DEATH_CROSS
4.9d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | May 19, 2026 12:30pm ET | $83.11 | 109 | $9,059.53 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 19, 2026 2:30pm ET | $82.92 | 109 | $9,038.28 | $9,066.90 |
$-21.25 (-0.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | May 20, 2026 2:50pm ET | $83.85 | 108 | $9,055.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $83.62 | 108 | $9,030.96 | $9,042.06 |
$-24.84 (-0.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
18.7h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | May 26, 2026 2:30pm ET | $85.05 | 106 | $9,015.13 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 27, 2026 11:50am ET | $85.25 | 106 | $9,036.50 | $9,063.43 |
+$21.37 (+0.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
21.3h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | May 29, 2026 12:35pm ET | $85.82 | 105 | $9,011.62 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 29, 2026 1:30pm ET | $85.79 | 105 | $9,007.95 | $9,059.76 |
$-3.67 (-0.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
55m held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 3, 2026 1:10pm ET | $85.25 | 106 | $9,036.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 4, 2026 1:00pm ET | $85.54 | 106 | $9,067.77 | $9,090.87 |
+$31.11 (+0.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
23.8h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 5, 2026 3:00pm ET | $85.24 | 106 | $9,034.91 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 8, 2026 3:00pm ET | $84.87 | 106 | $8,996.22 | $9,052.18 |
$-38.69 (-0.4%) |
DEATH_CROSS
3d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 11, 2026 9:30am ET | $85.18 | 106 | $9,028.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 11, 2026 12:05pm ET | $85.18 | 106 | $9,028.55 | $9,052.18 |
$0.00 (+0.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.6h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $85.95 | 105 | $9,024.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 15, 2026 11:10am ET | $85.85 | 105 | $9,014.26 | $9,041.69 |
$-10.49 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.7h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 17, 2026 10:00am ET | $86.36 | 104 | $8,980.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 17, 2026 1:10pm ET | $86.36 | 104 | $8,980.92 | $9,041.69 |
$0.00 (+0.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
3.2h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $87.16 | 103 | $8,977.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 25, 2026 11:10am ET | $87.52 | 103 | $9,014.56 | $9,078.77 |
+$37.08 (+0.4%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.1d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 26, 2026 3:50pm ET | $87.32 | 103 | $8,994.47 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 30, 2026 9:30am ET | $87.15 | 103 | $8,976.44 | $9,060.74 |
$-18.03 (-0.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
3.7d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 6, 2026 12:30pm ET | $85.33 | 106 | $9,044.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 6, 2026 12:45pm ET | $85.29 | 106 | $9,041.27 | $9,057.51 |
$-3.23 (-0.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
15m held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 9, 2026 10:35am ET | $84.38 | 107 | $9,028.13 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $84.19 | 107 | $9,008.33 | $9,037.72 |
$-19.79 (-0.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
4d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $84.18 | 107 | $9,007.79 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 14, 2026 11:50am ET | $84.15 | 107 | $9,004.58 | $9,034.51 |
$-3.21 (-0.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.3h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 15, 2026 1:10pm ET | $84.29 | 107 | $9,019.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 15, 2026 1:35pm ET | $84.26 | 107 | $9,016.35 | $9,031.57 |
$-2.94 (-0.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
25m held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 17, 2026 2:25pm ET | $84.60 | 106 | $8,967.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $83.74 | 106 | $8,876.39 | $8,940.36 |
$-91.21 (-1.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
3.8d held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 22, 2026 11:40am ET | $83.62 | 106 | $8,863.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 23, 2026 1:55pm ET | $83.13 | 106 | $8,811.25 | $8,887.89 |
$-52.47 (-0.6%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.1d held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 24, 2026 3:40pm ET | $83.36 | 106 | $8,836.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 27, 2026 1:40pm ET | $83.68 | 106 | $8,870.61 | $8,922.34 |
+$34.45 (+0.4%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.9d held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 28, 2026 3:50pm ET | $84.23 | 105 | $8,844.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $84.11 | 105 | $8,831.03 | $8,909.20 |
$-13.14 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
17.7h held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 30, 2026 12:20pm ET | $82.82 | 107 | $8,861.21 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 31, 2026 9:30am ET | $82.44 | 107 | $8,821.61 | $8,869.61 |
$-39.59 (-0.4%) |
DEATH_CROSS
21.2h held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 3, 2026 2:10pm ET | $82.25 | 107 | $8,800.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 3, 2026 3:30pm ET | $82.21 | 107 | $8,795.94 | $8,864.80 |
$-4.81 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.3h held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 5, 2026 1:05pm ET | $82.93 | 106 | $8,790.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 5, 2026 3:00pm ET | $82.96 | 106 | $8,793.23 | $8,867.45 |
+$2.65 (+0.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.9h held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 6, 2026 3:15pm ET | $82.50 | 107 | $8,828.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 7, 2026 11:00am ET | $82.58 | 107 | $8,836.59 | $8,876.01 |
+$8.56 (+0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
19.8h held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 11, 2026 9:35am ET | $82.27 | 107 | $8,802.89 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 11, 2026 11:35am ET | $82.21 | 107 | $8,795.94 | $8,869.06 |
$-6.95 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2h held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 12, 2026 1:15pm ET | $82.31 | 107 | $8,806.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 12, 2026 1:35pm ET | $82.25 | 107 | $8,800.67 | $8,863.10 |
$-5.96 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
20m held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 13, 2026 2:15pm ET | $82.63 | 107 | $8,841.41 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 13, 2026 3:10pm ET | $82.57 | 107 | $8,834.46 | $8,856.15 |
$-6.95 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
55m held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 18, 2026 10:05am ET | $81.44 | 108 | $8,796.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 18, 2026 3:45pm ET | $81.68 | 108 | $8,821.87 | $8,881.96 |
+$25.81 (+0.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
5.7h held |
|
| 47 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 20, 2026 2:00pm ET | $82.36 | 107 | $8,812.83 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 20, 2026 2:15pm ET | $82.32 | 107 | $8,808.24 | $8,877.37 |
$-4.59 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
15m held |
|
| 48 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 21, 2026 2:45pm ET | $82.02 | 108 | $8,858.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 25, 2026 2:20pm ET | $83.29 | 108 | $8,994.78 | $9,013.99 |
+$136.62 (+1.5%) |
DEATH_CROSS
4d held |
|
| 49 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 26, 2026 3:00pm ET | $83.20 | 108 | $8,985.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 27, 2026 10:10am ET | $83.17 | 108 | $8,982.33 | $9,010.72 |
$-3.27 (-0.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
19.2h held |
|
| 50 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 1, 2026 10:35am ET | $82.35 | 109 | $8,975.61 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 2, 2026 2:30pm ET | $81.85 | 109 | $8,921.11 | $8,956.22 |
$-54.50 (-0.6%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.2d held |
|
| 51 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 4, 2026 9:35am ET | $82.38 | 108 | $8,897.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 4, 2026 11:00am ET | $82.24 | 108 | $8,881.92 | $8,941.10 |
$-15.12 (-0.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.4h held |
|
| 52 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 8, 2026 1:05pm ET | $82.25 | 108 | $8,883.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 8, 2026 1:30pm ET | $82.22 | 108 | $8,879.76 | $8,937.86 |
$-3.24 (-0.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
25m held |
|
| 53 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 10, 2026 12:50pm ET | $81.11 | 110 | $8,922.09 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 11, 2026 12:00pm ET | $81.10 | 110 | $8,921.00 | $8,936.77 |
$-1.09 (-0.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
23.2h held |
|
| 54 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 17, 2026 9:35am ET | $81.50 | 109 | $8,883.39 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 17, 2026 1:05pm ET | $81.59 | 109 | $8,893.31 | $8,946.69 |
+$9.92 (+0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
3.5h held |
|
| 55 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 18, 2026 1:35pm ET | $81.24 | 110 | $8,936.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 18, 2026 3:25pm ET | $81.19 | 110 | $8,930.90 | $8,941.19 |
$-5.50 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.8h held |
|
| 56 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 22, 2026 1:45pm ET | $81.65 | 109 | $8,899.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 22, 2026 2:55pm ET | $81.64 | 109 | $8,898.22 | $8,939.57 |
$-1.62 (-0.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.2h held |
|
| 57 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 23, 2026 3:10pm ET | $80.46 | 111 | $8,930.51 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 24, 2026 10:20am ET | $80.34 | 111 | $8,917.26 | $8,926.33 |
$-13.24 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
19.2h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$8,926.33
Net Profit/Loss:
$-1,073.67
Total Return:
-10.74%