TQQQ Grace Crossover's Analysis
Last 6 Months: 2026-03-25 to present • 55 trades in period
-12.53%
Last 6 Months Return
$7,189.83
Current Value
29%
Win Rate
$8,219.68
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
31.4 neutral
20d Trend
-11.9%
5d Trend
-13.2%
EMA20 Dist
-11.3%
ATR%
5.7%
Range Pos
9%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
4
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.2/10
Raw Quality
4.2/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 4.2
30-Day Momentum
25
+4.7%
30d Return
38%
Win Rate
8
Trades
1.5×
Profit Factor
Quality: 30.7
Conf: 0.81×
Accelerating (+21 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
9,906
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
127 days
Data Gaps
None (5 market holidays)
Market Closed (5 days)
2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)
Period Start Capital
$8,219.68
Current Value
$7,189.83
Period P&L
$-1,029.84
Max Drawdown
-36.1%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.07
Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)
Trades in Period
55
Winners / Losers
16 /
39
Best Trade
+8.31%
Worst Trade
-5.48%
Avg Trade Return
-0.20%
Avg Hold Time
20.7h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$863,270.21
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-1,029.84
Net P&L (after fees)
$-1,029.84
Gross Return
-12.53%
Net Return (after fees)
-12.53%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 TQQQ Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 127 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 6 Months - 55 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Grace Crossover had $8,219.68 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 25, 2026 9:30am ET | $44.79 | 183 | $8,197.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 25, 2026 11:20am ET | $44.20 | 183 | $8,088.60 | $8,110.98 |
$-108.68 (-1.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.8h held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 9:35am ET | $39.49 | 205 | $8,094.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 30, 2026 9:55am ET | $38.86 | 205 | $7,966.30 | $7,982.86 |
$-128.13 (-1.6%) |
DEATH_CROSS
20m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 3:45pm ET | $43.40 | 183 | $7,942.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $41.02 | 183 | $7,506.66 | $7,547.32 |
$-435.54 (-5.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
17.8h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 6, 2026 2:20pm ET | $43.92 | 171 | $7,511.17 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 11:00am ET | $42.11 | 171 | $7,200.83 | $7,236.97 |
$-310.35 (-4.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20.7h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $48.10 | 150 | $7,215.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 9, 2026 10:10am ET | $47.61 | 150 | $7,141.50 | $7,163.47 |
$-73.50 (-1.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
40m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 10, 2026 3:05pm ET | $49.15 | 145 | $7,126.39 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $48.85 | 145 | $7,083.25 | $7,120.33 |
$-43.14 (-0.6%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.8d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2026 2:40pm ET | $52.99 | 134 | $7,101.33 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 16, 2026 1:10pm ET | $56.33 | 134 | $7,548.23 | $7,567.23 |
+$446.90 (+6.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.9d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 17, 2026 3:40pm ET | $58.49 | 129 | $7,544.57 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 21, 2026 11:00am ET | $57.90 | 129 | $7,468.46 | $7,491.12 |
$-76.11 (-1.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
3.8d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $60.96 | 122 | $7,437.11 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 27, 2026 2:55pm ET | $62.30 | 122 | $7,600.60 | $7,654.61 |
+$163.49 (+2.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
3.2d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 29, 2026 1:50pm ET | $61.22 | 125 | $7,652.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2026 2:05pm ET | $60.99 | 125 | $7,623.74 | $7,625.85 |
$-28.76 (-0.4%) |
DEATH_CROSS
15m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | May 1, 2026 1:10pm ET | $65.39 | 116 | $7,585.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 1, 2026 2:35pm ET | $65.33 | 116 | $7,578.16 | $7,618.19 |
$-7.66 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.4h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | May 4, 2026 3:15pm ET | $64.90 | 117 | $7,593.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 6, 2026 10:45am ET | $70.29 | 117 | $8,224.51 | $8,249.40 |
+$631.21 (+8.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.8d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | May 7, 2026 3:45pm ET | $71.35 | 115 | $8,204.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 11, 2026 11:50am ET | $77.10 | 115 | $8,866.50 | $8,911.22 |
+$661.82 (+8.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.8d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | May 12, 2026 1:35pm ET | $72.92 | 122 | $8,895.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 13, 2026 3:55pm ET | $77.18 | 122 | $9,416.57 | $9,432.16 |
+$520.94 (+5.9%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.1d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | May 15, 2026 12:45pm ET | $76.20 | 123 | $9,373.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 15, 2026 2:45pm ET | $76.41 | 123 | $9,398.43 | $9,457.57 |
+$25.41 (+0.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | May 18, 2026 3:35pm ET | $73.26 | 129 | $9,450.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 19, 2026 10:00am ET | $72.94 | 129 | $9,409.26 | $9,416.29 |
$-41.28 (-0.4%) |
DEATH_CROSS
18.4h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | May 21, 2026 1:00pm ET | $75.68 | 124 | $9,384.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 21, 2026 2:55pm ET | $75.89 | 124 | $9,410.36 | $9,442.37 |
+$26.08 (+0.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.9h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | May 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $80.67 | 117 | $9,438.39 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 26, 2026 11:55am ET | $80.61 | 117 | $9,431.37 | $9,435.35 |
$-7.02 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.4h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | May 27, 2026 12:20pm ET | $81.27 | 116 | $9,427.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 28, 2026 9:35am ET | $81.18 | 116 | $9,416.88 | $9,424.97 |
$-10.38 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
21.3h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | May 29, 2026 12:00pm ET | $84.66 | 111 | $9,397.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 29, 2026 1:05pm ET | $84.50 | 111 | $9,379.50 | $9,407.33 |
$-17.64 (-0.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.1h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 2, 2026 10:10am ET | $86.46 | 108 | $9,337.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 2, 2026 10:30am ET | $86.00 | 108 | $9,288.22 | $9,357.87 |
$-49.46 (-0.5%) |
DEATH_CROSS
20m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 3, 2026 1:45pm ET | $86.50 | 108 | $9,341.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $83.37 | 108 | $9,003.96 | $9,020.37 |
$-337.50 (-3.6%) |
DEATH_CROSS
19.8h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 8, 2026 2:10pm ET | $77.41 | 116 | $8,979.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 9, 2026 10:20am ET | $75.85 | 116 | $8,798.60 | $8,839.41 |
$-180.96 (-2.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
20.2h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 10, 2026 2:05pm ET | $71.35 | 123 | $8,776.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 11, 2026 11:00am ET | $69.95 | 123 | $8,603.85 | $8,667.21 |
$-172.20 (-2.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
20.9h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 12, 2026 12:15pm ET | $77.40 | 111 | $8,591.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 12, 2026 2:20pm ET | $77.23 | 111 | $8,572.53 | $8,648.34 |
$-18.87 (-0.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.1h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 17, 2026 9:45am ET | $81.79 | 105 | $8,587.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 17, 2026 9:55am ET | $80.25 | 105 | $8,426.27 | $8,487.19 |
$-161.15 (-1.9%) |
DEATH_CROSS
10m held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 18, 2026 2:50pm ET | $82.95 | 102 | $8,460.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 22, 2026 10:35am ET | $82.99 | 102 | $8,464.98 | $8,491.37 |
+$4.18 (+0.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
3.8d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 23, 2026 1:25pm ET | $76.39 | 111 | $8,478.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 24, 2026 12:30pm ET | $74.88 | 111 | $8,311.52 | $8,324.16 |
$-167.21 (-2.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
23.1h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 26, 2026 11:30am ET | $74.11 | 112 | $8,300.31 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 26, 2026 1:50pm ET | $73.63 | 112 | $8,246.00 | $8,269.85 |
$-54.31 (-0.7%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.3h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 2, 2026 9:55am ET | $78.61 | 105 | $8,254.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 2, 2026 10:50am ET | $75.40 | 105 | $7,917.00 | $7,932.80 |
$-337.05 (-4.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
55m held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 6, 2026 2:50pm ET | $76.63 | 103 | $7,892.89 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 6, 2026 3:55pm ET | $76.39 | 103 | $7,868.17 | $7,908.08 |
$-24.72 (-0.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.1h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 10, 2026 10:05am ET | $76.40 | 103 | $7,869.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 10, 2026 11:45am ET | $75.69 | 103 | $7,796.58 | $7,835.46 |
$-72.62 (-0.9%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.7h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $74.97 | 104 | $7,796.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 14, 2026 2:50pm ET | $75.26 | 104 | $7,827.04 | $7,865.62 |
+$30.16 (+0.4%) |
DEATH_CROSS
5.3h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 15, 2026 3:40pm ET | $74.12 | 106 | $7,856.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $72.97 | 106 | $7,734.82 | $7,743.72 |
$-121.90 (-1.6%) |
DEATH_CROSS
17.8h held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 17, 2026 11:55am ET | $68.43 | 113 | $7,732.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 17, 2026 2:00pm ET | $68.44 | 113 | $7,734.28 | $7,745.43 |
+$1.71 (+0.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.1h held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $70.59 | 109 | $7,694.31 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $67.06 | 109 | $7,309.54 | $7,360.66 |
$-384.77 (-5.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 24, 2026 9:35am ET | $66.28 | 111 | $7,357.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 24, 2026 12:55pm ET | $65.35 | 111 | $7,253.86 | $7,257.44 |
$-103.22 (-1.4%) |
DEATH_CROSS
3.3h held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 27, 2026 2:00pm ET | $62.78 | 115 | $7,220.27 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 27, 2026 2:35pm ET | $62.28 | 115 | $7,162.21 | $7,199.38 |
$-58.06 (-0.8%) |
DEATH_CROSS
35m held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 30, 2026 9:45am ET | $61.95 | 116 | $7,186.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 31, 2026 10:10am ET | $62.60 | 116 | $7,261.60 | $7,274.78 |
+$75.40 (+1.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1d held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 5, 2026 3:20pm ET | $74.04 | 98 | $7,256.41 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $71.07 | 98 | $6,964.86 | $6,983.23 |
$-291.55 (-4.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18.2h held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $73.61 | 94 | $6,919.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 7, 2026 12:30pm ET | $73.36 | 94 | $6,895.85 | $6,959.74 |
$-23.49 (-0.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
3h held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 10, 2026 3:00pm ET | $74.10 | 93 | $6,890.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 10, 2026 3:50pm ET | $73.92 | 93 | $6,874.56 | $6,943.46 |
$-16.28 (-0.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
50m held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 13, 2026 9:35am ET | $75.41 | 92 | $6,937.71 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 13, 2026 11:55am ET | $76.68 | 92 | $7,054.10 | $7,059.85 |
+$116.39 (+1.7%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.3h held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 14, 2026 2:10pm ET | $76.36 | 92 | $7,025.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 14, 2026 2:30pm ET | $76.25 | 92 | $7,014.54 | $7,049.27 |
$-10.58 (-0.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
20m held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 18, 2026 12:50pm ET | $73.12 | 96 | $7,019.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 19, 2026 12:55pm ET | $72.39 | 96 | $6,949.67 | $6,979.42 |
$-69.85 (-1.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1d held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 21, 2026 10:50am ET | $70.55 | 98 | $6,913.91 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 21, 2026 2:00pm ET | $71.07 | 98 | $6,964.85 | $7,030.36 |
+$50.94 (+0.7%) |
DEATH_CROSS
3.2h held |
|
| 47 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 24, 2026 2:10pm ET | $69.56 | 101 | $7,025.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 25, 2026 1:05pm ET | $70.05 | 101 | $7,075.05 | $7,080.36 |
+$50.00 (+0.7%) |
DEATH_CROSS
22.9h held |
|
| 48 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 27, 2026 3:25pm ET | $72.63 | 97 | $7,044.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 28, 2026 10:10am ET | $72.56 | 97 | $7,038.32 | $7,074.05 |
$-6.31 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
18.8h held |
|
| 49 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 31, 2026 12:50pm ET | $71.32 | 99 | $7,060.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 31, 2026 1:30pm ET | $71.13 | 99 | $7,041.38 | $7,054.75 |
$-19.30 (-0.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
40m held |
|
| 50 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 1, 2026 3:55pm ET | $69.11 | 102 | $7,048.71 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $68.90 | 102 | $7,027.73 | $7,033.77 |
$-20.98 (-0.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
17.6h held |
|
| 51 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 9, 2026 1:10pm ET | $71.55 | 98 | $7,011.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 9, 2026 2:15pm ET | $71.45 | 98 | $7,002.09 | $7,023.96 |
$-9.81 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.1h held |
|
| 52 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 11, 2026 9:30am ET | $71.02 | 98 | $6,959.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $67.60 | 98 | $6,624.80 | $6,688.80 |
$-335.16 (-4.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 53 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 15, 2026 2:15pm ET | $68.09 | 98 | $6,672.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 16, 2026 1:00pm ET | $69.36 | 98 | $6,797.37 | $6,813.35 |
+$124.55 (+1.9%) |
DEATH_CROSS
22.8h held |
|
| 54 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 17, 2026 3:05pm ET | $71.33 | 95 | $6,776.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 21, 2026 10:35am ET | $77.07 | 95 | $7,321.18 | $7,357.70 |
+$544.35 (+8.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.8d held |
|
| 55 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 23, 2026 1:50pm ET | $78.50 | 93 | $7,300.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $76.70 | 93 | $7,133.10 | $7,189.83 |
$-167.87 (-2.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
19.7h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$7,189.83
Net Profit/Loss:
$-2,810.17
Total Return:
-28.10%