XLF Grace Crossover's Analysis
Last 6 Months: 2026-03-24 to present • 55 trades in period
+4.96%
Last 6 Months Return
$10,863.69
Current Value
35%
Win Rate
$10,350.76
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
44.4 neutral
20d Trend
-1.7%
5d Trend
+0.1%
EMA20 Dist
-0.7%
ATR%
1.2%
Range Pos
44%
Bounce Ratio
1.3×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
19
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
4.4/35
Total Return
8.2/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
1.2/15
Consistency
4.9/10
Raw Quality
18.7/100
× Confidence 1.00
= 18.6
30-Day Momentum
19
+0.7%
30d Return
30%
Win Rate
10
Trades
1.6×
Profit Factor
Quality: 21.3
Conf: 0.87×
Cooling (-0 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
9,984
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
128 days
Data Gaps
None (5 market holidays)
Market Closed (5 days)
2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)
Period Start Capital
$10,350.76
Current Value
$10,863.69
Period P&L
$512.99
Max Drawdown
-6.8%
Sharpe Ratio
0.13
Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)
Trades in Period
55
Winners / Losers
19 /
36
Best Trade
+3.04%
Worst Trade
-1.10%
Avg Trade Return
+0.09%
Avg Hold Time
18.1h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,152,705.48
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$512.99
Net P&L (after fees)
$512.99
Gross Return
+4.96%
Net Return (after fees)
+4.96%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 XLF Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 128 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 6 Months - 55 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Grace Crossover had $10,350.76 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 24, 2026 10:55am ET | $49.33 | 209 | $10,308.93 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 24, 2026 1:05pm ET | $49.29 | 209 | $10,302.57 | $10,344.35 |
$-6.35 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.2h held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 25, 2026 2:40pm ET | $49.38 | 209 | $10,321.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 25, 2026 3:00pm ET | $49.34 | 209 | $10,312.06 | $10,334.95 |
$-9.40 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
20m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 9:35am ET | $48.30 | 213 | $10,287.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 31, 2026 10:55am ET | $48.53 | 213 | $10,335.83 | $10,382.88 |
+$47.93 (+0.5%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.1d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 2, 2026 3:50pm ET | $49.54 | 209 | $10,354.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $49.63 | 209 | $10,371.63 | $10,399.83 |
+$16.95 (+0.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
4.7d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 8, 2026 1:45pm ET | $51.17 | 203 | $10,388.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $50.99 | 203 | $10,350.97 | $10,362.28 |
$-37.55 (-0.4%) |
DEATH_CROSS
19.8h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 13, 2026 10:25am ET | $50.79 | 204 | $10,361.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 14, 2026 12:55pm ET | $51.76 | 204 | $10,558.02 | $10,559.14 |
+$196.86 (+1.9%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.1d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 16, 2026 9:45am ET | $52.29 | 201 | $10,511.29 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 16, 2026 12:35pm ET | $52.08 | 201 | $10,469.08 | $10,516.93 |
$-42.21 (-0.4%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.8h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 20, 2026 1:10pm ET | $52.59 | 199 | $10,465.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 20, 2026 1:45pm ET | $52.53 | 199 | $10,452.48 | $10,504.06 |
$-12.87 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
35m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 21, 2026 3:20pm ET | $52.44 | 200 | $10,489.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 22, 2026 10:35am ET | $52.28 | 200 | $10,455.00 | $10,470.06 |
$-34.00 (-0.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
19.3h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 23, 2026 10:45am ET | $52.13 | 200 | $10,426.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $51.59 | 200 | $10,318.00 | $10,362.06 |
$-108.00 (-1.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
22.8h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 27, 2026 1:35pm ET | $51.80 | 200 | $10,360.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 28, 2026 12:40pm ET | $52.03 | 200 | $10,407.00 | $10,409.06 |
+$47.00 (+0.5%) |
DEATH_CROSS
23.1h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 29, 2026 1:50pm ET | $51.88 | 200 | $10,376.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 30, 2026 9:30am ET | $51.47 | 200 | $10,294.00 | $10,327.06 |
$-82.00 (-0.8%) |
DEATH_CROSS
19.7h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | May 4, 2026 10:25am ET | $52.13 | 198 | $10,320.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 5, 2026 10:35am ET | $51.55 | 198 | $10,206.90 | $10,213.21 |
$-113.85 (-1.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | May 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $51.98 | 196 | $10,188.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 7, 2026 9:55am ET | $51.79 | 196 | $10,150.84 | $10,175.97 |
$-37.24 (-0.4%) |
DEATH_CROSS
25m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | May 11, 2026 9:55am ET | $51.34 | 198 | $10,165.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 11, 2026 10:50am ET | $51.23 | 198 | $10,143.54 | $10,154.19 |
$-21.78 (-0.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
55m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | May 12, 2026 10:50am ET | $51.10 | 198 | $10,116.81 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 12, 2026 3:40pm ET | $51.58 | 198 | $10,213.83 | $10,251.21 |
+$97.02 (+1.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
4.8h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | May 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $51.37 | 199 | $10,222.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 14, 2026 12:45pm ET | $51.33 | 199 | $10,215.66 | $10,244.25 |
$-6.96 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
3.3h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | May 15, 2026 1:05pm ET | $51.22 | 199 | $10,193.77 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 15, 2026 1:15pm ET | $51.17 | 199 | $10,181.84 | $10,232.31 |
$-11.94 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
10m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | May 20, 2026 10:20am ET | $51.36 | 199 | $10,220.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 20, 2026 3:05pm ET | $51.58 | 199 | $10,265.41 | $10,277.08 |
+$44.77 (+0.4%) |
DEATH_CROSS
4.8h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | May 22, 2026 11:20am ET | $51.92 | 197 | $10,227.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 26, 2026 10:15am ET | $51.94 | 197 | $10,233.16 | $10,282.99 |
+$5.91 (+0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
4d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | May 27, 2026 2:45pm ET | $51.47 | 199 | $10,243.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 27, 2026 3:40pm ET | $51.40 | 199 | $10,229.59 | $10,269.06 |
$-13.93 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
55m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 1, 2026 11:40am ET | $51.44 | 199 | $10,237.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 1, 2026 3:10pm ET | $51.39 | 199 | $10,226.61 | $10,258.11 |
$-10.95 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
3.5h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 3, 2026 12:30pm ET | $50.81 | 201 | $10,212.81 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 3, 2026 3:15pm ET | $50.92 | 201 | $10,235.92 | $10,281.22 |
+$23.11 (+0.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.8h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 5, 2026 1:25pm ET | $52.24 | 196 | $10,238.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 5, 2026 3:00pm ET | $52.23 | 196 | $10,237.08 | $10,280.24 |
$-0.98 (-0.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.6h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 9, 2026 9:35am ET | $52.31 | 196 | $10,252.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 9, 2026 3:45pm ET | $52.31 | 196 | $10,251.78 | $10,279.26 |
$-0.98 (-0.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
6.2h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 11, 2026 12:15pm ET | $52.25 | 196 | $10,241.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 15, 2026 1:00pm ET | $53.84 | 196 | $10,552.64 | $10,590.90 |
+$311.64 (+3.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
4d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 23, 2026 1:40pm ET | $53.96 | 196 | $10,575.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 24, 2026 12:20pm ET | $53.81 | 196 | $10,547.74 | $10,563.46 |
$-27.44 (-0.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
22.7h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 26, 2026 10:30am ET | $53.60 | 197 | $10,559.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 26, 2026 10:55am ET | $53.49 | 197 | $10,537.53 | $10,541.79 |
$-21.67 (-0.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
25m held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 29, 2026 1:15pm ET | $53.81 | 195 | $10,492.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 29, 2026 3:15pm ET | $53.78 | 195 | $10,488.07 | $10,536.91 |
$-4.88 (-0.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $53.87 | 195 | $10,504.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 1, 2026 2:10pm ET | $54.83 | 195 | $10,692.82 | $10,725.09 |
+$188.18 (+1.8%) |
DEATH_CROSS
4.7h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 7, 2026 3:25pm ET | $56.17 | 190 | $10,672.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 9, 2026 2:00pm ET | $55.56 | 190 | $10,555.45 | $10,608.24 |
$-116.85 (-1.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.9d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 13, 2026 11:50am ET | $55.83 | 189 | $10,552.81 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $55.67 | 189 | $10,521.63 | $10,577.05 |
$-31.19 (-0.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
21.7h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 15, 2026 12:50pm ET | $56.69 | 186 | $10,544.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 15, 2026 1:10pm ET | $56.59 | 186 | $10,525.74 | $10,558.45 |
$-18.60 (-0.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
20m held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 16, 2026 3:20pm ET | $56.63 | 186 | $10,533.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 16, 2026 3:30pm ET | $56.51 | 186 | $10,509.93 | $10,535.20 |
$-23.25 (-0.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
10m held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 20, 2026 11:15am ET | $56.15 | 187 | $10,499.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 21, 2026 11:00am ET | $56.02 | 187 | $10,475.76 | $10,511.84 |
$-23.36 (-0.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
23.8h held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 22, 2026 3:55pm ET | $56.06 | 187 | $10,483.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 23, 2026 12:50pm ET | $55.65 | 187 | $10,405.62 | $10,434.23 |
$-77.61 (-0.7%) |
DEATH_CROSS
20.9h held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 24, 2026 3:10pm ET | $56.19 | 185 | $10,395.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 27, 2026 11:55am ET | $56.76 | 185 | $10,500.60 | $10,539.68 |
+$105.45 (+1.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.9d held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 28, 2026 3:40pm ET | $57.49 | 183 | $10,521.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $57.14 | 183 | $10,456.62 | $10,474.72 |
$-64.96 (-0.6%) |
DEATH_CROSS
17.8h held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 30, 2026 12:00pm ET | $56.56 | 185 | $10,462.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 31, 2026 9:35am ET | $56.74 | 185 | $10,497.82 | $10,509.87 |
+$35.15 (+0.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
21.6h held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 3, 2026 1:45pm ET | $57.17 | 183 | $10,461.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 4, 2026 3:55pm ET | $57.92 | 183 | $10,598.45 | $10,647.12 |
+$137.25 (+1.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.1d held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 6, 2026 12:35pm ET | $57.82 | 184 | $10,638.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 6, 2026 1:05pm ET | $57.76 | 184 | $10,626.92 | $10,635.16 |
$-11.96 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
30m held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 12, 2026 11:45am ET | $57.86 | 183 | $10,588.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 12, 2026 12:10pm ET | $57.76 | 183 | $10,570.08 | $10,616.86 |
$-18.30 (-0.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
25m held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 13, 2026 12:55pm ET | $57.92 | 183 | $10,598.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 14, 2026 10:35am ET | $58.12 | 183 | $10,635.96 | $10,654.37 |
+$37.51 (+0.4%) |
DEATH_CROSS
21.7h held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 18, 2026 11:40am ET | $57.85 | 184 | $10,643.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 19, 2026 9:30am ET | $57.89 | 184 | $10,651.76 | $10,662.65 |
+$8.28 (+0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
21.8h held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 21, 2026 2:25pm ET | $57.42 | 185 | $10,623.62 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 24, 2026 12:25pm ET | $58.10 | 185 | $10,749.42 | $10,788.45 |
+$125.80 (+1.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.9d held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 26, 2026 11:55am ET | $58.26 | 185 | $10,778.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 26, 2026 12:40pm ET | $58.19 | 185 | $10,766.07 | $10,776.43 |
$-12.02 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
45m held |
|
| 47 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $58.13 | 185 | $10,754.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 28, 2026 12:25pm ET | $58.13 | 185 | $10,753.13 | $10,775.50 |
$-0.93 (-0.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.9h held |
|
| 48 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 31, 2026 1:35pm ET | $57.76 | 186 | $10,744.29 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 31, 2026 2:50pm ET | $57.74 | 186 | $10,738.71 | $10,769.92 |
$-5.58 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.3h held |
|
| 49 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 2, 2026 9:35am ET | $57.40 | 187 | $10,732.87 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 2, 2026 12:00pm ET | $57.82 | 187 | $10,812.34 | $10,849.39 |
+$79.47 (+0.7%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.4h held |
|
| 50 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 4, 2026 11:55am ET | $58.12 | 186 | $10,810.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 4, 2026 3:05pm ET | $58.15 | 186 | $10,814.97 | $10,854.04 |
+$4.65 (+0.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
3.2h held |
|
| 51 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 9, 2026 10:55am ET | $57.28 | 189 | $10,824.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 9, 2026 2:15pm ET | $57.16 | 189 | $10,803.24 | $10,832.30 |
$-21.74 (-0.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
3.3h held |
|
| 52 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 10, 2026 3:35pm ET | $56.83 | 190 | $10,796.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 11, 2026 3:45pm ET | $57.23 | 190 | $10,873.70 | $10,909.25 |
+$76.95 (+0.7%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1d held |
|
| 53 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 15, 2026 1:35pm ET | $56.60 | 192 | $10,868.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 16, 2026 9:35am ET | $56.50 | 192 | $10,848.00 | $10,889.09 |
$-20.16 (-0.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
20h held |
|
| 54 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 17, 2026 11:30am ET | $55.85 | 194 | $10,834.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 18, 2026 11:45am ET | $55.76 | 194 | $10,818.41 | $10,872.60 |
$-16.49 (-0.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1d held |
|
| 55 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 22, 2026 12:50pm ET | $54.90 | 198 | $10,870.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 22, 2026 1:15pm ET | $54.85 | 198 | $10,861.29 | $10,863.69 |
$-8.91 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
25m held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$10,863.69
Net Profit/Loss:
+$863.69
Total Return:
+8.64%