XLK Grace Crossover's Analysis
Last 6 Months: 2026-03-24 to present • 51 trades in period
+24.43%
Last 6 Months Return
$14,581.91
Current Value
43%
Win Rate
$11,719.39
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
30.1 neutral
20d Trend
-8.0%
5d Trend
-6.2%
EMA20 Dist
-5.6%
ATR%
2.5%
Range Pos
2%
Bounce Ratio
0.7×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
37
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
12.2/35
Total Return
13.9/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
4.4/15
Consistency
6.4/10
Raw Quality
36.9/100
× Confidence 1.00
= 36.7
30-Day Momentum
43
+4.8%
30d Return
40%
Win Rate
10
Trades
2.5×
Profit Factor
Quality: 49.0
Conf: 0.87×
Steady (+6 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
9,984
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
128 days
Data Gaps
None (5 market holidays)
Market Closed (5 days)
2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)
Period Start Capital
$11,719.39
Current Value
$14,581.91
Period P&L
$2,862.55
Max Drawdown
-13.1%
Sharpe Ratio
0.28
Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)
Trades in Period
51
Winners / Losers
22 /
29
Best Trade
+4.59%
Worst Trade
-2.34%
Avg Trade Return
+0.43%
Avg Hold Time
1.2d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,393,927.81
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$2,862.55
Net P&L (after fees)
$2,862.55
Gross Return
+24.43%
Net Return (after fees)
+24.43%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 XLK Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 128 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 6 Months - 51 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Grace Crossover had $11,719.39 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $137.13 | 85 | $11,655.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 24, 2026 3:45pm ET | $136.16 | 85 | $11,574.02 | $11,690.88 |
$-81.60 (-0.7%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.3d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 27, 2026 11:35am ET | $131.74 | 88 | $11,593.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 12:10pm ET | $131.13 | 88 | $11,539.44 | $11,636.76 |
$-54.12 (-0.5%) |
DEATH_CROSS
35m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 31, 2026 9:30am ET | $129.18 | 90 | $11,626.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 2, 2026 12:25pm ET | $134.74 | 90 | $12,126.60 | $12,137.16 |
+$500.40 (+4.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.1d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2026 12:00pm ET | $135.53 | 89 | $12,062.17 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 2:40pm ET | $135.98 | 89 | $12,101.78 | $12,176.77 |
+$39.61 (+0.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.7h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $141.68 | 85 | $12,042.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 9, 2026 2:10pm ET | $141.26 | 85 | $12,006.68 | $12,140.65 |
$-36.12 (-0.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
4.7h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2026 2:40pm ET | $147.30 | 82 | $12,078.62 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 15, 2026 12:40pm ET | $148.76 | 82 | $12,197.91 | $12,259.94 |
+$119.29 (+1.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
22h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 16, 2026 3:00pm ET | $151.65 | 80 | $12,132.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 21, 2026 11:05am ET | $154.57 | 80 | $12,365.60 | $12,493.14 |
+$233.20 (+1.9%) |
DEATH_CROSS
4.8d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 23, 2026 11:05am ET | $157.41 | 79 | $12,435.39 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 23, 2026 11:55am ET | $156.96 | 79 | $12,399.45 | $12,457.19 |
$-35.95 (-0.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
50m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 28, 2026 1:15pm ET | $157.08 | 79 | $12,409.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2026 11:55am ET | $158.18 | 79 | $12,496.22 | $12,544.09 |
+$86.90 (+0.7%) |
DEATH_CROSS
22.7h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | May 1, 2026 3:15pm ET | $162.07 | 77 | $12,479.77 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 5, 2026 3:25pm ET | $165.70 | 77 | $12,758.66 | $12,822.98 |
+$278.89 (+2.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
4d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | May 7, 2026 3:45pm ET | $169.71 | 75 | $12,728.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 11, 2026 1:15pm ET | $177.50 | 75 | $13,312.50 | $13,407.23 |
+$584.25 (+4.6%) |
DEATH_CROSS
3.9d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | May 12, 2026 1:35pm ET | $173.11 | 77 | $13,329.47 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 13, 2026 3:55pm ET | $176.87 | 77 | $13,618.99 | $13,696.75 |
+$289.52 (+2.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.1d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | May 15, 2026 12:30pm ET | $177.38 | 77 | $13,657.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 20, 2026 2:55pm ET | $176.32 | 77 | $13,576.64 | $13,615.52 |
$-81.23 (-0.6%) |
DEATH_CROSS
5.1d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | May 21, 2026 3:15pm ET | $178.10 | 76 | $13,535.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 22, 2026 2:20pm ET | $181.15 | 76 | $13,767.40 | $13,847.32 |
+$231.80 (+1.7%) |
DEATH_CROSS
23.1h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | May 27, 2026 12:20pm ET | $183.89 | 75 | $13,791.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 28, 2026 9:50am ET | $183.82 | 75 | $13,786.13 | $13,841.70 |
$-5.62 (-0.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
21.5h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | May 29, 2026 2:35pm ET | $190.60 | 72 | $13,723.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 2, 2026 1:25pm ET | $196.97 | 72 | $14,181.84 | $14,300.34 |
+$458.64 (+3.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
4d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 4, 2026 11:30am ET | $192.51 | 74 | $14,245.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 4, 2026 3:55pm ET | $193.39 | 74 | $14,310.86 | $14,365.46 |
+$65.12 (+0.5%) |
DEATH_CROSS
4.4h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $185.03 | 77 | $14,247.31 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 9, 2026 10:15am ET | $183.71 | 77 | $14,145.67 | $14,263.82 |
$-101.64 (-0.7%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 10, 2026 2:00pm ET | $178.82 | 79 | $14,126.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 10, 2026 2:30pm ET | $177.89 | 79 | $14,053.31 | $14,190.35 |
$-73.47 (-0.5%) |
DEATH_CROSS
30m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 12, 2026 3:25pm ET | $185.15 | 76 | $14,071.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 15, 2026 3:05pm ET | $191.40 | 76 | $14,546.78 | $14,665.73 |
+$475.38 (+3.4%) |
DEATH_CROSS
3d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 17, 2026 1:25pm ET | $188.89 | 77 | $14,544.53 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 17, 2026 3:10pm ET | $188.10 | 77 | $14,483.70 | $14,604.90 |
$-60.83 (-0.4%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.8h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 18, 2026 3:20pm ET | $191.29 | 76 | $14,538.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 22, 2026 10:45am ET | $191.92 | 76 | $14,585.93 | $14,652.79 |
+$47.89 (+0.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
3.8d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 24, 2026 10:45am ET | $185.01 | 79 | $14,616.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 25, 2026 11:15am ET | $182.04 | 79 | $14,381.16 | $14,417.76 |
$-235.03 (-1.6%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 26, 2026 11:45am ET | $182.70 | 78 | $14,250.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 26, 2026 2:00pm ET | $182.06 | 78 | $14,200.68 | $14,367.84 |
$-49.92 (-0.4%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.3h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 1, 2026 3:20pm ET | $186.59 | 77 | $14,367.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 1, 2026 3:45pm ET | $186.06 | 77 | $14,326.62 | $14,327.03 |
$-40.81 (-0.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
25m held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 7, 2026 12:00pm ET | $179.14 | 79 | $14,152.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 8, 2026 10:15am ET | $178.74 | 79 | $14,120.85 | $14,295.82 |
$-31.21 (-0.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
22.3h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 10, 2026 11:30am ET | $185.19 | 77 | $14,259.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 10, 2026 11:40am ET | $184.67 | 77 | $14,219.59 | $14,255.78 |
$-40.04 (-0.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
10m held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $183.04 | 77 | $14,094.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 14, 2026 3:00pm ET | $184.03 | 77 | $14,170.31 | $14,332.01 |
+$76.23 (+0.5%) |
DEATH_CROSS
5.5h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 16, 2026 2:25pm ET | $177.83 | 80 | $14,226.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 16, 2026 2:55pm ET | $177.12 | 80 | $14,169.22 | $14,274.83 |
$-57.18 (-0.4%) |
DEATH_CROSS
30m held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $177.46 | 80 | $14,196.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 20, 2026 2:35pm ET | $176.96 | 80 | $14,156.80 | $14,234.83 |
$-40.00 (-0.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
5.1h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 21, 2026 3:40pm ET | $180.69 | 78 | $14,093.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 22, 2026 9:30am ET | $178.72 | 78 | $13,940.16 | $14,081.17 |
$-153.66 (-1.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
17.8h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 23, 2026 12:25pm ET | $179.13 | 78 | $13,972.53 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 23, 2026 1:05pm ET | $178.23 | 78 | $13,901.95 | $14,010.59 |
$-70.58 (-0.5%) |
DEATH_CROSS
40m held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 27, 2026 9:35am ET | $177.54 | 78 | $13,848.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 27, 2026 10:00am ET | $175.49 | 78 | $13,688.22 | $13,850.69 |
$-159.90 (-1.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
25m held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 28, 2026 11:20am ET | $170.84 | 81 | $13,838.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 28, 2026 1:55pm ET | $170.97 | 81 | $13,848.65 | $13,861.30 |
+$10.61 (+0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.6h held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 30, 2026 9:35am ET | $172.59 | 80 | $13,807.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 30, 2026 2:55pm ET | $175.05 | 80 | $14,004.00 | $14,058.26 |
+$196.96 (+1.4%) |
DEATH_CROSS
5.3h held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $182.20 | 77 | $14,029.41 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 5, 2026 3:35pm ET | $187.13 | 77 | $14,409.01 | $14,437.86 |
+$379.60 (+2.7%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.3d held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $187.76 | 76 | $14,269.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 7, 2026 1:00pm ET | $187.17 | 76 | $14,224.92 | $14,393.02 |
$-44.84 (-0.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
3.5h held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 10, 2026 3:00pm ET | $187.39 | 76 | $14,241.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 11, 2026 11:10am ET | $186.60 | 76 | $14,181.60 | $14,332.98 |
$-60.04 (-0.4%) |
DEATH_CROSS
20.2h held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 13, 2026 9:35am ET | $189.50 | 75 | $14,212.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 13, 2026 11:55am ET | $190.58 | 75 | $14,293.50 | $14,413.98 |
+$81.00 (+0.6%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.3h held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 14, 2026 2:05pm ET | $189.77 | 75 | $14,232.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 18, 2026 3:20pm ET | $185.32 | 75 | $13,899.00 | $14,080.23 |
$-333.75 (-2.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
4.1d held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 21, 2026 3:00pm ET | $183.39 | 76 | $13,937.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $181.16 | 76 | $13,768.16 | $13,910.75 |
$-169.48 (-1.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.8d held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 25, 2026 9:30am ET | $181.91 | 76 | $13,825.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 25, 2026 11:10am ET | $181.26 | 76 | $13,775.76 | $13,861.35 |
$-49.40 (-0.4%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.7h held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 26, 2026 1:10pm ET | $182.20 | 76 | $13,847.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 28, 2026 9:55am ET | $187.48 | 76 | $14,248.48 | $14,262.63 |
+$401.28 (+2.9%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.9d held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 31, 2026 12:35pm ET | $185.81 | 76 | $14,121.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 31, 2026 12:40pm ET | $185.62 | 76 | $14,107.12 | $14,248.19 |
$-14.44 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
5m held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 1, 2026 3:25pm ET | $183.67 | 77 | $14,142.59 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $183.10 | 77 | $14,098.70 | $14,204.30 |
$-43.89 (-0.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
18.1h held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $187.05 | 75 | $14,028.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 4, 2026 11:05am ET | $186.78 | 75 | $14,008.50 | $14,184.05 |
$-20.25 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.6h held |
|
| 47 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 8, 2026 1:05pm ET | $188.39 | 75 | $14,129.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 8, 2026 2:35pm ET | $188.20 | 75 | $14,115.00 | $14,169.80 |
$-14.25 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.5h held |
|
| 48 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 9, 2026 2:50pm ET | $188.07 | 75 | $14,104.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 10, 2026 11:50am ET | $185.99 | 75 | $13,949.62 | $14,014.55 |
$-155.25 (-1.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
21h held |
|
| 49 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 14, 2026 11:40am ET | $184.88 | 75 | $13,866.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 14, 2026 3:15pm ET | $185.13 | 75 | $13,884.75 | $14,033.30 |
+$18.75 (+0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
3.6h held |
|
| 50 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $184.95 | 75 | $13,870.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 16, 2026 12:55pm ET | $185.40 | 75 | $13,905.00 | $14,067.42 |
+$34.12 (+0.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
3.4h held |
|
| 51 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 18, 2026 11:25am ET | $188.12 | 74 | $13,920.69 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 22, 2026 11:55am ET | $195.07 | 74 | $14,435.18 | $14,581.91 |
+$514.49 (+3.7%) |
DEATH_CROSS
4d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$14,581.91
Net Profit/Loss:
+$4,581.91
Total Return:
+45.82%