AXP Grace Crossover's Analysis
Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 42 trades in period
-0.45%
Year to Date Return
$10,905.82
Current Value
36%
Win Rate
$10,955.52
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
44.7 neutral
20d Trend
-0.8%
5d Trend
+1.1%
EMA20 Dist
-0.8%
ATR%
2.1%
Range Pos
55%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.
Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026
16
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
1.8/35
Total Return
8.3/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.9/15
Consistency
5.5/10
Raw Quality
16.5/100
× Confidence 1.00
= 16.4
30-Day Momentum
9
-1.1%
30d Return
20%
Win Rate
10
Trades
0.5×
Profit Factor
Quality: 10.0
Conf: 0.87×
Cooling (-8 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Year to Date)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
7,289
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
90 days
Data Gaps
None (4 market holidays)
Market Closed (4 days)
2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Year to Date)
Period Start Capital
$10,955.52
Current Value
$10,905.82
Period P&L
$-49.72
Max Drawdown
-17.9%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.01
Trade Statistics (Year to Date)
Trades in Period
42
Winners / Losers
15 /
27
Best Trade
+1.17%
Worst Trade
-1.70%
Avg Trade Return
-0.01%
Avg Hold Time
11.2h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$913,702.17
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-49.72
Net P&L (after fees)
$-49.72
Gross Return
-0.45%
Net Return (after fees)
-0.45%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 AXP Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 90 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Year to Date - 42 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Grace Crossover had $10,955.52 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 2, 2026 11:00am ET | $370.41 | 29 | $10,741.89 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 2, 2026 11:50am ET | $369.59 | 29 | $10,718.11 | $10,931.76 |
$-23.78 (-0.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
48m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 6, 2026 11:00am ET | $381.20 | 28 | $10,673.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 6, 2026 2:40pm ET | $384.19 | 28 | $10,757.32 | $11,015.62 |
+$83.86 (+0.8%) |
DEATH_CROSS
3.7h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 7, 2026 2:55pm ET | $381.68 | 28 | $10,687.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 7, 2026 3:00pm ET | $381.54 | 28 | $10,683.12 | $11,011.70 |
$-3.92 (-0.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
6m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 8, 2026 3:10pm ET | $384.01 | 28 | $10,752.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 8, 2026 3:50pm ET | $382.96 | 28 | $10,722.88 | $10,982.30 |
$-29.40 (-0.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
42m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 12, 2026 1:00pm ET | $360.18 | 30 | $10,805.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 12, 2026 2:10pm ET | $359.86 | 30 | $10,795.72 | $10,972.61 |
$-9.68 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.2h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 14, 2026 12:40pm ET | $356.32 | 30 | $10,689.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 15, 2026 11:05am ET | $358.29 | 30 | $10,748.79 | $11,031.80 |
+$59.19 (+0.6%) |
DEATH_CROSS
22.4h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $355.93 | 30 | $10,677.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 21, 2026 2:15pm ET | $358.29 | 30 | $10,748.70 | $11,102.56 |
+$70.75 (+0.7%) |
DEATH_CROSS
4.8h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 23, 2026 2:05pm ET | $360.31 | 30 | $10,809.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 26, 2026 10:40am ET | $361.40 | 30 | $10,842.00 | $11,135.26 |
+$32.70 (+0.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.9d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 27, 2026 11:45am ET | $358.48 | 31 | $11,112.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 27, 2026 11:50am ET | $357.93 | 31 | $11,095.83 | $11,118.21 |
$-17.05 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
6m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $361.71 | 30 | $10,851.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 29, 2026 10:40am ET | $357.61 | 30 | $10,728.15 | $10,995.06 |
$-123.15 (-1.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.2h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 30, 2026 1:55pm ET | $347.33 | 31 | $10,767.23 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 2, 2026 11:30am ET | $350.82 | 31 | $10,875.42 | $11,103.25 |
+$108.19 (+1.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.9d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2026 3:30pm ET | $349.54 | 31 | $10,835.59 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 4, 2026 12:50pm ET | $353.61 | 31 | $10,962.06 | $11,229.73 |
+$126.48 (+1.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
21.3h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 2:10pm ET | $355.58 | 31 | $11,022.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 2:50pm ET | $354.49 | 31 | $10,989.34 | $11,196.10 |
$-33.63 (-0.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
42m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 3:30pm ET | $360.53 | 31 | $11,176.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 3:55pm ET | $359.14 | 31 | $11,133.34 | $11,153.01 |
$-43.09 (-0.4%) |
DEATH_CROSS
24m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 9:30am ET | $363.82 | 30 | $10,914.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 12:00pm ET | $365.39 | 30 | $10,961.70 | $11,200.11 |
+$47.10 (+0.4%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.5h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 11, 2026 2:45pm ET | $356.13 | 31 | $11,040.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 11, 2026 2:55pm ET | $355.02 | 31 | $11,005.47 | $11,165.55 |
$-34.56 (-0.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
10m held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $341.80 | 32 | $10,937.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 17, 2026 3:05pm ET | $345.26 | 32 | $11,048.44 | $11,276.39 |
+$110.84 (+1.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
5.6h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 20, 2026 9:55am ET | $341.32 | 33 | $11,263.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 20, 2026 11:20am ET | $341.73 | 33 | $11,277.09 | $11,289.92 |
+$13.53 (+0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.4h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 24, 2026 12:00pm ET | $319.43 | 35 | $11,180.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 24, 2026 3:05pm ET | $321.01 | 35 | $11,235.35 | $11,345.22 |
+$55.30 (+0.5%) |
DEATH_CROSS
3.1h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $330.12 | 34 | $11,224.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 26, 2026 11:45am ET | $332.98 | 34 | $11,321.49 | $11,442.63 |
+$97.41 (+0.9%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.3h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 27, 2026 1:30pm ET | $312.41 | 36 | $11,246.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 3, 2026 3:45pm ET | $307.10 | 36 | $11,055.42 | $11,251.29 |
$-191.34 (-1.7%) |
DEATH_CROSS
4.1d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 6, 2026 11:55am ET | $301.10 | 37 | $11,140.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 6, 2026 12:10pm ET | $300.08 | 37 | $11,102.96 | $11,213.55 |
$-37.74 (-0.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
15m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 10, 2026 12:40pm ET | $304.33 | 36 | $10,955.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 11, 2026 9:45am ET | $303.62 | 36 | $10,930.32 | $11,188.17 |
$-25.38 (-0.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
21.1h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $304.02 | 36 | $10,944.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 13, 2026 3:30pm ET | $301.06 | 36 | $10,838.16 | $11,081.43 |
$-106.74 (-1.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
6h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $303.86 | 36 | $10,938.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 17, 2026 11:25am ET | $301.64 | 36 | $10,859.22 | $11,001.69 |
$-79.74 (-0.7%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.9h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 18, 2026 2:10pm ET | $297.84 | 36 | $10,722.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 18, 2026 2:15pm ET | $296.40 | 36 | $10,670.40 | $10,949.85 |
$-51.84 (-0.5%) |
DEATH_CROSS
5m held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 20, 2026 12:10pm ET | $293.33 | 37 | $10,853.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 20, 2026 2:15pm ET | $294.26 | 37 | $10,887.62 | $10,984.44 |
+$34.59 (+0.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.1h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 24, 2026 11:05am ET | $302.01 | 36 | $10,872.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 24, 2026 12:40pm ET | $301.46 | 36 | $10,852.56 | $10,964.64 |
$-19.80 (-0.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.6h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 25, 2026 12:40pm ET | $300.92 | 36 | $10,832.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 25, 2026 3:05pm ET | $300.27 | 36 | $10,809.90 | $10,941.60 |
$-23.04 (-0.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.4h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 27, 2026 11:40am ET | $295.79 | 36 | $10,648.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 30, 2026 1:15pm ET | $299.19 | 36 | $10,770.75 | $11,064.00 |
+$122.40 (+1.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
3.1d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $304.71 | 36 | $10,969.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 1, 2026 1:35pm ET | $304.00 | 36 | $10,944.00 | $11,038.44 |
$-25.56 (-0.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
4.1h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 2, 2026 3:10pm ET | $300.28 | 36 | $10,810.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 2, 2026 3:30pm ET | $300.04 | 36 | $10,801.29 | $11,029.65 |
$-8.79 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
20m held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2026 9:55am ET | $305.12 | 36 | $10,984.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 10:10am ET | $303.49 | 36 | $10,925.82 | $10,971.15 |
$-58.50 (-0.5%) |
DEATH_CROSS
15m held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 8, 2026 12:40pm ET | $315.83 | 34 | $10,738.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2026 12:50pm ET | $315.43 | 34 | $10,724.69 | $10,957.62 |
$-13.53 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
10m held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 10, 2026 1:30pm ET | $314.35 | 34 | $10,687.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 10, 2026 3:25pm ET | $314.14 | 34 | $10,680.93 | $10,950.82 |
$-6.80 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.9h held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 16, 2026 12:05pm ET | $327.49 | 33 | $10,807.17 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 16, 2026 12:50pm ET | $326.92 | 33 | $10,788.36 | $10,932.01 |
$-18.81 (-0.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
45m held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 20, 2026 11:55am ET | $332.01 | 32 | $10,624.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 20, 2026 12:00pm ET | $331.66 | 32 | $10,613.12 | $10,920.97 |
$-11.04 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
5m held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 21, 2026 3:25pm ET | $331.12 | 32 | $10,595.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 22, 2026 11:40am ET | $331.96 | 32 | $10,622.88 | $10,948.01 |
+$27.04 (+0.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
20.3h held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 24, 2026 1:20pm ET | $314.35 | 34 | $10,687.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 24, 2026 3:20pm ET | $314.30 | 34 | $10,686.23 | $10,946.34 |
$-1.67 (-0.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2h held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 28, 2026 12:15pm ET | $318.15 | 34 | $10,817.27 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 28, 2026 2:15pm ET | $318.23 | 34 | $10,819.82 | $10,948.89 |
+$2.55 (+0.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2h held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 30, 2026 1:25pm ET | $321.30 | 34 | $10,924.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 1, 2026 9:40am ET | $321.16 | 34 | $10,919.44 | $10,944.30 |
$-4.59 (-0.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
20.3h held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | May 4, 2026 10:15am ET | $320.90 | 34 | $10,910.49 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 4, 2026 11:25am ET | $319.77 | 34 | $10,872.01 | $10,905.82 |
$-38.48 (-0.4%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.2h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$10,905.82
Net Profit/Loss:
+$905.82
Total Return:
+9.06%