Compendium › Luke Liquidation › DOGEUSD
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
DOGEUSD
Alpaca Tradeable

Luke Liquidation's Analysis

Last Month: 2026-08-25 to present • 3 trades in period

-0.86%
Last Month Return
$7,282.15
Current Value
67%
Win Rate
$6,892.37
Period Start
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PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:15:50

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
21.8 oversold
20d Trend
-37.1%
5d Trend
-36.5%
EMA20 Dist
-35.0%
ATR%
12.1%
Range Pos
1%
Bounce Ratio
0.3×
Green/Red 10d
3/7

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

3
Lifetime
Confidence: 84%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.1/10
Raw Quality 4.1/100
× Confidence 0.84 = 3.5

30-Day Momentum

9
+0.7%
30d Return
67%
Win Rate
3
Trades
0.9×
Profit Factor
Quality: 15.5 Conf: 0.61×
Steady (+6 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (84%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
8,980
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-08-25 → 2026-09-25
Trading Days
32 days
Data Gaps
None detected
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Crypto: 0.15% maker / 0.25% taker (volume-tiered) • 24/7/365 trading

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$6,892.37
Current Value
$7,282.15
Period P&L
$-59.50
Max Drawdown
-31.7%
Sharpe Ratio
0.11

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
3
Winners / Losers
2 / 1
Best Trade
+2.86%
Worst Trade
-3.03%
Avg Trade Return
+0.26%
Avg Hold Time
16.6h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
₿ Crypto
Fee Rate
0.25% per trade
Total Volume
$44,133.86
Estimated Fees
$110.33
Gross P&L
$-59.50
Net P&L (after fees)
$-169.83
Gross Return
-0.86%
Net Return (after fees)
-2.46%

⚠️ Crypto: Alpaca charges 0.25% taker fee (or 0.15% maker). This simulation uses the conservative 0.25% estimate on all trades.
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 DOGEUSD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 32 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 3 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Luke Liquidation had $6,892.37 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Aug 30, 2026 7:30pm ET $0.0821 88,119 $7,231.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 31, 2026 7:30pm ET $0.0828 88,119 $7,300.66 $7,300.66 +$33.01
(+1.0%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
1d held
2 🟢 BUY Sep 22, 2026 1:00am ET $0.1000 72,984 $7,300.66 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 23, 2026 1:00am ET $0.1029 72,984 $7,509.53 $7,509.53 +$171.85
(+2.9%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
1d held
3 🟢 BUY Sep 23, 2026 11:10am ET $0.0949 79,167 $7,509.53 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 23, 2026 1:00pm ET $0.0920 79,167 $7,282.15 $7,282.15 $-264.36
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.8h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $7,282.15
Net Profit/Loss: $-2,717.85
Total Return: -27.18%
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