Compendium › Luke Liquidation › PEPEUSD
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
PEPEUSD
Alpaca Tradeable

Luke Liquidation's Analysis

Last Month: 2026-08-25 to present • 3 trades in period

-5.69%
Last Month Return
$31,490.17
Current Value
33%
Win Rate
$30,019.61
Period Start
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PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:29:31

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
37.2 neutral
20d Trend
-19.0%
5d Trend
-17.2%
EMA20 Dist
+0.0%
ATR%
10.6%
Range Pos
4%
Bounce Ratio
0.4×
Green/Red 10d
4/6

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

43
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
15.4/35
Total Return
19.4/25
Win Rate
3.2/15
Profit Factor
1.2/15
Consistency
4.4/10
Raw Quality 43.5/100
× Confidence 1.00 = 43.3

30-Day Momentum

0
-3.7%
30d Return
33%
Win Rate
3
Trades
0.7×
Profit Factor
Quality: 0.0 Conf: 0.61×
Declining (-43 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
8,982
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-08-25 → 2026-09-25
Trading Days
32 days
Data Gaps
None detected
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Crypto: 0.15% maker / 0.25% taker (volume-tiered) • 24/7/365 trading

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$30,019.61
Current Value
$31,490.17
Period P&L
$-1,708.27
Max Drawdown
-49.0%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.42

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
3
Winners / Losers
1 / 2
Best Trade
+2.90%
Worst Trade
-3.33%
Avg Trade Return
-1.21%
Avg Hold Time
12.3h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
₿ Crypto
Fee Rate
0.25% per trade
Total Volume
$196,653.75
Estimated Fees
$491.63
Gross P&L
$-1,708.27
Net P&L (after fees)
$-2,199.90
Gross Return
-5.69%
Net Return (after fees)
-7.33%

⚠️ Crypto: Alpaca charges 0.25% taker fee (or 0.15% maker). This simulation uses the conservative 0.25% estimate on all trades.
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 PEPEUSD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 32 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 3 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Luke Liquidation had $30,019.61 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Aug 30, 2026 7:30pm ET $0.00000345 9,480,234,783 $32,706.81 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 31, 2026 7:30pm ET $0.00000355 9,480,234,783 $33,654.83 $33,654.83 +$782.12
(+2.9%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
1d held
2 🟢 BUY Sep 22, 2026 1:00am ET $0.00000498 6,757,997,992 $33,654.83 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 22, 2026 12:10pm ET $0.00000482 6,757,997,992 $32,573.55 $32,573.55 $-1,246.85
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
11.2h held
3 🟢 BUY Sep 23, 2026 11:10am ET $0.00000451 7,222,516,630 $32,573.55 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 23, 2026 1:00pm ET $0.00000436 7,222,516,630 $31,490.17 $31,490.17 $-1,243.54
(-3.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.8h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $31,490.17
Net Profit/Loss: +$21,490.17
Total Return: +214.90%
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