Compendium › Luke Liquidation › XRPUSD
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
XRPUSD
Alpaca Tradeable

Luke Liquidation's Analysis

Last Month: 2026-08-25 to present • 3 trades in period

+1.58%
Last Month Return
$19,558.27
Current Value
67%
Win Rate
$18,026.48
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:29:05

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
19.7 oversold
20d Trend
-37.8%
5d Trend
-40.3%
EMA20 Dist
-38.0%
ATR%
13.2%
Range Pos
3%
Bounce Ratio
0.3×
Green/Red 10d
4/6

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

44
Lifetime
Confidence: 84%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
12.9/35
Total Return
16.5/25
Win Rate
10.6/15
Profit Factor
4.3/15
Consistency
7.8/10
Raw Quality 52.1/100
× Confidence 0.84 = 44.0

30-Day Momentum

18
+3.0%
30d Return
67%
Win Rate
3
Trades
1.2×
Profit Factor
Quality: 28.6 Conf: 0.61×
Declining (-26 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (84%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
8,982
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-08-25 → 2026-09-25
Trading Days
32 days
Data Gaps
None detected
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Crypto: 0.15% maker / 0.25% taker (volume-tiered) • 24/7/365 trading

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$18,026.48
Current Value
$19,558.27
Period P&L
$285.40
Max Drawdown
-25.9%
Sharpe Ratio
0.32

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
3
Winners / Losers
2 / 1
Best Trade
+5.06%
Worst Trade
-3.03%
Avg Trade Return
+1.06%
Avg Hold Time
12.7h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
₿ Crypto
Fee Rate
0.25% per trade
Total Volume
$117,273.84
Estimated Fees
$293.18
Gross P&L
$285.40
Net P&L (after fees)
$-7.78
Gross Return
+1.58%
Net Return (after fees)
-0.04%

⚠️ Crypto: Alpaca charges 0.25% taker fee (or 0.15% maker). This simulation uses the conservative 0.25% estimate on all trades.
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 XRPUSD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 32 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 3 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Luke Liquidation had $18,026.48 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Aug 30, 2026 7:30pm ET $1.36 13,916 $18,979.68 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 31, 2026 7:30pm ET $1.38 13,916 $19,198.72 $19,198.72 +$123.59
(+1.2%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
1d held
2 🟢 BUY Sep 22, 2026 1:00am ET $1.51 12,700 $19,198.72 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 22, 2026 9:55am ET $1.59 12,700 $20,169.23 $20,169.23 +$872.09
(+5.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
8.9h held
3 🟢 BUY Sep 23, 2026 11:10am ET $1.53 13,184 $20,169.23 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 23, 2026 4:25pm ET $1.48 13,184 $19,558.27 $19,558.27 $-710.28
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
5.3h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $19,558.27
Net Profit/Loss: +$9,558.27
Total Return: +95.58%
Back to Luke Liquidation