Compendium › Luke Liquidation › XRPUSD
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
XRPUSD
Alpaca Tradeable

Luke Liquidation's Analysis

Last 3 Months: 2026-03-25 to present • 3 trades in period

-5.33%
Last 3 Months Return
$16,209.14
Current Value
0%
Win Rate
$16,576.03
Period Start
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PHASE 2: FEAR TRANSITION
⚡ Fear Bear (strategies thrive)
Signals generated 2026-06-25 03:35:52

Fear building. Reversal strategies are becoming viable. Watch for bounce signals.

Fear & Greed
12
Extreme Fear
VIX
19.5
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.50%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.30%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.71
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟠 1.5
Active
RSI(14)
19.7 oversold
20d Trend
-37.8%
5d Trend
-40.3%
EMA20 Dist
-38.0%
ATR%
13.2%
Range Pos
3%
Bounce Ratio
0.3×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Active magnetosphere: slight tilt toward volume/macro strategies.

Strategy Score Scored Jun 24, 2026

33
Lifetime
Confidence: 77%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
8.4/35
Total Return
15.0/25
Win Rate
8.9/15
Profit Factor
2.9/15
Consistency
7.3/10
Raw Quality 42.4/100
× Confidence 0.77 = 32.5

30-Day Momentum

0
-3.8%
30d Return
0%
Win Rate
3
Trades
0.6×
Profit Factor
Quality: 0.0 Conf: 0.61×
Declining (-33 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (77%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
26,588
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-25 → 2026-06-25
Trading Days
93 days
Data Gaps
None detected
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Crypto: 0.15% maker / 0.25% taker (volume-tiered) • 24/7/365 trading

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$16,576.03
Current Value
$16,209.14
Period P&L
$-883.39
Max Drawdown
-25.9%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.78

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
3
Winners / Losers
0 / 3
Best Trade
+0.05%
Worst Trade
-3.52%
Avg Trade Return
-1.25%
Avg Hold Time
23.4h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
₿ Crypto
Fee Rate
0.25% per trade
Total Volume
$100,352.80
Estimated Fees
$250.88
Gross P&L
$-883.39
Net P&L (after fees)
$-1,134.27
Gross Return
-5.33%
Net Return (after fees)
-6.84%

⚠️ Crypto: Alpaca charges 0.25% taker fee (or 0.15% maker). This simulation uses the conservative 0.25% estimate on all trades.
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 XRPUSD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 93 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 3 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Luke Liquidation had $16,576.03 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jun 2, 2026 11:30am ET $1.22 13,801 $16,841.64 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 3, 2026 11:30am ET $1.22 13,801 $16,850.06 $16,850.06 $-75.81
(+0.0%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
1d held
2 🟢 BUY Jun 3, 2026 9:55pm ET $1.16 14,529 $16,850.06 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 4, 2026 9:55pm ET $1.16 14,529 $16,800.95 $16,800.95 $-133.24
(-0.3%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
1d held
3 🟢 BUY Jun 5, 2026 2:20am ET $1.10 15,304 $16,800.95 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 6, 2026 12:30am ET $1.06 15,304 $16,209.14 $16,209.14 $-674.34
(-3.5%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
22.2h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $16,209.14
Net Profit/Loss: +$6,209.14
Total Return: +62.09%
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