Compendium › Luke Liquidation › DOGEUSD
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
DOGEUSD
Alpaca Tradeable

Luke Liquidation's Analysis

2024-01-01 00:00:00+00 to 2026-09-25 04:10:00+00 • 38 trades executed

-27.28%
2 Years Return
$7,282.15
Current Value
35%
Win Rate
$9,395.56
Period Start
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PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:15:50

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
21.8 oversold
20d Trend
-37.1%
5d Trend
-36.5%
EMA20 Dist
-35.0%
ATR%
12.1%
Range Pos
1%
Bounce Ratio
0.3×
Green/Red 10d
3/7

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

3
Lifetime
Confidence: 84%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.1/10
Raw Quality 4.1/100
× Confidence 0.84 = 3.5

30-Day Momentum

9
+0.7%
30d Return
67%
Win Rate
3
Trades
0.9×
Profit Factor
Quality: 15.5 Conf: 0.61×
Steady (+6 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (84%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
210,283
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-09-25 → 2026-09-25
Trading Days
731 days
Data Gaps
None detected
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Crypto: 0.15% maker / 0.25% taker (volume-tiered) • 24/7/365 trading

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary

Starting Capital
$9,395.56
Current Value
$7,282.15
Total P&L
$-2,562.69
Max Drawdown
-31.7%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.19

Trade Statistics

Total Trades
26
Winners / Losers
9 / 17
Best Trade
+6.71%
Worst Trade
-4.22%
Avg Trade Return
-0.66%
Avg Hold Time
10.2h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)

Asset Type
₿ Crypto
Fee Rate
0.25% per trade
Total Volume
$408,097.66
Estimated Fees
$1,020.24
Gross P&L
$-2,562.69
Net P&L (after fees)
$-3,582.93
Gross Return
-27.28%
Net Return (after fees)
-38.13%

⚠️ Crypto: Alpaca charges 0.25% taker fee (or 0.15% maker). This simulation uses the conservative 0.25% estimate on all trades.
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 DOGEUSD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 731 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Complete Trade History

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Luke Liquidation had $9,395.56 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Oct 1, 2024 1:15pm ET $0.1049 89,592 $9,395.56 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 2, 2024 1:15pm ET $0.1061 89,592 $9,502.18 $9,454.93 +$59.37
(+1.1%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
1d held
2 🟢 BUY Dec 9, 2024 4:00pm ET $0.3932 24,047 $9,454.93 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 9, 2024 4:15pm ET $0.4196 24,047 $10,089.04 $10,040.18 +$585.25
(+6.7%) 		🎯 +5% Target
18m held
3 🟢 BUY Dec 19, 2024 12:50pm ET $0.3199 31,389 $10,040.18 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 19, 2024 2:35pm ET $0.3082 31,389 $9,674.28 $9,624.99 $-415.19
(-3.6%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.8h held
4 🟢 BUY Feb 2, 2025 8:45pm ET $0.2377 40,496 $9,624.99 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 2, 2025 8:50pm ET $0.2277 40,496 $9,218.82 $9,171.71 $-453.28
(-4.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
6m held
5 🟢 BUY Feb 2, 2025 11:35pm ET $0.2255 40,680 $9,171.71 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 3, 2025 12:55am ET $0.2375 40,680 $9,662.72 $9,615.63 +$443.92
(+5.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1.3h held
6 🟢 BUY Mar 3, 2025 3:35pm ET $0.1961 49,032 $9,615.63 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 3, 2025 8:40pm ET $0.1897 49,032 $9,303.59 $9,256.29 $-359.34
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
5.1h held
7 🟢 BUY Mar 10, 2025 2:55pm ET $0.1519 60,953 $9,256.29 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 10, 2025 8:40pm ET $0.1472 60,953 $8,970.42 $8,924.85 $-331.44
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
5.8h held
8 🟢 BUY Aug 17, 2025 2:50pm ET $0.2331 38,281 $8,924.85 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 17, 2025 10:50pm ET $0.2247 38,281 $8,599.84 $8,556.03 $-368.82
(-3.6%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
8h held
9 🟢 BUY Aug 24, 2025 3:30pm ET $0.2373 36,051 $8,556.03 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 24, 2025 4:10pm ET $0.2298 36,051 $8,285.65 $8,243.54 $-312.49
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
42m held
10 🟢 BUY Aug 24, 2025 6:20pm ET $0.2288 36,026 $8,243.54 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 25, 2025 3:30am ET $0.2218 36,026 $7,992.08 $7,951.49 $-292.05
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
9.2h held
11 🟢 BUY Oct 10, 2025 5:10pm ET $0.2021 39,340 $7,951.49 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 10, 2025 5:15pm ET $0.1944 39,340 $7,648.57 $7,609.57 $-341.92
(-3.8%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
6m held
12 🟢 BUY Oct 10, 2025 5:15pm ET $0.1944 39,140 $7,609.57 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 10, 2025 5:20pm ET $0.1866 39,140 $7,301.93 $7,264.65 $-344.92
(-4.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
6m held
13 🟢 BUY Feb 9, 2026 12:35pm ET $0.0963 75,429 $7,264.65 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 10, 2026 1:45am ET $0.0931 75,429 $7,023.58 $6,987.86 $-276.79
(-3.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
13.2h held
14 🟢 BUY Feb 16, 2026 1:20pm ET $0.1008 69,329 $6,987.86 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 17, 2026 1:20pm ET $0.1012 69,329 $7,018.18 $7,018.18 $-4.70
(+0.4%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
1d held
15 🟢 BUY Feb 25, 2026 6:25pm ET $0.1017 69,017 $7,018.18 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 26, 2026 6:05am ET $0.0986 69,017 $6,804.28 $6,804.28 $-248.46
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
11.7h held
16 🟢 BUY Jun 2, 2026 11:30am ET $0.0944 72,113 $6,804.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 2, 2026 7:25pm ET $0.0914 72,113 $6,588.11 $6,588.11 $-249.65
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
7.9h held
17 🟢 BUY Jun 3, 2026 9:55pm ET $0.0883 74,578 $6,588.11 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 4, 2026 9:55pm ET $0.0878 74,578 $6,547.57 $6,547.57 $-73.38
(-0.6%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
1d held
18 🟢 BUY Jun 5, 2026 2:20am ET $0.0824 79,468 $6,547.57 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 5, 2026 2:50pm ET $0.0799 79,468 $6,349.58 $6,349.58 $-230.23
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
12.5h held
19 🟢 BUY Jun 25, 2026 9:55am ET $0.0716 88,712 $6,349.58 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 26, 2026 9:55am ET $0.0745 88,712 $6,610.84 $6,610.84 +$228.86
(+4.1%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
1d held
20 🟢 BUY Jul 10, 2026 11:20am ET $0.0739 89,465 $6,610.84 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 11, 2026 11:20am ET $0.0755 89,465 $6,755.01 $6,755.01 +$110.76
(+2.2%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
1d held
21 🟢 BUY Aug 21, 2026 2:55pm ET $0.0843 80,141 $6,755.01 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 21, 2026 5:30pm ET $0.0889 80,141 $7,122.92 $7,122.92 +$333.22
(+5.4%) 		🎯 +5% Target
2.6h held
22 🟢 BUY Aug 21, 2026 6:45pm ET $0.0937 76,043 $7,122.92 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 21, 2026 8:05pm ET $0.0905 76,043 $6,884.77 $6,884.77 $-273.17
(-3.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.3h held
23 🟢 BUY Aug 22, 2026 1:10am ET $0.0904 76,119 $6,884.77 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 22, 2026 4:10pm ET $0.0950 76,119 $7,231.32 $7,231.32 +$311.26
(+5.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
15h held
24 🟢 BUY Aug 30, 2026 7:30pm ET $0.0821 88,119 $7,231.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 31, 2026 7:30pm ET $0.0828 88,119 $7,300.66 $7,300.66 +$33.01
(+1.0%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
1d held
25 🟢 BUY Sep 22, 2026 1:00am ET $0.1000 72,984 $7,300.66 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 23, 2026 1:00am ET $0.1029 72,984 $7,509.53 $7,509.53 +$171.85
(+2.9%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
1d held
26 🟢 BUY Sep 23, 2026 11:10am ET $0.0949 79,167 $7,509.53 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 23, 2026 1:00pm ET $0.0920 79,167 $7,282.15 $7,282.15 $-264.36
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.8h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $7,282.15
Net Profit/Loss: $-2,717.85
Total Return: -27.18%
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