Compendium › Luke Liquidation › LTCUSD
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
LTCUSD
Alpaca Tradeable

Luke Liquidation's Analysis

2024-01-01 00:00:00+00 to 2026-09-25 04:00:00+00 • 16 trades executed

-6.01%
2 Years Return
$9,633.50
Current Value
67%
Win Rate
$10,249.09
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:04:47

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
22.8 oversold
20d Trend
-38.7%
5d Trend
-38.1%
EMA20 Dist
-35.1%
ATR%
12.4%
Range Pos
1%
Bounce Ratio
0.5×
Green/Red 10d
4/6

Strategy Score Scored May 5, 2026

7
Lifetime
Confidence: 47%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
8.4/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
6.7/10
Raw Quality 15.1/100
× Confidence 0.47 = 7.2

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (47%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
210,276
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-09-25 → 2026-09-25
Trading Days
731 days
Data Gaps
None detected
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Crypto: 0.15% maker / 0.25% taker (volume-tiered) • 24/7/365 trading

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary

Starting Capital
$10,249.09
Current Value
$9,633.50
Total P&L
$-615.59
Max Drawdown
-31.9%
Sharpe Ratio
0.05

Trade Statistics

Total Trades
9
Winners / Losers
6 / 3
Best Trade
+14.17%
Worst Trade
-28.77%
Avg Trade Return
+0.59%
Avg Hold Time
32m

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)

Asset Type
₿ Crypto
Fee Rate
0.25% per trade
Total Volume
$179,793.13
Estimated Fees
$449.48
Gross P&L
$-615.59
Net P&L (after fees)
$-1,065.07
Gross Return
-6.01%
Net Return (after fees)
-10.39%

⚠️ Crypto: Alpaca charges 0.25% taker fee (or 0.15% maker). This simulation uses the conservative 0.25% estimate on all trades.
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 LTCUSD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 731 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Complete Trade History

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Luke Liquidation had $10,249.09 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Dec 9, 2024 4:00pm ET $106.00 97 $10,249.09 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 9, 2024 4:10pm ET $112.31 97 $10,859.20 $10,806.43 +$557.34
(+6.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
12m held
2 🟢 BUY Dec 19, 2024 3:10pm ET $95.67 113 $10,806.43 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 19, 2024 4:35pm ET $100.72 113 $11,376.85 $11,321.40 +$514.97
(+5.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1.4h held
3 🟢 BUY Feb 2, 2025 8:45pm ET $97.68 116 $11,321.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 2, 2025 8:50pm ET $93.29 116 $10,812.59 $10,757.25 $-564.15
(-4.5%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
6m held
4 🟢 BUY Feb 2, 2025 8:50pm ET $93.29 115 $10,757.25 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 2, 2025 9:00pm ET $90.00 115 $10,377.88 $10,325.04 $-432.21
(-3.5%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
12m held
5 🟢 BUY Feb 2, 2025 9:05pm ET $87.32 118 $10,325.04 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 2, 2025 9:15pm ET $92.49 118 $10,936.36 $10,883.21 +$558.17
(+5.9%) 		🎯 +5% Target
12m held
6 🟢 BUY Oct 10, 2025 5:10pm ET $114.21 95 $10,883.21 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 10, 2025 5:15pm ET $81.35 95 $7,751.94 $7,705.35 $-3,177.86
(-28.8%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
6m held
7 🟢 BUY Oct 10, 2025 5:15pm ET $81.35 95 $7,705.35 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 10, 2025 5:20pm ET $92.88 95 $8,797.45 $8,756.20 +$1,050.85
(+14.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
6m held
8 🟢 BUY Oct 10, 2025 8:20pm ET $96.35 91 $8,756.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 10, 2025 10:35pm ET $101.46 91 $9,220.59 $9,175.65 +$419.45
(+5.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
2.3h held
9 🟢 BUY Feb 5, 2026 7:10pm ET $47.06 195 $9,175.65 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 5, 2026 7:35pm ET $49.65 195 $9,680.64 $9,633.50 +$457.85
(+5.5%) 		🎯 +5% Target
24m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $9,633.50
Net Profit/Loss: $-366.50
Total Return: -3.67%
Back to Luke Liquidation