Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 07:59:17

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 2.8
Storm
⛈️ 1 storm day in 7d
RSI(14)
21.8 oversold
20d Trend
-37.1%
5d Trend
-36.5%
EMA20 Dist
-35.0%
ATR%
12.1%
Range Pos
1%
Bounce Ratio
0.3×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored Sep 25, 2026

3
Lifetime
Confidence: 83%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.1/10
Raw Quality 4.1/100
× Confidence 0.83 = 3.4

30-Day Momentum

9
+0.7%
30d Return
67%
Win Rate
3
Trades
0.9×
Profit Factor
Quality: 15.5 Conf: 0.61×
Steady (+6 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (83%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Year to Date)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
77,031
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-09-25
Trading Days
268 days
Data Gaps
None detected
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Crypto: 0.15% maker / 0.25% taker (volume-tiered) • 24/7/365 trading

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Year to Date)

Period Start Capital
$7,264.65
Current Value
$7,282.15
Period P&L
$-431.78
Max Drawdown
-31.7%
Sharpe Ratio
0.03

Trade Statistics (Year to Date)

Trades in Period
14
Winners / Losers
6 / 8
Best Trade
+5.45%
Worst Trade
-3.34%
Avg Trade Return
+0.11%
Avg Hold Time
15h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)

Asset Type
₿ Crypto
Fee Rate
0.25% per trade
Total Volume
$194,003.78
Estimated Fees
$485.01
Gross P&L
$-431.78
Net P&L (after fees)
$-916.79
Gross Return
-5.94%
Net Return (after fees)
-12.62%

⚠️ Crypto: Alpaca charges 0.25% taker fee (or 0.15% maker). This simulation uses the conservative 0.25% estimate on all trades.
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 DOGEUSD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 268 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Year to Date - 14 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Luke Liquidation had $7,264.65 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Feb 9, 2026 12:35pm ET $0.0963 75,429 $7,264.65 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 10, 2026 1:45am ET $0.0931 75,429 $7,023.58 $6,987.86 $-276.79
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
13.2h held
2 🟢 BUY Feb 16, 2026 1:20pm ET $0.1008 69,329 $6,987.86 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 17, 2026 1:20pm ET $0.1012 69,329 $7,018.18 $7,018.18 $-4.70
(+0.4%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
1d held
3 🟢 BUY Feb 25, 2026 6:25pm ET $0.1017 69,017 $7,018.18 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 26, 2026 6:05am ET $0.0986 69,017 $6,804.28 $6,804.28 $-248.46
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
11.7h held
4 🟢 BUY Jun 2, 2026 11:30am ET $0.0944 72,113 $6,804.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 2, 2026 7:25pm ET $0.0914 72,113 $6,588.11 $6,588.11 $-249.65
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
7.9h held
5 🟢 BUY Jun 3, 2026 9:55pm ET $0.0883 74,578 $6,588.11 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 4, 2026 9:55pm ET $0.0878 74,578 $6,547.57 $6,547.57 $-73.38
(-0.6%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
1d held
6 🟢 BUY Jun 5, 2026 2:20am ET $0.0824 79,468 $6,547.57 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 5, 2026 2:50pm ET $0.0799 79,468 $6,349.58 $6,349.58 $-230.23
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
12.5h held
7 🟢 BUY Jun 25, 2026 9:55am ET $0.0716 88,712 $6,349.58 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 26, 2026 9:55am ET $0.0745 88,712 $6,610.84 $6,610.84 +$228.86
(+4.1%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
1d held
8 🟢 BUY Jul 10, 2026 11:20am ET $0.0739 89,465 $6,610.84 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 11, 2026 11:20am ET $0.0755 89,465 $6,755.01 $6,755.01 +$110.76
(+2.2%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
1d held
9 🟢 BUY Aug 21, 2026 2:55pm ET $0.0843 80,141 $6,755.01 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 21, 2026 5:30pm ET $0.0889 80,141 $7,122.92 $7,122.92 +$333.22
(+5.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.6h held
10 🟢 BUY Aug 21, 2026 6:45pm ET $0.0937 76,043 $7,122.92 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 21, 2026 8:05pm ET $0.0905 76,043 $6,884.77 $6,884.77 $-273.17
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.3h held
11 🟢 BUY Aug 22, 2026 1:10am ET $0.0904 76,119 $6,884.77 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 22, 2026 4:10pm ET $0.0950 76,119 $7,231.32 $7,231.32 +$311.26
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
15h held
12 🟢 BUY Aug 30, 2026 7:30pm ET $0.0821 88,119 $7,231.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 31, 2026 7:30pm ET $0.0828 88,119 $7,300.66 $7,300.66 +$33.01
(+1.0%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
1d held
13 🟢 BUY Sep 22, 2026 1:00am ET $0.1000 72,984 $7,300.66 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 23, 2026 1:00am ET $0.1029 72,984 $7,509.53 $7,509.53 +$171.85
(+2.9%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
1d held
14 🟢 BUY Sep 23, 2026 11:10am ET $0.0949 79,167 $7,509.53 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 23, 2026 1:00pm ET $0.0920 79,167 $7,282.15 $7,282.15 $-264.36
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $7,282.15
Net Profit/Loss: $-2,717.85
Total Return: -27.18%
Back to Luke Liquidation