Compendium › Luke Liquidation › LINKUSD
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
LINKUSD
Alpaca Tradeable

Luke Liquidation's Analysis

Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 16 trades in period

-14.40%
Year to Date Return
$10,048.18
Current Value
44%
Win Rate
$10,986.32
Period Start
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PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:16:04

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
23.6 oversold
20d Trend
-35.0%
5d Trend
-42.1%
EMA20 Dist
-37.0%
ATR%
14.9%
Range Pos
0%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
3/7

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

6
Lifetime
Confidence: 83%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
2.7/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
5.0/10
Raw Quality 7.7/100
× Confidence 0.83 = 6.4

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (83%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Year to Date)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
76,937
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-09-25
Trading Days
268 days
Data Gaps
None detected
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Crypto: 0.15% maker / 0.25% taker (volume-tiered) • 24/7/365 trading

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Year to Date)

Period Start Capital
$10,986.32
Current Value
$10,048.18
Period P&L
$-1,582.55
Max Drawdown
-13.1%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.13

Trade Statistics (Year to Date)

Trades in Period
16
Winners / Losers
7 / 9
Best Trade
+5.57%
Worst Trade
-3.57%
Avg Trade Return
-0.41%
Avg Hold Time
13.6h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)

Asset Type
₿ Crypto
Fee Rate
0.25% per trade
Total Volume
$325,005.11
Estimated Fees
$812.51
Gross P&L
$-1,582.55
Net P&L (after fees)
$-2,395.06
Gross Return
-14.40%
Net Return (after fees)
-21.80%

⚠️ Crypto: Alpaca charges 0.25% taker fee (or 0.15% maker). This simulation uses the conservative 0.25% estimate on all trades.
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 LINKUSD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 268 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Year to Date - 16 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Luke Liquidation had $10,986.32 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Feb 5, 2026 7:15pm ET $7.31 1,504 $10,986.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 5, 2026 7:30pm ET $7.71 1,504 $11,595.42 $11,538.96 +$552.64
(+5.5%) 		🎯 +5% Target
18m held
2 🟢 BUY Feb 8, 2026 10:30pm ET $8.85 1,303 $11,538.96 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 5:00am ET $8.59 1,303 $11,191.61 $11,134.78 $-404.18
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
6.5h held
3 🟢 BUY Feb 9, 2026 3:35pm ET $8.91 1,250 $11,134.78 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 10, 2026 12:45am ET $8.63 1,250 $10,788.69 $10,733.88 $-400.90
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
9.2h held
4 🟢 BUY Feb 25, 2026 6:25pm ET $9.32 1,151 $10,733.88 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 26, 2026 10:35am ET $9.04 1,151 $10,407.42 $10,407.42 $-379.31
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
16.2h held
5 🟢 BUY Mar 21, 2026 5:50pm ET $9.09 1,145 $10,407.42 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 21, 2026 8:00pm ET $8.80 1,145 $10,081.86 $10,081.86 $-376.78
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2.2h held
6 🟢 BUY Jun 2, 2026 11:30am ET $8.51 1,185 $10,081.86 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 2, 2026 11:35pm ET $8.23 1,185 $9,755.46 $9,755.46 $-375.99
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
12.1h held
7 🟢 BUY Jun 3, 2026 9:55pm ET $8.03 1,215 $9,755.46 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 4, 2026 9:55pm ET $7.95 1,215 $9,660.20 $9,660.20 $-143.80
(-1.0%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
1d held
8 🟢 BUY Jun 5, 2026 2:20am ET $7.38 1,309 $9,660.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 5, 2026 3:15pm ET $7.14 1,309 $9,339.01 $9,339.01 $-368.69
(-3.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
12.9h held
9 🟢 BUY Jun 25, 2026 9:55am ET $7.01 1,333 $9,339.01 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 26, 2026 9:55am ET $7.26 1,333 $9,668.69 $9,668.69 +$282.16
(+3.5%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
1d held
10 🟢 BUY Jul 10, 2026 11:35am ET $7.92 1,221 $9,668.69 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 11, 2026 11:35am ET $8.04 1,221 $9,819.96 $9,819.96 +$102.55
(+1.6%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
1d held
11 🟢 BUY Aug 21, 2026 2:55pm ET $11.59 848 $9,819.96 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 21, 2026 6:00pm ET $12.23 848 $10,366.44 $10,366.44 +$496.02
(+5.6%) 		🎯 +5% Target
3.1h held
12 🟢 BUY Aug 21, 2026 6:30pm ET $12.15 853 $10,366.44 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 22, 2026 1:10am ET $11.72 853 $9,996.64 $9,996.64 $-420.71
(-3.6%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
6.7h held
13 🟢 BUY Aug 22, 2026 1:10am ET $11.72 853 $9,996.64 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 22, 2026 6:20am ET $11.37 853 $9,695.27 $9,695.27 $-350.59
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
5.2h held
14 🟢 BUY Aug 30, 2026 7:30pm ET $11.20 866 $9,695.27 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 31, 2026 7:30pm ET $11.30 866 $9,781.14 $9,781.14 +$37.17
(+0.9%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
1d held
15 🟢 BUY Sep 22, 2026 1:00am ET $12.89 759 $9,781.14 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 23, 2026 1:00am ET $13.08 759 $9,921.55 $9,921.55 +$91.15
(+1.4%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
1d held
16 🟢 BUY Sep 23, 2026 11:10am ET $12.35 803 $9,921.55 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 24, 2026 11:10am ET $12.51 803 $10,048.18 $10,048.18 +$76.71
(+1.3%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
1d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $10,048.18
Net Profit/Loss: +$48.18
Total Return: +0.48%
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