Compendium › Luke Liquidation › PEPEUSD
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
PEPEUSD
Alpaca Tradeable

Luke Liquidation's Analysis

Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 24 trades in period

-20.28%
Year to Date Return
$31,490.17
Current Value
38%
Win Rate
$35,512.43
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:12:49

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
37.2 neutral
20d Trend
-19.0%
5d Trend
-17.2%
EMA20 Dist
+0.0%
ATR%
10.6%
Range Pos
4%
Bounce Ratio
0.4×
Green/Red 10d
4/6

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

43
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
15.4/35
Total Return
19.4/25
Win Rate
3.2/15
Profit Factor
1.2/15
Consistency
4.4/10
Raw Quality 43.5/100
× Confidence 1.00 = 43.3

30-Day Momentum

0
-3.7%
30d Return
33%
Win Rate
3
Trades
0.7×
Profit Factor
Quality: 0.0 Conf: 0.61×
Declining (-43 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Year to Date)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
76,946
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-09-25
Trading Days
268 days
Data Gaps
None detected
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Crypto: 0.15% maker / 0.25% taker (volume-tiered) • 24/7/365 trading

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Year to Date)

Period Start Capital
$35,512.43
Current Value
$31,490.17
Period P&L
$-7,201.09
Max Drawdown
-49.0%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.08

Trade Statistics (Year to Date)

Trades in Period
24
Winners / Losers
9 / 15
Best Trade
+7.00%
Worst Trade
-3.69%
Avg Trade Return
-0.34%
Avg Hold Time
6.9h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)

Asset Type
₿ Crypto
Fee Rate
0.25% per trade
Total Volume
$1,558,144.28
Estimated Fees
$3,895.36
Gross P&L
$-7,201.09
Net P&L (after fees)
$-11,096.45
Gross Return
-20.28%
Net Return (after fees)
-31.25%

⚠️ Crypto: Alpaca charges 0.25% taker fee (or 0.15% maker). This simulation uses the conservative 0.25% estimate on all trades.
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 PEPEUSD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 268 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Year to Date - 24 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Luke Liquidation had $35,512.43 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Feb 5, 2026 7:10pm ET $0.00000320 11,097,634,375 $35,512.43 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 5, 2026 7:15pm ET $0.00000309 11,097,634,375 $34,291.69 $34,117.18 $-1,395.25
(-3.4%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
6m held
2 🟢 BUY Feb 5, 2026 7:15pm ET $0.00000309 11,041,158,576 $34,117.18 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 5, 2026 7:20pm ET $0.00000325 11,041,158,576 $35,883.77 $35,708.76 +$1,591.58
(+5.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
6m held
3 🟢 BUY Feb 5, 2026 7:20pm ET $0.00000325 10,987,310,769 $35,708.76 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 5, 2026 7:35pm ET $0.00000342 10,987,310,769 $37,576.60 $37,393.39 +$1,684.63
(+5.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
18m held
4 🟢 BUY Feb 9, 2026 12:45pm ET $0.00000384 9,737,861,979 $37,393.39 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 10, 2026 1:40am ET $0.00000371 9,737,861,979 $36,127.47 $35,943.67 $-1,449.72
(-3.4%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
12.9h held
5 🟢 BUY Feb 16, 2026 12:35pm ET $0.00000446 8,059,118,834 $35,943.67 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 17, 2026 5:20am ET $0.00000430 8,059,118,834 $34,654.21 $34,654.21 $-1,465.95
(-3.6%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
16.8h held
6 🟢 BUY Feb 25, 2026 6:25pm ET $0.00000418 8,290,480,861 $34,654.21 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 25, 2026 9:10pm ET $0.00000404 8,290,480,861 $33,493.54 $33,493.54 $-1,331.04
(-3.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2.8h held
7 🟢 BUY Feb 25, 2026 10:00pm ET $0.00000412 8,129,500,650 $33,493.54 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 26, 2026 5:30am ET $0.00000398 8,129,500,650 $32,355.41 $32,355.41 $-1,302.75
(-3.4%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
7.5h held
8 🟢 BUY Mar 21, 2026 5:50pm ET $0.00000343 9,433,064,140 $32,355.41 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 21, 2026 8:00pm ET $0.00000331 9,433,064,140 $31,223.44 $31,223.44 $-1,290.91
(-3.5%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2.2h held
9 🟢 BUY Jun 2, 2026 11:30am ET $0.00000315 9,912,203,175 $31,223.44 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 2, 2026 11:45pm ET $0.00000305 9,912,203,175 $30,232.22 $30,232.22 $-1,144.86
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
12.3h held
10 🟢 BUY Jun 3, 2026 9:55pm ET $0.00000296 10,213,587,838 $30,232.22 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 3, 2026 10:00pm ET $0.00000286 10,213,587,838 $29,210.86 $29,210.86 $-1,169.97
(-3.4%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
5m held
11 🟢 BUY Jun 3, 2026 10:00pm ET $0.00000286 10,213,587,838 $29,210.86 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 3, 2026 11:00pm ET $0.00000303 10,213,587,838 $30,947.17 $30,947.17 +$1,585.91
(+5.9%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1h held
12 🟢 BUY Jun 4, 2026 12:00am ET $0.00000311 9,950,858,890 $30,947.17 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 4, 2026 3:15am ET $0.00000301 9,950,858,890 $29,952.09 $29,952.09 $-1,147.33
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
3.3h held
13 🟢 BUY Jun 5, 2026 2:20am ET $0.00000271 11,052,431,734 $29,952.09 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 5, 2026 3:15pm ET $0.00000261 11,052,431,734 $28,846.85 $28,846.85 $-1,252.24
(-3.7%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
12.9h held
14 🟢 BUY Jun 25, 2026 9:55am ET $0.00000231 12,487,813,853 $28,846.85 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 26, 2026 9:55am ET $0.00000237 12,487,813,853 $29,596.12 $29,596.12 +$603.16
(+2.6%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
1d held
15 🟢 BUY Jul 10, 2026 11:20am ET $0.00000274 10,801,503,650 $29,596.12 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 11, 2026 11:20am ET $0.00000282 10,801,503,650 $30,460.24 $30,460.24 +$713.98
(+2.9%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
1d held
16 🟢 BUY Aug 21, 2026 2:55pm ET $0.00000388 7,850,577,320 $30,460.24 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 21, 2026 3:15pm ET $0.00000375 7,850,577,320 $29,439.66 $29,439.66 $-1,170.32
(-3.4%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
20m held
17 🟢 BUY Aug 21, 2026 3:15pm ET $0.00000375 7,850,577,320 $29,439.66 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 21, 2026 5:55pm ET $0.00000396 7,850,577,320 $31,088.29 $31,088.29 +$1,497.30
(+5.6%) 		🎯 +5% Target
2.7h held
18 🟢 BUY Aug 21, 2026 6:05pm ET $0.00000398 7,811,127,182 $31,088.29 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 21, 2026 7:10pm ET $0.00000419 7,811,127,182 $32,728.62 $32,728.62 +$1,480.79
(+5.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1.1h held
19 🟢 BUY Aug 22, 2026 1:10am ET $0.00000400 8,182,155,000 $32,728.62 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 22, 2026 3:20am ET $0.00000428 8,182,155,000 $35,019.62 $35,019.62 +$2,121.63
(+7.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
2.2h held
20 🟢 BUY Aug 22, 2026 3:25am ET $0.00000425 8,239,911,388 $35,019.62 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 22, 2026 4:00am ET $0.00000411 8,239,911,388 $33,866.04 $33,866.04 $-1,325.80
(-3.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
35m held
21 🟢 BUY Aug 22, 2026 4:55am ET $0.00000409 8,280,204,353 $33,866.04 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 22, 2026 6:15am ET $0.00000395 8,280,204,353 $32,706.81 $32,706.81 $-1,325.66
(-3.4%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.3h held
22 🟢 BUY Aug 30, 2026 7:30pm ET $0.00000345 9,480,234,783 $32,706.81 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 31, 2026 7:30pm ET $0.00000355 9,480,234,783 $33,654.83 $33,654.83 +$782.12
(+2.9%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
1d held
23 🟢 BUY Sep 22, 2026 1:00am ET $0.00000498 6,757,997,992 $33,654.83 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 22, 2026 12:10pm ET $0.00000482 6,757,997,992 $32,573.55 $32,573.55 $-1,246.85
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
11.2h held
24 🟢 BUY Sep 23, 2026 11:10am ET $0.00000451 7,222,516,630 $32,573.55 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 23, 2026 1:00pm ET $0.00000436 7,222,516,630 $31,490.17 $31,490.17 $-1,243.54
(-3.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.8h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $31,490.17
Net Profit/Loss: +$21,490.17
Total Return: +214.90%
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