Compendium › Luke Liquidation › AVAXUSD
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
AVAXUSD
Alpaca Tradeable

Luke Liquidation's Analysis

2024-01-01 00:00:00+00 to 2026-09-25 04:15:00+00 • 25 trades executed

-11.66%
2 Years Return
$10,048.28
Current Value
44%
Win Rate
$11,374.41
Period Start
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PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:17:09

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
25.3 oversold
20d Trend
-38.3%
5d Trend
-38.9%
EMA20 Dist
-40.8%
ATR%
15.6%
Range Pos
3%
Bounce Ratio
1.0×
Green/Red 10d
6/4

Strategy Score Scored Mar 6, 2026

0
Lifetime
Confidence: 42%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
8.3/35
Total Return
45.6/25
Win Rate
51.3/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
38.4/10
Raw Quality 0.0/100
× Confidence 0.42 = 0.0

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (42%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
210,253
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-09-25 → 2026-09-25
Trading Days
731 days
Data Gaps
None detected
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Crypto: 0.15% maker / 0.25% taker (volume-tiered) • 24/7/365 trading

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary

Starting Capital
$11,374.41
Current Value
$10,048.28
Total P&L
$-1,326.13
Max Drawdown
-33.1%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.04

Trade Statistics

Total Trades
9
Winners / Losers
4 / 5
Best Trade
+17.42%
Worst Trade
-20.60%
Avg Trade Return
-0.38%
Avg Hold Time
4.2h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)

Asset Type
₿ Crypto
Fee Rate
0.25% per trade
Total Volume
$205,165.29
Estimated Fees
$512.91
Gross P&L
$-1,326.13
Net P&L (after fees)
$-1,839.04
Gross Return
-11.66%
Net Return (after fees)
-16.17%

⚠️ Crypto: Alpaca charges 0.25% taker fee (or 0.15% maker). This simulation uses the conservative 0.25% estimate on all trades.
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 AVAXUSD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 731 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Complete Trade History

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Luke Liquidation had $11,374.41 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Oct 1, 2024 1:15pm ET $25.49 446 $11,374.41 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 2, 2024 1:15pm ET $26.01 446 $11,606.45 $11,549.00 +$174.59
(+2.0%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
1d held
2 🟢 BUY Dec 9, 2024 4:00pm ET $41.10 281 $11,549.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 9, 2024 4:05pm ET $43.89 281 $12,332.98 $12,273.28 +$724.28
(+6.8%) 		🎯 +5% Target
6m held
3 🟢 BUY Dec 9, 2024 4:05pm ET $43.89 280 $12,273.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 9, 2024 4:30pm ET $46.16 280 $12,908.06 $12,845.10 +$571.82
(+5.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
24m held
4 🟢 BUY Dec 20, 2024 5:10am ET $34.95 368 $12,845.10 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 20, 2024 6:40am ET $33.79 368 $12,418.77 $12,355.61 $-489.49
(-3.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.5h held
5 🟢 BUY Feb 2, 2025 8:45pm ET $25.17 491 $12,355.61 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 2, 2025 8:50pm ET $24.13 491 $11,845.09 $11,784.59 $-571.02
(-4.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
6m held
6 🟢 BUY Mar 3, 2025 2:55pm ET $20.92 563 $11,784.59 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 3, 2025 8:35pm ET $20.20 563 $11,379.00 $11,321.09 $-463.50
(-3.4%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
5.7h held
7 🟢 BUY Mar 10, 2025 2:55pm ET $16.24 697 $11,321.09 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 10, 2025 8:35pm ET $15.70 697 $10,944.65 $10,888.99 $-432.10
(-3.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
5.7h held
8 🟢 BUY Oct 10, 2025 5:10pm ET $23.06 472 $10,888.99 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 10, 2025 5:15pm ET $18.31 472 $8,646.03 $8,597.19 $-2,291.80
(-20.6%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
6m held
9 🟢 BUY Oct 10, 2025 5:15pm ET $18.31 470 $8,597.19 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 10, 2025 5:20pm ET $21.50 470 $10,095.01 $10,048.28 +$1,451.09
(+17.4%) 		🎯 +5% Target
6m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $10,048.28
Net Profit/Loss: +$48.28
Total Return: +0.48%
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