Compendium › Luke Liquidation › DOTUSD
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
DOTUSD
Alpaca Tradeable

Luke Liquidation's Analysis

2024-01-01 00:00:00+00 to 2026-09-25 07:45:00+00 • 24 trades executed

+9.46%
2 Years Return
$11,510.79
Current Value
67%
Win Rate
$10,462.70
Period Start
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PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 03:50:44

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
19.6 oversold
20d Trend
-46.1%
5d Trend
-40.6%
EMA20 Dist
-40.2%
ATR%
14.7%
Range Pos
0%
Bounce Ratio
0.4×
Green/Red 10d
3/7

Strategy Score Scored Jun 21, 2026

15
Lifetime
Confidence: 51%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
4.4/35
Total Return
10.0/25
Win Rate
6.9/15
Profit Factor
1.1/15
Consistency
6.9/10
Raw Quality 29.3/100
× Confidence 0.51 = 14.8

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (51%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
210,316
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-09-25 → 2026-09-25
Trading Days
731 days
Data Gaps
None detected
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Crypto: 0.15% maker / 0.25% taker (volume-tiered) • 24/7/365 trading

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary

Starting Capital
$10,462.70
Current Value
$11,510.79
Total P&L
$989.62
Max Drawdown
-12.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.24

Trade Statistics

Total Trades
12
Winners / Losers
8 / 4
Best Trade
+8.54%
Worst Trade
-10.54%
Avg Trade Return
+1.44%
Avg Hold Time
4.7h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)

Asset Type
₿ Crypto
Fee Rate
0.25% per trade
Total Volume
$257,018.11
Estimated Fees
$642.55
Gross P&L
$989.62
Net P&L (after fees)
$347.07
Gross Return
+9.46%
Net Return (after fees)
+3.32%

⚠️ Crypto: Alpaca charges 0.25% taker fee (or 0.15% maker). This simulation uses the conservative 0.25% estimate on all trades.
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 DOTUSD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 731 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Complete Trade History

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Luke Liquidation had $10,462.70 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Dec 4, 2024 11:50am ET $10.47 999 $10,462.70 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 4, 2024 2:15pm ET $11.02 999 $11,008.22 $10,954.54 +$491.84
(+5.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
2.4h held
2 🟢 BUY Dec 9, 2024 3:45pm ET $8.58 1,276 $10,954.54 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 9, 2024 4:00pm ET $7.68 1,276 $9,799.48 $9,747.60 $-1,206.94
(-10.5%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
18m held
3 🟢 BUY Dec 9, 2024 4:00pm ET $7.68 1,270 $9,747.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 9, 2024 4:05pm ET $8.33 1,270 $10,580.42 $10,529.60 +$782.00
(+8.5%) 		🎯 +5% Target
6m held
4 🟢 BUY Dec 9, 2024 4:05pm ET $8.33 1,263 $10,529.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 9, 2024 4:35pm ET $8.76 1,263 $11,061.51 $11,007.54 +$477.94
(+5.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
30m held
5 🟢 BUY Feb 2, 2025 8:45pm ET $4.55 2,418 $11,007.54 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 2, 2025 8:50pm ET $4.29 2,418 $10,369.28 $10,315.84 $-691.70
(-5.8%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
6m held
6 🟢 BUY Sep 22, 2025 5:45am ET $3.95 2,608 $10,315.84 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 23, 2025 5:45am ET $4.01 2,608 $10,449.13 $10,397.22 +$81.38
(+1.3%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
1d held
7 🟢 BUY Oct 10, 2025 5:10pm ET $3.44 3,022 $10,397.22 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 10, 2025 5:15pm ET $3.25 3,022 $9,832.02 $9,781.45 $-615.77
(-5.4%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
6m held
8 🟢 BUY Oct 10, 2025 5:15pm ET $3.25 3,007 $9,781.45 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 10, 2025 5:20pm ET $3.48 3,007 $10,458.00 $10,407.40 +$625.95
(+6.9%) 		🎯 +5% Target
6m held
9 🟢 BUY Oct 10, 2025 8:20pm ET $2.93 3,553 $10,407.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 10, 2025 10:25pm ET $3.11 3,553 $11,035.97 $10,982.36 +$574.96
(+6.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
2.1h held
10 🟢 BUY Jan 18, 2026 7:00pm ET $1.98 5,559 $10,982.36 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 19, 2026 7:00pm ET $2.03 5,559 $11,286.42 $11,230.75 +$248.39
(+2.8%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
1d held
11 🟢 BUY Feb 5, 2026 7:10pm ET $1.15 9,766 $11,230.75 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 5, 2026 7:35pm ET $1.22 9,766 $11,933.89 $11,875.98 +$645.23
(+6.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
24m held
12 🟢 BUY Mar 21, 2026 6:00pm ET $1.50 7,939 $11,875.98 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 21, 2026 8:05pm ET $1.45 7,939 $11,510.79 $11,510.79 $-423.66
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2.1h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $11,510.79
Net Profit/Loss: +$1,510.79
Total Return: +15.11%
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