Compendium › Luke Liquidation › ETHUSD
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
ETHUSD
Alpaca Tradeable

Luke Liquidation's Analysis

2024-01-01 00:00:00+00 to 2026-09-25 04:20:00+00 • 8 trades executed

+5.87%
2 Years Return
$11,118.76
Current Value
60%
Win Rate
$10,501.99
Period Start
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PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:23:55

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
22.2 oversold
20d Trend
-34.3%
5d Trend
-40.1%
EMA20 Dist
-35.3%
ATR%
13.6%
Range Pos
0%
Bounce Ratio
0.5×
Green/Red 10d
5/5

Strategy Score Scored Mar 6, 2026

0
Lifetime
Confidence: 17%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
40.8/35
Total Return
45.6/25
Win Rate
70.4/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
69.6/10
Raw Quality 0.0/100
× Confidence 0.17 = 0.0

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (17%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
210,288
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-09-25 → 2026-09-25
Trading Days
731 days
Data Gaps
None detected
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Crypto: 0.15% maker / 0.25% taker (volume-tiered) • 24/7/365 trading

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary

Starting Capital
$10,501.99
Current Value
$11,118.76
Total P&L
$616.77
Max Drawdown
-13.6%
Sharpe Ratio
0.35

Trade Statistics

Total Trades
5
Winners / Losers
3 / 2
Best Trade
+7.56%
Worst Trade
-5.45%
Avg Trade Return
+1.78%
Avg Hold Time
2.9h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)

Asset Type
₿ Crypto
Fee Rate
0.25% per trade
Total Volume
$101,778.66
Estimated Fees
$254.45
Gross P&L
$616.77
Net P&L (after fees)
$362.32
Gross Return
+5.87%
Net Return (after fees)
+3.45%

⚠️ Crypto: Alpaca charges 0.25% taker fee (or 0.15% maker). This simulation uses the conservative 0.25% estimate on all trades.
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 ETHUSD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 731 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Complete Trade History

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Luke Liquidation had $10,501.99 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Feb 2, 2025 8:50pm ET $2,569.30 4 $10,501.99 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 2, 2025 8:55pm ET $2,486.53 4 $10,163.67 $10,112.00 $-389.99
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
6m held
2 🟢 BUY Feb 2, 2025 8:55pm ET $2,486.53 4 $10,112.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 2, 2025 9:05pm ET $2,350.90 4 $9,560.43 $9,511.25 $-600.75
(-5.5%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
12m held
3 🟢 BUY Feb 2, 2025 9:05pm ET $2,350.90 4 $9,511.25 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 2, 2025 9:10pm ET $2,469.20 4 $9,989.87 $9,941.11 +$429.86
(+5.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
6m held
4 🟢 BUY Mar 10, 2025 2:55pm ET $1,824.03 5 $9,941.11 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 11, 2025 5:00am ET $1,915.26 5 $10,438.32 $10,387.37 +$446.26
(+5.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
14.1h held
5 🟢 BUY Oct 10, 2025 5:15pm ET $3,500.00 3 $10,387.37 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 10, 2025 5:30pm ET $3,764.60 3 $11,172.66 $11,118.76 +$731.39
(+7.6%) 		🎯 +5% Target
18m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $11,118.76
Net Profit/Loss: +$1,118.76
Total Return: +11.19%
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