PEPEUSD Luke Liquidation's Analysis
2024-01-01 00:00:00+00 to 2026-05-06 12:50:00+00 • 118 trades executed
-24.98%
2 Years Return
$31,223.44
Current Value
40%
Win Rate
$40,727.15
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
37.2 neutral
20d Trend
-19.0%
5d Trend
-17.2%
EMA20 Dist
+0.0%
ATR%
10.6%
Range Pos
4%
Bounce Ratio
0.4×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.
Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026
38
Lifetime
Confidence: 86%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
15.2/35
Total Return
19.3/25
Win Rate
3.4/15
Profit Factor
1.5/15
Consistency
4.2/10
Raw Quality
43.6/100
× Confidence 0.86
= 37.5
30-Day Momentum
Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (86%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
208,438
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-05-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
725 days
Data Gaps
1 day with gaps
Data Gap Notice
The following dates had fewer candles than expected. This could be due to API rate limits during data collection or exchange maintenance. Simulation results may be slightly affected.
2024-10-08 (60 candles)
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Crypto: 0.15% maker / 0.25% taker (volume-tiered) • 24/7/365 trading
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary
Starting Capital
$40,727.15
Current Value
$31,223.44
Total P&L
$-10,174.13
Max Drawdown
-49.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.03
Trade Statistics
Total Trades
50
Winners / Losers
20 /
30
Best Trade
+43.99%
Worst Trade
-28.93%
Avg Trade Return
+0.29%
Avg Hold Time
4.1h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)
Asset Type
₿ Crypto
Fee Rate
0.25% per trade
Total Volume
$3,828,132.58
Estimated Fees
$9,570.33
Gross P&L
$-10,174.13
Net P&L (after fees)
$-19,744.46
Gross Return
-24.98%
Net Return (after fees)
-48.48%
⚠️ Crypto: Alpaca charges 0.25% taker fee (or 0.15% maker).
This simulation uses the conservative 0.25% estimate on all trades.
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 PEPEUSD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 725 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Complete Trade History
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Luke Liquidation had $40,727.15 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | May 6, 2024 2:20am ET | $0.00000866 | 4,702,904,157 | $40,727.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 6, 2024 4:45am ET | $0.00000918 | 4,702,904,157 | $43,172.66 | $42,962.91 |
+$2,235.76 (+6.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.4h held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | May 13, 2024 2:20pm ET | $0.00001001 | 4,291,999,001 | $42,962.91 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 13, 2024 6:25pm ET | $0.00000968 | 4,291,999,001 | $41,546.55 | $41,335.28 |
$-1,627.63 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.1h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | May 15, 2024 12:10pm ET | $0.00001031 | 4,009,241,513 | $41,335.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 16, 2024 10:25am ET | $0.00000990 | 4,009,241,513 | $39,691.49 | $39,488.92 |
$-1,846.36 (-4.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.3h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | May 23, 2024 9:20pm ET | $0.00001473 | 2,680,849,966 | $39,488.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 24, 2024 2:15am ET | $0.00001418 | 2,680,849,966 | $38,014.45 | $37,820.69 |
$-1,668.23 (-3.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.9h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 7, 2024 2:00pm ET | $0.00001186 | 3,188,928,331 | $37,820.69 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 7, 2024 2:10pm ET | $0.00001124 | 3,188,928,331 | $35,843.55 | $35,659.39 |
$-2,161.30 (-5.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
12m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 7, 2024 2:10pm ET | $0.00001124 | 3,172,543,594 | $35,659.39 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 7, 2024 2:15pm ET | $0.00001214 | 3,172,543,594 | $38,514.68 | $38,329.24 |
+$2,669.85 (+8.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 7, 2024 2:15pm ET | $0.00001214 | 3,157,268,534 | $38,329.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 7, 2024 3:20pm ET | $0.00001275 | 3,157,268,534 | $40,255.17 | $40,058.71 |
+$1,729.47 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.1h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 17, 2024 9:40pm ET | $0.00000980 | 4,087,623,469 | $40,058.71 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 17, 2024 10:20pm ET | $0.00001032 | 4,087,623,469 | $42,184.27 | $41,978.67 |
+$1,919.96 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
42m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 20, 2024 12:00pm ET | $0.00001089 | 3,854,790,634 | $41,978.67 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 21, 2024 10:20am ET | $0.00001145 | 3,854,790,634 | $44,137.35 | $43,922.06 |
+$1,943.39 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.3h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 4, 2024 8:00pm ET | $0.00000856 | 5,131,081,776 | $43,922.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 4, 2024 8:40pm ET | $0.00000827 | 5,131,081,776 | $42,434.05 | $42,218.16 |
$-1,703.90 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
42m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 4, 2024 10:10pm ET | $0.00000835 | 5,056,067,066 | $42,218.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 4, 2024 10:55pm ET | $0.00000793 | 5,056,067,066 | $40,094.61 | $39,888.83 |
$-2,329.33 (-5.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
48m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 4, 2024 10:55pm ET | $0.00000793 | 5,030,117,276 | $39,888.83 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 5, 2024 12:40am ET | $0.00000840 | 5,030,117,276 | $42,252.99 | $42,047.63 |
+$2,158.80 (+5.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.8h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 4, 2024 1:40pm ET | $0.00000769 | 5,467,832,250 | $42,047.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 4, 2024 2:05pm ET | $0.00000816 | 5,467,832,250 | $44,617.51 | $44,400.85 |
+$2,353.22 (+6.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
24m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 4, 2024 9:05pm ET | $0.00000722 | 6,149,702,216 | $44,400.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 4, 2024 10:35pm ET | $0.00000699 | 6,149,702,216 | $42,986.42 | $42,767.95 |
$-1,632.90 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.5h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 5, 2024 2:20am ET | $0.00000629 | 6,799,356,121 | $42,767.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 5, 2024 3:05am ET | $0.00000662 | 6,799,356,121 | $45,011.74 | $44,792.29 |
+$2,024.34 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
48m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 17, 2024 10:45am ET | $0.00001004 | 4,461,383,466 | $44,792.29 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 17, 2024 2:30pm ET | $0.00000966 | 4,461,383,466 | $43,096.96 | $42,877.24 |
$-1,915.05 (-3.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.8h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 7, 2024 9:20pm ET | $0.00001097 | 3,908,590,702 | $42,877.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 8, 2024 11:30am ET | $0.00001050 | 3,908,590,702 | $41,040.20 | $40,830.41 |
$-2,046.83 (-4.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
14.2h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 12, 2024 8:00am ET | $0.00001257 | 3,248,242,641 | $40,830.41 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 12, 2024 1:15pm ET | $0.00001320 | 3,248,242,641 | $42,876.80 | $42,667.53 |
+$1,837.12 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5.3h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 12, 2024 11:00pm ET | $0.00001317 | 3,239,751,708 | $42,667.53 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 12, 2024 11:45pm ET | $0.00001261 | 3,239,751,708 | $40,853.27 | $40,644.47 |
$-2,023.06 (-4.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
48m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 12, 2024 11:50pm ET | $0.00001272 | 3,195,319,969 | $40,644.47 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 13, 2024 6:15am ET | $0.00001340 | 3,195,319,969 | $42,817.29 | $42,608.63 |
+$1,964.16 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6.4h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 9, 2024 4:00pm ET | $0.00002328 | 1,830,267,612 | $42,608.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 9, 2024 4:05pm ET | $0.00002495 | 1,830,267,612 | $45,665.18 | $45,444.49 |
+$2,835.86 (+7.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 19, 2024 1:20pm ET | $0.00001690 | 2,689,023,077 | $45,444.49 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 19, 2024 9:30pm ET | $0.00001778 | 2,689,023,077 | $47,810.83 | $47,577.69 |
+$2,133.20 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
8.2h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 20, 2024 5:10am ET | $0.00001524 | 3,121,895,669 | $47,577.69 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 20, 2024 6:35am ET | $0.00001476 | 3,121,895,669 | $46,079.18 | $45,845.04 |
$-1,732.65 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.4h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 19, 2025 6:25am ET | $0.00001602 | 2,861,737,828 | $45,845.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 19, 2025 6:50am ET | $0.00001544 | 2,861,737,828 | $44,185.23 | $43,960.16 |
$-1,884.88 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
24m held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 26, 2025 5:00pm ET | $0.00001461 | 3,008,908,966 | $43,960.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 26, 2025 6:15pm ET | $0.00001415 | 3,008,908,966 | $42,576.06 | $42,359.72 |
$-1,600.44 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.3h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 26, 2025 6:15pm ET | $0.00001415 | 2,993,619,788 | $42,359.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 26, 2025 7:15pm ET | $0.00001370 | 2,993,619,788 | $41,012.59 | $40,804.16 |
$-1,555.56 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 2, 2025 7:45pm ET | $0.00000983 | 4,150,982,706 | $40,804.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 2, 2025 8:45pm ET | $0.00000939 | 4,150,982,706 | $38,977.73 | $38,778.27 |
$-2,025.89 (-4.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 2, 2025 8:45pm ET | $0.00000939 | 4,129,741,214 | $38,778.27 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 2, 2025 8:50pm ET | $0.00000898 | 4,129,741,214 | $37,085.08 | $36,895.42 |
$-1,882.85 (-4.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6m held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 2, 2025 8:50pm ET | $0.00000898 | 4,108,621,381 | $36,895.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 2, 2025 9:05pm ET | $0.00000850 | 4,108,621,381 | $34,923.28 | $34,743.73 |
$-2,151.69 (-5.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18m held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 4, 2025 3:00am ET | $0.00000969 | 3,585,524,252 | $34,743.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 4, 2025 6:00am ET | $0.00001022 | 3,585,524,252 | $36,644.06 | $36,465.59 |
+$1,721.86 (+5.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 7, 2025 4:30pm ET | $0.00000873 | 4,177,043,528 | $36,465.59 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 7, 2025 5:20pm ET | $0.00000846 | 4,177,043,528 | $35,337.79 | $35,158.28 |
$-1,307.31 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
48m held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 24, 2025 7:10pm ET | $0.00000768 | 4,577,901,042 | $35,158.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 25, 2025 2:30am ET | $0.00000736 | 4,577,901,042 | $33,693.35 | $33,521.22 |
$-1,637.06 (-4.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
7.3h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 3, 2025 4:55pm ET | $0.00000709 | 4,727,957,687 | $33,521.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 3, 2025 8:35pm ET | $0.00000685 | 4,727,957,687 | $32,386.51 | $32,221.74 |
$-1,299.48 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.7h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 4, 2025 11:30am ET | $0.00000639 | 5,042,525,822 | $32,221.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 4, 2025 12:15pm ET | $0.00000679 | 5,042,525,822 | $34,238.75 | $34,072.60 |
+$1,850.86 (+6.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
48m held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 10, 2025 2:50pm ET | $0.00000571 | 5,967,180,385 | $34,072.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 10, 2025 8:30pm ET | $0.00000549 | 5,967,180,385 | $32,759.82 | $32,592.74 |
$-1,479.86 (-3.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.7h held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 2, 2025 6:10pm ET | $0.00000716 | 4,552,058,659 | $32,592.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 2, 2025 6:55pm ET | $0.00000694 | 4,552,058,659 | $31,591.29 | $31,430.83 |
$-1,161.91 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
48m held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 2, 2025 8:10pm ET | $0.00000702 | 4,477,326,211 | $31,430.83 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 3, 2025 8:20am ET | $0.00000678 | 4,477,326,211 | $30,356.27 | $30,201.80 |
$-1,229.03 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
12.2h held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | May 15, 2025 10:15am ET | $0.00001311 | 2,303,722,349 | $30,201.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 15, 2025 12:40pm ET | $0.00001387 | 2,303,722,349 | $31,952.63 | $31,797.24 |
+$1,595.44 (+5.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.4h held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | May 18, 2025 4:00pm ET | $0.00001267 | 2,509,647,987 | $31,797.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 18, 2025 6:55pm ET | $0.00001340 | 2,509,647,987 | $33,629.28 | $33,465.72 |
+$1,668.48 (+5.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.9h held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | May 30, 2025 9:00pm ET | $0.00001119 | 2,990,680,965 | $33,465.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 31, 2025 11:25am ET | $0.00001178 | 2,990,680,965 | $35,230.22 | $35,058.48 |
+$1,592.76 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
14.4h held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 10, 2025 5:10pm ET | $0.00000726 | 4,828,991,736 | $35,058.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 10, 2025 5:15pm ET | $0.00000516 | 4,828,991,736 | $24,917.60 | $24,767.66 |
$-10,290.82 (-28.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6m held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 10, 2025 5:15pm ET | $0.00000516 | 4,799,934,109 | $24,767.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 10, 2025 5:20pm ET | $0.00000743 | 4,799,934,109 | $35,663.51 | $35,512.43 |
+$10,744.77 (+44.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6m held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 7:10pm ET | $0.00000320 | 11,097,634,375 | $35,512.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 7:15pm ET | $0.00000309 | 11,097,634,375 | $34,291.69 | $34,117.18 |
$-1,395.25 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6m held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 7:15pm ET | $0.00000309 | 11,041,158,576 | $34,117.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 7:20pm ET | $0.00000325 | 11,041,158,576 | $35,883.77 | $35,708.76 |
+$1,591.58 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6m held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 7:20pm ET | $0.00000325 | 10,987,310,769 | $35,708.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 7:35pm ET | $0.00000342 | 10,987,310,769 | $37,576.60 | $37,393.39 |
+$1,684.63 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
18m held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 12:45pm ET | $0.00000384 | 9,737,861,979 | $37,393.39 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 1:40am ET | $0.00000371 | 9,737,861,979 | $36,127.47 | $35,943.67 |
$-1,449.72 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
12.9h held |
|
| 47 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 16, 2026 12:35pm ET | $0.00000446 | 8,059,118,834 | $35,943.67 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 17, 2026 5:20am ET | $0.00000430 | 8,059,118,834 | $34,654.21 | $34,654.21 |
$-1,465.95 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
16.8h held |
|
| 48 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 25, 2026 6:25pm ET | $0.00000418 | 8,290,480,861 | $34,654.21 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 25, 2026 9:10pm ET | $0.00000404 | 8,290,480,861 | $33,493.54 | $33,493.54 |
$-1,331.04 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8h held |
|
| 49 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 25, 2026 10:00pm ET | $0.00000412 | 8,129,500,650 | $33,493.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 26, 2026 5:30am ET | $0.00000398 | 8,129,500,650 | $32,355.41 | $32,355.41 |
$-1,302.75 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
7.5h held |
|
| 50 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 21, 2026 5:50pm ET | $0.00000343 | 9,433,064,140 | $32,355.41 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 21, 2026 8:00pm ET | $0.00000331 | 9,433,064,140 | $31,223.44 | $31,223.44 |
$-1,290.91 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.2h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$31,223.44
Net Profit/Loss:
+$21,223.44
Total Return:
+212.23%