Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 19:40:05

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
4.96%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.26%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
37.2 neutral
20d Trend
-19.0%
5d Trend
-17.2%
EMA20 Dist
+0.0%
ATR%
10.6%
Range Pos
4%
Bounce Ratio
0.4×
Green/Red 10d
4/6

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

43
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
15.4/35
Total Return
19.4/25
Win Rate
3.2/15
Profit Factor
1.2/15
Consistency
4.4/10
Raw Quality 43.5/100
× Confidence 1.00 = 43.3

30-Day Momentum

0
-3.7%
30d Return
33%
Win Rate
3
Trades
0.7×
Profit Factor
Quality: 0.0 Conf: 0.61×
Declining (-43 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
208,567
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-09-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
725 days
Data Gaps
1 day with gaps

Data Gap Notice

The following dates had fewer candles than expected. This could be due to API rate limits during data collection or exchange maintenance. Simulation results may be slightly affected.

2024-10-08 (60 candles)
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Crypto: 0.15% maker / 0.25% taker (volume-tiered) • 24/7/365 trading

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary

Starting Capital
$44,792.29
Current Value
$31,490.17
Total P&L
$-16,480.95
Max Drawdown
-49.0%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.01

Trade Statistics

Total Trades
51
Winners / Losers
19 / 32
Best Trade
+43.99%
Worst Trade
-28.93%
Avg Trade Return
-0.05%
Avg Hold Time
5.2h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)

Asset Type
₿ Crypto
Fee Rate
0.25% per trade
Total Volume
$3,597,128.19
Estimated Fees
$8,992.82
Gross P&L
$-16,480.95
Net P&L (after fees)
$-25,473.77
Gross Return
-36.79%
Net Return (after fees)
-56.87%

⚠️ Crypto: Alpaca charges 0.25% taker fee (or 0.15% maker). This simulation uses the conservative 0.25% estimate on all trades.
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 PEPEUSD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 725 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Complete Trade History

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Luke Liquidation had $44,792.29 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Oct 17, 2024 10:45am ET $0.00001004 4,461,383,466 $44,792.29 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 17, 2024 2:30pm ET $0.00000966 4,461,383,466 $43,096.96 $42,877.24 $-1,915.05
(-3.8%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.8h held
2 🟢 BUY Nov 7, 2024 9:20pm ET $0.00001097 3,908,590,702 $42,877.24 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 8, 2024 11:30am ET $0.00001050 3,908,590,702 $41,040.20 $40,830.41 $-2,046.83
(-4.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
14.2h held
3 🟢 BUY Nov 12, 2024 8:00am ET $0.00001257 3,248,242,641 $40,830.41 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 12, 2024 1:15pm ET $0.00001320 3,248,242,641 $42,876.80 $42,667.53 +$1,837.12
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
5.3h held
4 🟢 BUY Nov 12, 2024 11:00pm ET $0.00001317 3,239,751,708 $42,667.53 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 12, 2024 11:45pm ET $0.00001261 3,239,751,708 $40,853.27 $40,644.47 $-2,023.06
(-4.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
48m held
5 🟢 BUY Nov 12, 2024 11:50pm ET $0.00001272 3,195,319,969 $40,644.47 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 13, 2024 6:15am ET $0.00001340 3,195,319,969 $42,817.29 $42,608.63 +$1,964.16
(+5.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
6.4h held
6 🟢 BUY Dec 9, 2024 4:00pm ET $0.00002328 1,830,267,612 $42,608.63 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 9, 2024 4:05pm ET $0.00002495 1,830,267,612 $45,665.18 $45,444.49 +$2,835.86
(+7.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
6m held
7 🟢 BUY Dec 19, 2024 1:20pm ET $0.00001690 2,689,023,077 $45,444.49 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 19, 2024 9:30pm ET $0.00001778 2,689,023,077 $47,810.83 $47,577.69 +$2,133.20
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
8.2h held
8 🟢 BUY Dec 20, 2024 5:10am ET $0.00001524 3,121,895,669 $47,577.69 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 20, 2024 6:35am ET $0.00001476 3,121,895,669 $46,079.18 $45,845.04 $-1,732.65
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.4h held
9 🟢 BUY Jan 19, 2025 6:25am ET $0.00001602 2,861,737,828 $45,845.04 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 19, 2025 6:50am ET $0.00001544 2,861,737,828 $44,185.23 $43,960.16 $-1,884.88
(-3.6%)
🛑 -10% Stop
24m held
10 🟢 BUY Jan 26, 2025 5:00pm ET $0.00001461 3,008,908,966 $43,960.16 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 26, 2025 6:15pm ET $0.00001415 3,008,908,966 $42,576.06 $42,359.72 $-1,600.44
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.3h held
11 🟢 BUY Jan 26, 2025 6:15pm ET $0.00001415 2,993,619,788 $42,359.72 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 26, 2025 7:15pm ET $0.00001370 2,993,619,788 $41,012.59 $40,804.16 $-1,555.56
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1h held
12 🟢 BUY Feb 2, 2025 7:45pm ET $0.00000983 4,150,982,706 $40,804.16 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 2, 2025 8:45pm ET $0.00000939 4,150,982,706 $38,977.73 $38,778.27 $-2,025.89
(-4.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1h held
13 🟢 BUY Feb 2, 2025 8:45pm ET $0.00000939 4,129,741,214 $38,778.27 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 2, 2025 8:50pm ET $0.00000898 4,129,741,214 $37,085.08 $36,895.42 $-1,882.85
(-4.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6m held
14 🟢 BUY Feb 2, 2025 8:50pm ET $0.00000898 4,108,621,381 $36,895.42 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 2, 2025 9:05pm ET $0.00000850 4,108,621,381 $34,923.28 $34,743.73 $-2,151.69
(-5.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
18m held
15 🟢 BUY Feb 4, 2025 3:00am ET $0.00000969 3,585,524,252 $34,743.73 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 4, 2025 6:00am ET $0.00001022 3,585,524,252 $36,644.06 $36,465.59 +$1,721.86
(+5.5%)
🎯 +5% Target
3h held
16 🟢 BUY Feb 7, 2025 4:30pm ET $0.00000873 4,177,043,528 $36,465.59 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 7, 2025 5:20pm ET $0.00000846 4,177,043,528 $35,337.79 $35,158.28 $-1,307.31
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
48m held
17 🟢 BUY Feb 24, 2025 7:10pm ET $0.00000768 4,577,901,042 $35,158.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 25, 2025 2:30am ET $0.00000736 4,577,901,042 $33,693.35 $33,521.22 $-1,637.06
(-4.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
7.3h held
18 🟢 BUY Mar 3, 2025 4:55pm ET $0.00000709 4,727,957,687 $33,521.22 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 3, 2025 8:35pm ET $0.00000685 4,727,957,687 $32,386.51 $32,221.74 $-1,299.48
(-3.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.7h held
19 🟢 BUY Mar 4, 2025 11:30am ET $0.00000639 5,042,525,822 $32,221.74 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 4, 2025 12:15pm ET $0.00000679 5,042,525,822 $34,238.75 $34,072.60 +$1,850.86
(+6.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
48m held
20 🟢 BUY Mar 10, 2025 2:50pm ET $0.00000571 5,967,180,385 $34,072.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 10, 2025 8:30pm ET $0.00000549 5,967,180,385 $32,759.82 $32,592.74 $-1,479.86
(-3.9%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5.7h held
21 🟢 BUY Apr 2, 2025 6:10pm ET $0.00000716 4,552,058,659 $32,592.74 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 2, 2025 6:55pm ET $0.00000694 4,552,058,659 $31,591.29 $31,430.83 $-1,161.91
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
48m held
22 🟢 BUY Apr 2, 2025 8:10pm ET $0.00000702 4,477,326,211 $31,430.83 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 3, 2025 8:20am ET $0.00000678 4,477,326,211 $30,356.27 $30,201.80 $-1,229.03
(-3.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
12.2h held
23 🟢 BUY May 15, 2025 10:15am ET $0.00001311 2,303,722,349 $30,201.80 — — —
🔴 SELL May 15, 2025 12:40pm ET $0.00001387 2,303,722,349 $31,952.63 $31,797.24 +$1,595.44
(+5.8%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.4h held
24 🟢 BUY May 18, 2025 4:00pm ET $0.00001267 2,509,647,987 $31,797.24 — — —
🔴 SELL May 18, 2025 6:55pm ET $0.00001340 2,509,647,987 $33,629.28 $33,465.72 +$1,668.48
(+5.8%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.9h held
25 🟢 BUY May 30, 2025 9:00pm ET $0.00001119 2,990,680,965 $33,465.72 — — —
🔴 SELL May 31, 2025 11:25am ET $0.00001178 2,990,680,965 $35,230.22 $35,058.48 +$1,592.76
(+5.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
14.4h held
26 🟢 BUY Oct 10, 2025 5:10pm ET $0.00000726 4,828,991,736 $35,058.48 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 10, 2025 5:15pm ET $0.00000516 4,828,991,736 $24,917.60 $24,767.66 $-10,290.82
(-28.9%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6m held
27 🟢 BUY Oct 10, 2025 5:15pm ET $0.00000516 4,799,934,109 $24,767.66 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 10, 2025 5:20pm ET $0.00000743 4,799,934,109 $35,663.51 $35,512.43 +$10,744.77
(+44.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
6m held
28 🟢 BUY Feb 5, 2026 7:10pm ET $0.00000320 11,097,634,375 $35,512.43 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 5, 2026 7:15pm ET $0.00000309 11,097,634,375 $34,291.69 $34,117.18 $-1,395.25
(-3.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6m held
29 🟢 BUY Feb 5, 2026 7:15pm ET $0.00000309 11,041,158,576 $34,117.18 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 5, 2026 7:20pm ET $0.00000325 11,041,158,576 $35,883.77 $35,708.76 +$1,591.58
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
6m held
30 🟢 BUY Feb 5, 2026 7:20pm ET $0.00000325 10,987,310,769 $35,708.76 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 5, 2026 7:35pm ET $0.00000342 10,987,310,769 $37,576.60 $37,393.39 +$1,684.63
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
18m held
31 🟢 BUY Feb 9, 2026 12:45pm ET $0.00000384 9,737,861,979 $37,393.39 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 10, 2026 1:40am ET $0.00000371 9,737,861,979 $36,127.47 $35,943.67 $-1,449.72
(-3.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
12.9h held
32 🟢 BUY Feb 16, 2026 12:35pm ET $0.00000446 8,059,118,834 $35,943.67 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 17, 2026 5:20am ET $0.00000430 8,059,118,834 $34,654.21 $34,654.21 $-1,465.95
(-3.6%)
🛑 -10% Stop
16.8h held
33 🟢 BUY Feb 25, 2026 6:25pm ET $0.00000418 8,290,480,861 $34,654.21 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 25, 2026 9:10pm ET $0.00000404 8,290,480,861 $33,493.54 $33,493.54 $-1,331.04
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8h held
34 🟢 BUY Feb 25, 2026 10:00pm ET $0.00000412 8,129,500,650 $33,493.54 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 26, 2026 5:30am ET $0.00000398 8,129,500,650 $32,355.41 $32,355.41 $-1,302.75
(-3.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
7.5h held
35 🟢 BUY Mar 21, 2026 5:50pm ET $0.00000343 9,433,064,140 $32,355.41 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 21, 2026 8:00pm ET $0.00000331 9,433,064,140 $31,223.44 $31,223.44 $-1,290.91
(-3.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.2h held
36 🟢 BUY Jun 2, 2026 11:30am ET $0.00000315 9,912,203,175 $31,223.44 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 2, 2026 11:45pm ET $0.00000305 9,912,203,175 $30,232.22 $30,232.22 $-1,144.86
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
12.3h held
37 🟢 BUY Jun 3, 2026 9:55pm ET $0.00000296 10,213,587,838 $30,232.22 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 3, 2026 10:00pm ET $0.00000286 10,213,587,838 $29,210.86 $29,210.86 $-1,169.97
(-3.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held
38 🟢 BUY Jun 3, 2026 10:00pm ET $0.00000286 10,213,587,838 $29,210.86 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 3, 2026 11:00pm ET $0.00000303 10,213,587,838 $30,947.17 $30,947.17 +$1,585.91
(+5.9%)
🎯 +5% Target
1h held
39 🟢 BUY Jun 4, 2026 12:00am ET $0.00000311 9,950,858,890 $30,947.17 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 4, 2026 3:15am ET $0.00000301 9,950,858,890 $29,952.09 $29,952.09 $-1,147.33
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.3h held
40 🟢 BUY Jun 5, 2026 2:20am ET $0.00000271 11,052,431,734 $29,952.09 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 5, 2026 3:15pm ET $0.00000261 11,052,431,734 $28,846.85 $28,846.85 $-1,252.24
(-3.7%)
🛑 -10% Stop
12.9h held
41 🟢 BUY Jun 25, 2026 9:55am ET $0.00000231 12,487,813,853 $28,846.85 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 26, 2026 9:55am ET $0.00000237 12,487,813,853 $29,596.12 $29,596.12 +$603.16
(+2.6%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
1d held
42 🟢 BUY Jul 10, 2026 11:20am ET $0.00000274 10,801,503,650 $29,596.12 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 11, 2026 11:20am ET $0.00000282 10,801,503,650 $30,460.24 $30,460.24 +$713.98
(+2.9%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
1d held
43 🟢 BUY Aug 21, 2026 2:55pm ET $0.00000388 7,850,577,320 $30,460.24 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 21, 2026 3:15pm ET $0.00000375 7,850,577,320 $29,439.66 $29,439.66 $-1,170.32
(-3.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
20m held
44 🟢 BUY Aug 21, 2026 3:15pm ET $0.00000375 7,850,577,320 $29,439.66 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 21, 2026 5:55pm ET $0.00000396 7,850,577,320 $31,088.29 $31,088.29 +$1,497.30
(+5.6%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.7h held
45 🟢 BUY Aug 21, 2026 6:05pm ET $0.00000398 7,811,127,182 $31,088.29 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 21, 2026 7:10pm ET $0.00000419 7,811,127,182 $32,728.62 $32,728.62 +$1,480.79
(+5.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.1h held
46 🟢 BUY Aug 22, 2026 1:10am ET $0.00000400 8,182,155,000 $32,728.62 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 22, 2026 3:20am ET $0.00000428 8,182,155,000 $35,019.62 $35,019.62 +$2,121.63
(+7.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.2h held
47 🟢 BUY Aug 22, 2026 3:25am ET $0.00000425 8,239,911,388 $35,019.62 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 22, 2026 4:00am ET $0.00000411 8,239,911,388 $33,866.04 $33,866.04 $-1,325.80
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
35m held
48 🟢 BUY Aug 22, 2026 4:55am ET $0.00000409 8,280,204,353 $33,866.04 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 22, 2026 6:15am ET $0.00000395 8,280,204,353 $32,706.81 $32,706.81 $-1,325.66
(-3.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.3h held
49 🟢 BUY Aug 30, 2026 7:30pm ET $0.00000345 9,480,234,783 $32,706.81 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 31, 2026 7:30pm ET $0.00000355 9,480,234,783 $33,654.83 $33,654.83 +$782.12
(+2.9%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
1d held
50 🟢 BUY Sep 22, 2026 1:00am ET $0.00000498 6,757,997,992 $33,654.83 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 22, 2026 12:10pm ET $0.00000482 6,757,997,992 $32,573.55 $32,573.55 $-1,246.85
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
11.2h held
51 🟢 BUY Sep 23, 2026 11:10am ET $0.00000451 7,222,516,630 $32,573.55 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 23, 2026 1:00pm ET $0.00000436 7,222,516,630 $31,490.17 $31,490.17 $-1,243.54
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $31,490.17
Net Profit/Loss: +$21,490.17
Total Return: +214.90%
Back to Luke Liquidation