Compendium › Luke Liquidation › XRPUSD
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
XRPUSD
Alpaca Tradeable

Luke Liquidation's Analysis

2024-01-01 00:00:00+00 to 2026-09-25 07:55:00+00 • 41 trades executed

+59.10%
2 Years Return
$19,558.27
Current Value
71%
Win Rate
$11,509.54
Period Start
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PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 03:56:47

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
19.7 oversold
20d Trend
-37.8%
5d Trend
-40.3%
EMA20 Dist
-38.0%
ATR%
13.2%
Range Pos
3%
Bounce Ratio
0.3×
Green/Red 10d
4/6

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

44
Lifetime
Confidence: 84%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
12.9/35
Total Return
16.5/25
Win Rate
10.6/15
Profit Factor
4.3/15
Consistency
7.8/10
Raw Quality 52.1/100
× Confidence 0.84 = 44.0

30-Day Momentum

18
+3.0%
30d Return
67%
Win Rate
3
Trades
1.2×
Profit Factor
Quality: 28.6 Conf: 0.61×
Declining (-26 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (84%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
210,316
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-09-25 → 2026-09-25
Trading Days
731 days
Data Gaps
None detected
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Crypto: 0.15% maker / 0.25% taker (volume-tiered) • 24/7/365 trading

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary

Starting Capital
$11,509.54
Current Value
$19,558.27
Total P&L
$6,802.34
Max Drawdown
-25.9%
Sharpe Ratio
0.35

Trade Statistics

Total Trades
31
Winners / Losers
22 / 9
Best Trade
+9.11%
Worst Trade
-25.41%
Avg Trade Return
+2.23%
Avg Hold Time
8.9h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)

Asset Type
₿ Crypto
Fee Rate
0.25% per trade
Total Volume
$1,056,445.93
Estimated Fees
$2,641.11
Gross P&L
$6,802.34
Net P&L (after fees)
$4,161.23
Gross Return
+59.10%
Net Return (after fees)
+36.15%

⚠️ Crypto: Alpaca charges 0.25% taker fee (or 0.15% maker). This simulation uses the conservative 0.25% estimate on all trades.
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 XRPUSD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 731 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Complete Trade History

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Luke Liquidation had $11,509.54 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Nov 16, 2024 9:15am ET $1.13 10,185 $11,509.54 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 16, 2024 9:20am ET $1.22 10,185 $12,462.90 $12,402.97 +$893.43
(+8.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
6m held
2 🟢 BUY Nov 16, 2024 11:10pm ET $1.03 12,087 $12,402.97 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 17, 2024 2:05am ET $1.08 12,087 $13,058.35 $12,994.70 +$591.73
(+5.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
2.9h held
3 🟢 BUY Nov 24, 2024 7:40am ET $1.30 10,001 $12,994.70 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 24, 2024 8:15am ET $1.37 10,001 $13,743.95 $13,677.11 +$682.41
(+5.8%) 		🎯 +5% Target
36m held
4 🟢 BUY Dec 3, 2024 8:50am ET $2.40 5,707 $13,677.11 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 3, 2024 9:05am ET $2.58 5,707 $14,726.75 $14,655.74 +$978.63
(+7.7%) 		🎯 +5% Target
18m held
5 🟢 BUY Dec 4, 2024 8:20pm ET $2.19 6,693 $14,655.74 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 4, 2024 9:30pm ET $2.32 6,693 $15,540.56 $15,465.07 +$809.33
(+6.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1.2h held
6 🟢 BUY Dec 9, 2024 4:00pm ET $2.05 7,527 $15,465.07 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 9, 2024 4:05pm ET $2.18 7,527 $16,416.54 $16,336.83 +$871.76
(+6.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
6m held
7 🟢 BUY Dec 9, 2024 4:05pm ET $2.18 7,491 $16,336.83 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 9, 2024 4:20pm ET $2.30 7,491 $17,193.04 $17,109.21 +$772.38
(+5.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
18m held
8 🟢 BUY Dec 20, 2024 5:10am ET $2.06 8,324 $17,109.21 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 20, 2024 6:35am ET $1.98 8,324 $16,459.13 $16,375.21 $-734.00
(-3.8%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.4h held
9 🟢 BUY Jan 27, 2025 2:25am ET $2.68 6,119 $16,375.21 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 27, 2025 2:40am ET $2.82 6,119 $17,243.54 $17,159.49 +$784.28
(+5.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
18m held
10 🟢 BUY Feb 2, 2025 12:50pm ET $2.54 6,766 $17,159.49 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 2, 2025 2:35pm ET $2.67 6,766 $18,086.05 $17,997.94 +$838.45
(+5.4%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1.8h held
11 🟢 BUY Feb 2, 2025 9:05pm ET $1.98 9,095 $17,997.94 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 2, 2025 9:10pm ET $2.10 9,095 $19,099.05 $19,006.30 +$1,008.36
(+6.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
6m held
12 🟢 BUY Feb 4, 2025 4:40pm ET $2.43 7,814 $19,006.30 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 4, 2025 8:00pm ET $2.56 7,814 $20,015.84 $19,918.29 +$911.99
(+5.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
3.3h held
13 🟢 BUY Apr 2, 2025 6:40pm ET $1.99 9,998 $19,918.29 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 3, 2025 6:40pm ET $2.06 9,998 $20,589.17 $20,487.90 +$569.61
(+3.4%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
1d held
14 🟢 BUY Oct 10, 2025 5:10pm ET $2.30 8,927 $20,487.90 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 10, 2025 5:15pm ET $1.71 8,927 $15,281.56 $15,192.14 $-5,295.76
(-25.4%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
6m held
15 🟢 BUY Oct 10, 2025 5:15pm ET $1.71 8,875 $15,192.14 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 10, 2025 5:20pm ET $1.87 8,875 $16,575.74 $16,496.33 +$1,304.19
(+9.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
6m held
16 🟢 BUY Oct 10, 2025 5:20pm ET $1.87 8,832 $16,496.33 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 10, 2025 5:30pm ET $2.03 8,832 $17,963.40 $17,877.25 +$1,380.92
(+8.9%) 		🎯 +5% Target
12m held
17 🟢 BUY Oct 10, 2025 7:05pm ET $2.32 7,698 $17,877.25 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 10, 2025 10:35pm ET $2.44 7,698 $18,777.19 $18,685.56 +$808.31
(+5.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
3.5h held
18 🟢 BUY Feb 16, 2026 12:10pm ET $1.49 12,574 $18,685.56 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 17, 2026 9:45am ET $1.43 12,574 $17,984.38 $17,984.38 $-792.85
(-3.8%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
21.6h held
19 🟢 BUY Feb 25, 2026 6:25pm ET $1.44 12,500 $17,984.38 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 26, 2026 11:50am ET $1.39 12,500 $17,375.36 $17,375.36 $-697.42
(-3.4%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
17.4h held
20 🟢 BUY Mar 21, 2026 5:50pm ET $1.44 12,070 $17,375.36 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 22, 2026 4:20am ET $1.40 12,070 $16,841.64 $16,841.64 $-619.26
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
10.5h held
21 🟢 BUY Jun 2, 2026 11:30am ET $1.22 13,801 $16,841.64 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 3, 2026 11:30am ET $1.22 13,801 $16,850.06 $16,850.06 $-75.81
(+0.0%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
1d held
22 🟢 BUY Jun 3, 2026 9:55pm ET $1.16 14,529 $16,850.06 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 4, 2026 9:55pm ET $1.16 14,529 $16,800.95 $16,800.95 $-133.24
(-0.3%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
1d held
23 🟢 BUY Jun 5, 2026 2:20am ET $1.10 15,304 $16,800.95 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 6, 2026 12:30am ET $1.06 15,304 $16,209.14 $16,209.14 $-674.34
(-3.5%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
22.2h held
24 🟢 BUY Jun 25, 2026 9:55am ET $1.01 16,004 $16,209.14 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 26, 2026 9:55am ET $1.04 16,004 $16,588.60 $16,588.60 +$297.46
(+2.3%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
1d held
25 🟢 BUY Jul 10, 2026 11:25am ET $1.10 15,050 $16,588.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 11, 2026 11:25am ET $1.12 15,050 $16,787.71 $16,787.71 +$115.67
(+1.2%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
1d held
26 🟢 BUY Aug 21, 2026 2:55pm ET $1.38 12,186 $16,787.71 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 21, 2026 6:40pm ET $1.45 12,186 $17,657.42 $17,657.42 +$783.60
(+5.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
3.8h held
27 🟢 BUY Aug 22, 2026 1:10am ET $1.52 11,603 $17,657.42 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 22, 2026 3:25am ET $1.61 11,603 $18,710.77 $18,710.77 +$962.43
(+6.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
2.3h held
28 🟢 BUY Aug 22, 2026 6:10am ET $1.46 12,805 $18,710.77 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 23, 2026 6:10am ET $1.48 12,805 $18,979.68 $18,979.68 +$174.68
(+1.4%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
1d held
29 🟢 BUY Aug 30, 2026 7:30pm ET $1.36 13,916 $18,979.68 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 31, 2026 7:30pm ET $1.38 13,916 $19,198.72 $19,198.72 +$123.59
(+1.2%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
1d held
30 🟢 BUY Sep 22, 2026 1:00am ET $1.51 12,700 $19,198.72 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 22, 2026 9:55am ET $1.59 12,700 $20,169.23 $20,169.23 +$872.09
(+5.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
8.9h held
31 🟢 BUY Sep 23, 2026 11:10am ET $1.53 13,184 $20,169.23 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 23, 2026 4:25pm ET $1.48 13,184 $19,558.27 $19,558.27 $-710.28
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
5.3h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $19,558.27
Net Profit/Loss: +$9,558.27
Total Return: +95.58%
Back to Luke Liquidation