Compendium › Macro Monday › COIN
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
COIN
Alpaca Tradeable

Macro Monday's Analysis

Last Year: 2025-09-24 to present • 9 trades in period

+28.96%
Last Year Return
$17,819.77
Current Value
56%
Win Rate
$13,817.67
Period Start
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PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 21:05:52

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
13.1 oversold
20d Trend
-42.6%
5d Trend
-24.4%
EMA20 Dist
-25.8%
ATR%
6.8%
Range Pos
2%
Bounce Ratio
0.1×
Green/Red 10d
2/8

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

45
Lifetime
Confidence: 62%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
35.0/35
Total Return
15.8/25
Win Rate
8.6/15
Profit Factor
6.8/15
Consistency
5.9/10
Raw Quality 72.1/100
× Confidence 0.62 = 44.7

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (62%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Year)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
29,437
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-09-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
266 days
Data Gaps
None (10 market holidays)

Market Closed (10 days)

2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Year)

Period Start Capital
$13,817.67
Current Value
$17,819.77
Period P&L
$4,002.10
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
-3.09

Trade Statistics (Last Year)

Trades in Period
9
Winners / Losers
5 / 4
Best Trade
+12.10%
Worst Trade
-3.74%
Avg Trade Return
+3.04%
Avg Hold Time
1.2d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$259,660.01
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$4,002.10
Net P&L (after fees)
$4,002.10
Gross Return
+28.96%
Net Return (after fees)
+28.96%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 COIN Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 266 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Year - 9 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Macro Monday had $13,817.67 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Oct 13, 2025 10:25am ET $353.22 39 $13,817.67 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 14, 2025 3:55pm ET $341.41 39 $13,355.67 $13,355.67 $-462.00
(-3.3%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Nov 17, 2025 9:30am ET $271.84 49 $13,355.67 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 18, 2025 3:55pm ET $261.67 49 $12,856.25 $12,856.25 $-499.42
(-3.7%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Feb 23, 2026 9:30am ET $164.64 78 $12,856.25 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 24, 2026 3:55pm ET $162.03 78 $12,652.44 $12,652.44 $-203.81
(-1.6%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Mar 9, 2026 10:15am ET $193.35 65 $12,652.44 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 10, 2026 3:55pm ET $197.05 65 $12,894.56 $12,894.56 +$242.12
(+1.9%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Mar 30, 2026 10:30am ET $160.52 80 $12,894.56 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 31, 2026 3:55pm ET $174.87 80 $14,046.89 $14,046.89 +$1,152.33
(+8.9%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Apr 13, 2026 9:30am ET $164.85 85 $14,046.89 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 14, 2026 3:55pm ET $184.29 85 $15,702.90 $15,702.90 +$1,656.01
(+11.8%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Apr 27, 2026 9:30am ET $199.22 79 $15,702.90 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 28, 2026 3:55pm ET $194.41 79 $15,323.85 $15,323.85 $-379.05
(-2.4%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
8 🟢 BUY Jul 20, 2026 10:45am ET $156.93 98 $15,323.85 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 21, 2026 3:55pm ET $175.92 98 $17,178.73 $17,178.73 +$1,854.88
(+12.1%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
9 🟢 BUY Jul 27, 2026 10:30am ET $161.86 106 $17,178.73 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 28, 2026 3:55pm ET $167.90 106 $17,819.77 $17,819.77 +$641.04
(+3.7%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $17,819.77
Net Profit/Loss: +$7,819.77
Total Return: +78.20%
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