Compendium › Macro Monday › NVDA
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
NVDA
Alpaca Tradeable

Macro Monday's Analysis

Last Year: 2025-09-25 to present • 4 trades in period

-1.81%
Last Year Return
$16,573.46
Current Value
50%
Win Rate
$16,878.29
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:09:20

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
33.4 neutral
20d Trend
-9.7%
5d Trend
-7.1%
EMA20 Dist
-5.9%
ATR%
3.2%
Range Pos
3%
Bounce Ratio
0.7×
Green/Red 10d
4/6

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

41
Lifetime
Confidence: 58%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
35.0/35
Total Return
15.2/25
Win Rate
8.4/15
Profit Factor
5.9/15
Consistency
7.0/10
Raw Quality 71.5/100
× Confidence 0.58 = 41.2

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (58%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Year)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
29,908
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-09-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
265 days
Data Gaps
None (10 market holidays)

Market Closed (10 days)

2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Year)

Period Start Capital
$16,878.29
Current Value
$16,573.46
Period P&L
$-304.83
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.96

Trade Statistics (Last Year)

Trades in Period
4
Winners / Losers
2 / 2
Best Trade
+4.58%
Worst Trade
-3.17%
Avg Trade Return
-0.41%
Avg Hold Time
3.5d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$133,055.06
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-304.83
Net P&L (after fees)
$-304.83
Gross Return
-1.81%
Net Return (after fees)
-1.81%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 NVDA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 265 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Year - 4 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Macro Monday had $16,878.29 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Nov 17, 2025 9:30am ET $186.83 90 $16,878.29 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 20, 2025 3:55pm ET $180.91 90 $16,343.48 $16,343.48 $-534.81
(-3.2%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Nov 24, 2025 9:45am ET $176.86 92 $16,343.48 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 28, 2025 1:00pm ET $176.98 92 $16,354.57 $16,354.57 +$11.09
(+0.1%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Mar 2, 2026 9:30am ET $174.89 94 $16,354.57 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 5, 2026 3:55pm ET $182.90 94 $17,103.61 $17,103.61 +$749.04
(+4.6%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Jul 27, 2026 10:10am ET $201.14 85 $17,103.61 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 30, 2026 3:55pm ET $194.90 85 $16,573.46 $16,573.46 $-530.15
(-3.1%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $16,573.46
Net Profit/Loss: +$6,573.46
Total Return: +65.73%
Back to Macro Monday