Compendium › Macro Monday › XLK
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
XLK
Alpaca Tradeable

Macro Monday's Analysis

Last Year: 2025-09-24 to present • 5 trades in period

+3.58%
Last Year Return
$14,977.12
Current Value
60%
Win Rate
$14,460.03
Period Start
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PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 22:48:03

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
30.1 neutral
20d Trend
-8.0%
5d Trend
-6.2%
EMA20 Dist
-5.6%
ATR%
2.5%
Range Pos
2%
Bounce Ratio
0.7×
Green/Red 10d
4/6

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

46
Lifetime
Confidence: 56%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
34.8/35
Total Return
14.2/25
Win Rate
11.8/15
Profit Factor
14.8/15
Consistency
7.0/10
Raw Quality 82.6/100
× Confidence 0.56 = 46.5

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (56%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Year)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
24,868
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-09-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
266 days
Data Gaps
None (10 market holidays)

Market Closed (10 days)

2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Year)

Period Start Capital
$14,460.03
Current Value
$14,977.12
Period P&L
$517.09
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
—

Trade Statistics (Last Year)

Trades in Period
5
Winners / Losers
3 / 2
Best Trade
+4.29%
Worst Trade
-4.19%
Avg Trade Return
+0.76%
Avg Hold Time
2.3d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$148,092.48
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$517.09
Net P&L (after fees)
$517.09
Gross Return
+3.58%
Net Return (after fees)
+3.58%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 XLK Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 266 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Year - 5 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Macro Monday had $14,460.03 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Nov 17, 2025 9:30am ET $143.25 101 $14,460.03 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 19, 2025 3:55pm ET $140.50 101 $14,182.43 $14,182.43 $-277.60
(-1.9%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Mar 2, 2026 9:30am ET $136.68 104 $14,182.43 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 4, 2026 3:55pm ET $139.96 104 $14,522.24 $14,522.24 +$339.81
(+2.4%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Mar 9, 2026 9:30am ET $136.07 107 $14,522.24 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 11, 2026 3:55pm ET $140.46 107 $14,990.23 $14,990.23 +$467.99
(+3.2%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Mar 30, 2026 10:30am ET $129.30 116 $14,990.23 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 1, 2026 3:55pm ET $134.84 116 $15,632.76 $15,632.76 +$642.53
(+4.3%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Jul 27, 2026 10:20am ET $173.82 90 $15,632.76 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 29, 2026 3:55pm ET $166.53 90 $14,977.12 $14,977.12 $-655.64
(-4.2%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $14,977.12
Net Profit/Loss: +$4,977.12
Total Return: +49.77%
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