Compendium › Macro Monday › TSLA
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
TSLA
Alpaca Tradeable

Macro Monday's Analysis

Last 6 Months: 2026-03-24 to present • 2 trades in period

-1.04%
Last 6 Months Return
$16,666.02
Current Value
50%
Win Rate
$16,841.23
Period Start
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PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 19:24:03

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
4.96%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.26%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
30.3 neutral
20d Trend
-11.8%
5d Trend
-10.2%
EMA20 Dist
-9.3%
ATR%
3.6%
Range Pos
7%
Bounce Ratio
0.8×
Green/Red 10d
3/7

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

39
Lifetime
Confidence: 57%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
35.0/35
Total Return
15.2/25
Win Rate
6.1/15
Profit Factor
7.0/15
Consistency
5.5/10
Raw Quality 68.8/100
× Confidence 0.57 = 39.4

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (57%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
9,984
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
128 days
Data Gaps
None (5 market holidays)

Market Closed (5 days)

2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)

Period Start Capital
$16,841.23
Current Value
$16,666.02
Period P&L
$-175.21
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.21

Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)

Trades in Period
2
Winners / Losers
1 / 1
Best Trade
+1.88%
Worst Trade
-2.87%
Avg Trade Return
-0.49%
Avg Hold Time
2.2d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$67,822.43
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-175.21
Net P&L (after fees)
$-175.21
Gross Return
-1.04%
Net Return (after fees)
-1.04%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 TSLA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 128 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 6 Months - 2 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Macro Monday had $16,841.23 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Apr 27, 2026 9:50am ET $366.52 46 $16,841.23 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 29, 2026 3:55pm ET $373.40 46 $17,157.59 $17,157.59 +$316.36
(+1.9%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Jul 27, 2026 10:30am ET $307.15 56 $17,157.59 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 29, 2026 3:55pm ET $298.35 56 $16,666.02 $16,666.02 $-491.57
(-2.9%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $16,666.02
Net Profit/Loss: +$6,666.02
Total Return: +66.66%
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