Compendium › Macro Monday › CRWD
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
CRWD
Alpaca Tradeable

Macro Monday's Analysis

to 2026-09-24 19:55:00+00 • 18 trades executed

+5.60%
2 Years Return
$12,199.35
Current Value
50%
Win Rate
$11,552.16
Period Start
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PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 19:08:31

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
4.96%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.26%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
19.8 oversold
20d Trend
-20.5%
5d Trend
-15.4%
EMA20 Dist
-14.5%
ATR%
4.6%
Range Pos
0%
Bounce Ratio
0.2×
Green/Red 10d
3/7

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

24
Lifetime
Confidence: 58%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
15.4/35
Total Return
11.3/25
Win Rate
5.8/15
Profit Factor
2.5/15
Consistency
5.5/10
Raw Quality 40.5/100
× Confidence 0.58 = 23.5

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (58%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
53,217
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-09-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
534 days
Data Gaps
None (21 market holidays)

Market Closed (21 days)

2024-11-28 — Thanksgiving, 2024-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2025-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2025-01-09 — National Day of Mourning (Carter), 2025-01-20 — MLK Jr. Day, 2025-02-17 — Presidents' Day, 2025-04-18 — Good Friday, 2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed) ... and 1 more
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary

Starting Capital
$11,552.16
Current Value
$12,199.35
Total P&L
$647.19
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.47

Trade Statistics

Total Trades
16
Winners / Losers
8 / 8
Best Trade
+5.73%
Worst Trade
-7.13%
Avg Trade Return
+0.43%
Avg Hold Time
1.3d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$398,185.09
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$647.19
Net P&L (after fees)
$647.19
Gross Return
+5.60%
Net Return (after fees)
+5.60%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 CRWD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 534 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Complete Trade History

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Macro Monday had $11,552.16 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Oct 7, 2024 9:50am ET $286.81 40 $11,552.16 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 8, 2024 3:55pm ET $292.93 40 $11,798.70 $11,798.70 +$246.54
(+2.1%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Oct 14, 2024 10:10am ET $315.49 37 $11,798.70 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 15, 2024 3:55pm ET $302.31 37 $11,305.79 $11,305.79 $-492.91
(-4.2%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Nov 4, 2024 9:35am ET $296.80 38 $11,305.79 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 5, 2024 3:55pm ET $307.65 38 $11,719.09 $11,719.09 +$413.30
(+3.7%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Jan 13, 2025 9:30am ET $342.26 34 $11,719.09 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 14, 2025 3:55pm ET $348.15 34 $11,920.77 $11,920.77 +$201.68
(+1.7%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Feb 3, 2025 9:30am ET $387.49 31 $11,920.77 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 4, 2025 3:55pm ET $407.67 31 $12,541.59 $12,541.59 +$620.82
(+5.2%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Feb 24, 2025 9:30am ET $402.12 31 $12,541.59 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 25, 2025 3:55pm ET $379.47 31 $11,835.17 $11,835.17 $-706.42
(-5.6%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Mar 3, 2025 10:30am ET $394.51 30 $11,835.17 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 4, 2025 3:55pm ET $390.22 30 $11,706.47 $11,706.47 $-128.70
(-1.1%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
8 🟢 BUY Mar 10, 2025 9:30am ET $316.92 37 $11,706.47 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 11, 2025 3:55pm ET $329.69 37 $12,178.00 $12,178.00 +$471.53
(+4.0%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
9 🟢 BUY Mar 31, 2025 9:30am ET $343.00 36 $12,178.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 1, 2025 3:55pm ET $362.67 36 $12,876.37 $12,876.37 +$698.37
(+5.7%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
10 🟢 BUY Apr 7, 2025 9:30am ET $309.78 42 $12,876.37 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2025 3:55pm ET $325.55 42 $13,531.87 $13,531.87 +$655.50
(+5.1%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
11 🟢 BUY Apr 21, 2025 9:30am ET $370.53 37 $13,531.87 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 22, 2025 3:55pm ET $368.71 37 $13,465.40 $13,465.40 $-66.47
(-0.5%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
12 🟢 BUY Jun 23, 2025 9:30am ET $465.26 29 $13,465.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 24, 2025 3:55pm ET $485.39 29 $14,048.00 $14,048.00 +$582.60
(+4.3%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
13 🟢 BUY Feb 23, 2026 9:30am ET $377.14 37 $14,048.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 24, 2026 3:55pm ET $350.25 37 $13,046.38 $13,046.38 $-1,001.62
(-7.1%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
14 🟢 BUY Mar 16, 2026 9:45am ET $433.67 30 $13,046.38 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 17, 2026 3:55pm ET $432.95 30 $13,024.72 $13,024.72 $-21.66
(-0.2%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
15 🟢 BUY Jul 20, 2026 10:35am ET $203.71 64 $13,024.72 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 21, 2026 3:55pm ET $191.10 64 $12,218.47 $12,218.47 $-806.25
(-6.2%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
16 🟢 BUY Jul 27, 2026 10:40am ET $182.15 67 $12,218.47 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 28, 2026 3:55pm ET $181.87 67 $12,199.35 $12,199.35 $-19.12
(-0.2%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $12,199.35
Net Profit/Loss: +$2,199.35
Total Return: +21.99%
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