Compendium › Macro Monday › MU
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
MU
Alpaca Tradeable

Macro Monday's Analysis

to 2026-09-24 19:55:00+00 • 20 trades executed

+72.08%
2 Years Return
$18,637.57
Current Value
61%
Win Rate
$10,830.97
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 23:56:30

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
37.4 neutral
20d Trend
-12.8%
5d Trend
-1.7%
EMA20 Dist
-6.9%
ATR%
5.6%
Range Pos
6%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
3/7

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

45
Lifetime
Confidence: 60%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
35.0/35
Total Return
16.1/25
Win Rate
9.4/15
Profit Factor
6.1/15
Consistency
8.3/10
Raw Quality 74.9/100
× Confidence 0.60 = 44.7

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (60%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
73,744
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-09-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
520 days
Data Gaps
2 days with gaps

Data Gap Notice

The following dates had fewer candles than expected. This could be due to early market closes, API rate limits during data collection, or low volume periods. Simulation results may be slightly affected.

2024-11-29 (no data), 2025-11-28 (no data)

Market Closed (21 days)

2024-11-28 — Thanksgiving, 2024-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2025-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2025-01-09 — National Day of Mourning (Carter), 2025-01-20 — MLK Jr. Day, 2025-02-17 — Presidents' Day, 2025-04-18 — Good Friday, 2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed) ... and 1 more
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary

Starting Capital
$10,830.97
Current Value
$18,637.57
Total P&L
$7,806.60
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.17

Trade Statistics

Total Trades
18
Winners / Losers
11 / 7
Best Trade
+18.30%
Worst Trade
-17.05%
Avg Trade Return
+3.47%
Avg Hold Time
3.2d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$494,930.31
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$7,806.60
Net P&L (after fees)
$7,806.60
Gross Return
+72.08%
Net Return (after fees)
+72.08%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 MU Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 520 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Complete Trade History

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Macro Monday had $10,830.97 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jan 13, 2025 9:30am ET $93.93 115 $10,830.97 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 16, 2025 3:55pm ET $102.59 115 $11,829.55 $11,829.55 +$998.58
(+9.2%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Feb 3, 2025 9:30am ET $88.16 134 $11,829.55 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 6, 2025 3:55pm ET $94.52 134 $12,683.67 $12,683.67 +$854.12
(+7.2%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Feb 24, 2025 10:30am ET $97.50 130 $12,683.67 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 27, 2025 3:55pm ET $91.75 130 $11,936.27 $11,936.27 $-747.40
(-5.9%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Mar 10, 2025 9:30am ET $89.52 133 $11,936.27 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 13, 2025 3:55pm ET $94.90 133 $12,653.62 $12,653.62 +$717.35
(+6.0%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Mar 31, 2025 9:30am ET $84.88 149 $12,653.62 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 3, 2025 3:55pm ET $74.34 149 $11,082.35 $11,082.35 $-1,571.27
(-12.4%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Apr 7, 2025 9:30am ET $63.03 176 $11,082.35 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 10, 2025 3:55pm ET $70.05 176 $12,316.65 $12,316.65 +$1,234.30
(+11.1%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Apr 21, 2025 9:30am ET $66.07 186 $12,316.65 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 24, 2025 3:55pm ET $78.16 186 $14,570.45 $14,570.45 +$2,253.80
(+18.3%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
8 🟢 BUY Apr 28, 2025 9:30am ET $77.21 189 $14,570.45 — — —
🔴 SELL May 1, 2025 3:55pm ET $77.28 189 $14,583.66 $14,583.66 +$13.21
(+0.1%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
9 🟢 BUY Nov 17, 2025 9:30am ET $242.44 60 $14,583.66 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 20, 2025 2:55pm ET $201.10 60 $12,096.91 $12,096.91 $-2,486.75
(-17.1%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
10 🟢 BUY Feb 23, 2026 10:50am ET $419.30 29 $12,096.91 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 26, 2026 3:55pm ET $414.09 29 $11,946.74 $11,946.74 $-150.17
(-1.2%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
11 🟢 BUY Mar 2, 2026 10:20am ET $402.79 30 $11,946.74 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 5, 2026 3:55pm ET $395.54 30 $11,731.79 $11,731.79 $-214.95
(-1.8%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
12 🟢 BUY Mar 9, 2026 9:30am ET $365.00 32 $11,731.79 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 12, 2026 3:55pm ET $405.43 32 $13,031.29 $13,031.29 +$1,299.50
(+11.1%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
13 🟢 BUY Mar 30, 2026 9:40am ET $345.18 38 $13,031.29 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 2, 2026 3:55pm ET $366.37 38 $13,831.06 $13,831.06 +$799.77
(+6.1%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
14 🟢 BUY Apr 6, 2026 10:45am ET $376.27 37 $13,831.06 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 9, 2026 3:55pm ET $421.60 37 $15,497.32 $15,497.32 +$1,666.26
(+12.0%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
15 🟢 BUY Apr 13, 2026 9:40am ET $415.50 37 $15,497.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 16, 2026 3:55pm ET $455.74 37 $16,998.19 $16,998.19 +$1,500.87
(+9.7%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
16 🟢 BUY Apr 27, 2026 10:55am ET $517.91 33 $16,998.19 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 30, 2026 3:55pm ET $515.12 33 $16,906.78 $16,906.78 $-91.41
(-0.5%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
17 🟢 BUY Jul 20, 2026 10:40am ET $879.54 19 $16,906.78 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 23, 2026 3:55pm ET $990.24 19 $19,034.58 $19,034.58 +$2,127.80
(+12.6%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
18 🟢 BUY Jul 27, 2026 10:00am ET $892.26 21 $19,034.58 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 30, 2026 3:55pm ET $873.65 21 $18,637.58 $18,637.57 $-397.01
(-2.1%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $18,637.57
Net Profit/Loss: +$8,637.57
Total Return: +86.38%
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