Compendium › Macro Monday › AVGO
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
AVGO
Alpaca Tradeable

Macro Monday's Analysis

Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 7 trades in period

+20.02%
Year to Date Return
$18,710.39
Current Value
71%
Win Rate
$15,589.07
Period Start
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PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:17:35

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
32.7 neutral
20d Trend
-13.0%
5d Trend
-6.9%
EMA20 Dist
-6.4%
ATR%
4.0%
Range Pos
10%
Bounce Ratio
0.5×
Green/Red 10d
7/3

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

45
Lifetime
Confidence: 61%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
35.0/35
Total Return
16.2/25
Win Rate
8.9/15
Profit Factor
7.7/15
Consistency
7.1/10
Raw Quality 74.9/100
× Confidence 0.61 = 45.3

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (61%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Year to Date)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
17,092
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
189 days
Data Gaps
None (8 market holidays)

Market Closed (8 days)

2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Year to Date)

Period Start Capital
$15,589.07
Current Value
$18,710.39
Period P&L
$3,121.32
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.76

Trade Statistics (Year to Date)

Trades in Period
7
Winners / Losers
5 / 2
Best Trade
+7.16%
Worst Trade
-3.96%
Avg Trade Return
+2.70%
Avg Hold Time
3.2d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$234,959.27
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$3,121.32
Net P&L (after fees)
$3,121.32
Gross Return
+20.02%
Net Return (after fees)
+20.02%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 AVGO Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 189 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Year to Date - 7 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Macro Monday had $15,589.07 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Feb 23, 2026 10:35am ET $334.60 47 $15,589.07 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 26, 2026 3:55pm ET $321.34 47 $14,971.28 $14,971.28 $-617.79
(-4.0%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Mar 2, 2026 9:30am ET $309.36 48 $14,971.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 5, 2026 3:55pm ET $331.52 48 $16,043.94 $16,043.94 +$1,072.66
(+7.2%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Mar 9, 2026 9:30am ET $327.32 49 $16,043.94 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 12, 2026 3:55pm ET $336.15 49 $16,477.25 $16,477.25 +$433.31
(+2.7%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Mar 30, 2026 9:50am ET $298.41 55 $16,477.25 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 2, 2026 3:55pm ET $314.04 55 $17,340.29 $17,340.29 +$863.04
(+5.2%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Apr 27, 2026 9:50am ET $418.25 41 $17,340.29 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 30, 2026 3:55pm ET $416.63 41 $17,273.28 $17,273.28 $-67.01
(-0.4%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Jun 15, 2026 10:50am ET $390.05 44 $17,273.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 18, 2026 3:55pm ET $411.51 44 $18,223.86 $18,223.86 +$950.58
(+5.5%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Jul 27, 2026 10:25am ET $377.33 48 $18,223.86 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 30, 2026 3:55pm ET $387.40 48 $18,710.39 $18,710.39 +$486.53
(+2.7%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $18,710.39
Net Profit/Loss: +$8,710.39
Total Return: +87.10%
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