Compendium › Macro Monday › CRWD
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
CRWD
Alpaca Tradeable

Macro Monday's Analysis

Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 4 trades in period

-13.16%
Year to Date Return
$12,199.35
Current Value
0%
Win Rate
$14,048.00
Period Start
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PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 23:20:41

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
19.8 oversold
20d Trend
-20.5%
5d Trend
-15.4%
EMA20 Dist
-14.5%
ATR%
4.6%
Range Pos
0%
Bounce Ratio
0.2×
Green/Red 10d
3/7

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

24
Lifetime
Confidence: 58%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
15.4/35
Total Return
11.3/25
Win Rate
5.8/15
Profit Factor
2.5/15
Consistency
5.5/10
Raw Quality 40.5/100
× Confidence 0.58 = 23.5

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (58%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Year to Date)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
15,761
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
189 days
Data Gaps
None (8 market holidays)

Market Closed (8 days)

2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Year to Date)

Period Start Capital
$14,048.00
Current Value
$12,199.35
Period P&L
$-1,848.65
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
-1.04

Trade Statistics (Year to Date)

Trades in Period
4
Winners / Losers
0 / 4
Best Trade
-0.16%
Worst Trade
-7.13%
Avg Trade Return
-3.41%
Avg Hold Time
1.2d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$102,826.49
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-1,848.65
Net P&L (after fees)
$-1,848.65
Gross Return
-13.16%
Net Return (after fees)
-13.16%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 CRWD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 189 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Year to Date - 4 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Macro Monday had $14,048.00 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Feb 23, 2026 9:30am ET $377.14 37 $14,048.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 24, 2026 3:55pm ET $350.25 37 $13,046.38 $13,046.38 $-1,001.62
(-7.1%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Mar 16, 2026 9:45am ET $433.67 30 $13,046.38 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 17, 2026 3:55pm ET $432.95 30 $13,024.72 $13,024.72 $-21.66
(-0.2%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Jul 20, 2026 10:35am ET $203.71 64 $13,024.72 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 21, 2026 3:55pm ET $191.10 64 $12,218.47 $12,218.47 $-806.25
(-6.2%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Jul 27, 2026 10:40am ET $182.15 67 $12,218.47 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 28, 2026 3:55pm ET $181.87 67 $12,199.35 $12,199.35 $-19.12
(-0.2%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $12,199.35
Net Profit/Loss: +$2,199.35
Total Return: +21.99%
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