Compendium › Macro Monday › HOOD
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
HOOD
Alpaca Tradeable

Macro Monday's Analysis

Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 7 trades in period

+63.93%
Year to Date Return
$38,011.51
Current Value
86%
Win Rate
$23,187.36
Period Start
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PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:27:03

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
13.3 oversold
20d Trend
-41.6%
5d Trend
-28.6%
EMA20 Dist
-26.6%
ATR%
7.5%
Range Pos
2%
Bounce Ratio
0.1×
Green/Red 10d
1/9

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

53
Lifetime
Confidence: 61%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
35.0/35
Total Return
20.3/25
Win Rate
9.5/15
Profit Factor
15.0/15
Consistency
7.3/10
Raw Quality 87.1/100
× Confidence 0.61 = 52.9

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (61%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Year to Date)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
16,892
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
189 days
Data Gaps
None (8 market holidays)

Market Closed (8 days)

2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Year to Date)

Period Start Capital
$23,187.36
Current Value
$38,011.51
Period P&L
$14,824.15
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.81

Trade Statistics (Year to Date)

Trades in Period
7
Winners / Losers
6 / 1
Best Trade
+28.09%
Worst Trade
-5.07%
Avg Trade Return
+7.71%
Avg Hold Time
2.3d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$434,913.69
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$14,824.15
Net P&L (after fees)
$14,824.15
Gross Return
+63.93%
Net Return (after fees)
+63.93%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 HOOD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 189 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Year to Date - 7 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Macro Monday had $23,187.36 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Feb 23, 2026 9:30am ET $74.31 312 $23,187.36 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 25, 2026 3:55pm ET $77.36 312 $24,139.07 $24,139.07 +$951.71
(+4.1%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Mar 2, 2026 9:30am ET $73.49 328 $24,139.07 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 4, 2026 3:55pm ET $82.16 328 $26,988.72 $26,988.72 +$2,849.65
(+11.8%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Mar 9, 2026 9:30am ET $75.87 356 $26,988.72 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 11, 2026 3:55pm ET $78.80 356 $28,030.99 $28,030.99 +$1,042.27
(+3.9%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Mar 30, 2026 10:30am ET $66.24 423 $28,030.99 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 1, 2026 3:55pm ET $70.10 423 $29,662.32 $29,662.32 +$1,631.33
(+5.8%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Apr 13, 2026 9:30am ET $68.21 435 $29,662.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 15, 2026 3:55pm ET $87.36 435 $37,994.99 $37,994.99 +$8,332.67
(+28.1%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Jul 20, 2026 9:55am ET $99.15 383 $37,994.99 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 22, 2026 3:55pm ET $104.49 383 $40,041.31 $40,041.31 +$2,046.32
(+5.4%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Jul 27, 2026 10:30am ET $94.19 425 $40,041.31 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 29, 2026 3:55pm ET $89.42 425 $38,011.51 $38,011.51 $-2,029.80
(-5.1%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $38,011.51
Net Profit/Loss: +$28,011.51
Total Return: +280.12%
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