Compendium › Macro Monday › MSFT
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
MSFT
Alpaca Tradeable

Macro Monday's Analysis

Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 4 trades in period

+4.41%
Year to Date Return
$14,467.84
Current Value
50%
Win Rate
$13,857.06
Period Start
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PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:17:41

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
22.7 oversold
20d Trend
-16.1%
5d Trend
-8.1%
EMA20 Dist
-9.8%
ATR%
3.8%
Range Pos
2%
Bounce Ratio
0.3×
Green/Red 10d
2/8

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

43
Lifetime
Confidence: 55%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
31.3/35
Total Return
13.8/25
Win Rate
12.5/15
Profit Factor
15.0/15
Consistency
6.7/10
Raw Quality 79.2/100
× Confidence 0.55 = 43.3

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (55%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Year to Date)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
17,059
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
189 days
Data Gaps
None (8 market holidays)

Market Closed (8 days)

2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Year to Date)

Period Start Capital
$13,857.06
Current Value
$14,467.84
Period P&L
$610.78
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.81

Trade Statistics (Year to Date)

Trades in Period
4
Winners / Losers
2 / 2
Best Trade
+3.13%
Worst Trade
-0.15%
Avg Trade Return
+1.09%
Avg Hold Time
2.3d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$114,440.15
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$610.78
Net P&L (after fees)
$610.78
Gross Return
+4.41%
Net Return (after fees)
+4.41%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 MSFT Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 189 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Year to Date - 4 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Macro Monday had $13,857.06 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Feb 23, 2026 10:25am ET $388.43 36 $13,857.06 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 25, 2026 3:55pm ET $400.58 36 $14,290.51 $14,290.51 +$433.45
(+3.1%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Mar 9, 2026 9:30am ET $405.27 35 $14,290.51 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 11, 2026 3:55pm ET $404.91 35 $14,277.78 $14,277.78 $-12.73
(-0.1%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Apr 27, 2026 9:35am ET $417.75 34 $14,277.78 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 29, 2026 3:55pm ET $423.94 34 $14,489.34 $14,489.34 +$211.56
(+1.5%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Jul 20, 2026 9:50am ET $390.86 37 $14,489.34 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 22, 2026 3:55pm ET $390.28 37 $14,467.84 $14,467.84 $-21.50
(-0.1%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $14,467.84
Net Profit/Loss: +$4,467.84
Total Return: +44.68%
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