Compendium › Macro Monday › TQQQ
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
TQQQ
Alpaca Tradeable

Macro Monday's Analysis

Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 3 trades in period

+4.66%
Year to Date Return
$21,358.54
Current Value
67%
Win Rate
$20,407.93
Period Start
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PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 23:57:32

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
31.4 neutral
20d Trend
-11.9%
5d Trend
-13.2%
EMA20 Dist
-11.3%
ATR%
5.7%
Range Pos
9%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
4/6

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

45
Lifetime
Confidence: 54%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
35.0/35
Total Return
17.1/25
Win Rate
12.3/15
Profit Factor
11.4/15
Consistency
7.1/10
Raw Quality 82.9/100
× Confidence 0.54 = 45.2

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (54%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Year to Date)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
17,124
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
189 days
Data Gaps
None (8 market holidays)

Market Closed (8 days)

2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Year to Date)

Period Start Capital
$20,407.93
Current Value
$21,358.54
Period P&L
$950.61
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.27

Trade Statistics (Year to Date)

Trades in Period
3
Winners / Losers
2 / 1
Best Trade
+6.72%
Worst Trade
-7.52%
Avg Trade Return
+1.75%
Avg Hold Time
2.3d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$131,238.36
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$950.61
Net P&L (after fees)
$950.61
Gross Return
+4.66%
Net Return (after fees)
+4.66%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 TQQQ Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 189 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Year to Date - 3 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Macro Monday had $20,407.93 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Mar 2, 2026 9:30am ET $47.47 430 $20,407.93 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 4, 2026 3:55pm ET $50.34 430 $21,641.32 $21,641.32 +$1,233.39
(+6.0%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Mar 9, 2026 9:30am ET $46.31 467 $21,641.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 11, 2026 3:55pm ET $49.42 467 $23,094.62 $23,094.62 +$1,453.30
(+6.7%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Jul 27, 2026 10:30am ET $62.39 370 $23,094.62 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 29, 2026 3:55pm ET $57.70 370 $21,358.54 $21,358.54 $-1,736.08
(-7.5%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $21,358.54
Net Profit/Loss: +$11,358.54
Total Return: +113.59%
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