Compendium › Macro Monday › HD
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
HD
Alpaca Tradeable

Macro Monday's Analysis

to 2026-09-24 19:55:00+00 • 18 trades executed

+6.28%
2 Years Return
$10,856.46
Current Value
60%
Win Rate
$10,214.61
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
Signals generated 2026-09-24 18:59:56

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
4.96%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.26%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
58.5 neutral
20d Trend
+2.0%
5d Trend
+2.1%
EMA20 Dist
+1.4%
ATR%
2.0%
Range Pos
82%
Bounce Ratio
0.9×
Green/Red 10d
5/5

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

16
Lifetime
Confidence: 56%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
6.0/35
Total Return
8.1/25
Win Rate
7.9/15
Profit Factor
1.3/15
Consistency
5.0/10
Raw Quality 28.4/100
× Confidence 0.56 = 16.0

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (56%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
45,352
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-09-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
525 days
Data Gaps
None (21 market holidays)

Market Closed (21 days)

2024-11-28 — Thanksgiving, 2024-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2025-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2025-01-09 — National Day of Mourning (Carter), 2025-01-20 — MLK Jr. Day, 2025-02-17 — Presidents' Day, 2025-04-18 — Good Friday, 2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed) ... and 1 more
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary

Starting Capital
$10,214.61
Current Value
$10,856.46
Total P&L
$641.85
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.51

Trade Statistics

Total Trades
15
Winners / Losers
9 / 6
Best Trade
+5.17%
Worst Trade
-7.55%
Avg Trade Return
+0.47%
Avg Hold Time
3.3d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$341,882.35
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$641.85
Net P&L (after fees)
$641.85
Gross Return
+6.28%
Net Return (after fees)
+6.28%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 HD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 525 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Complete Trade History

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Macro Monday had $10,214.61 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jan 13, 2025 10:55am ET $389.87 26 $10,214.61 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 16, 2025 3:55pm ET $409.42 26 $10,726.82 $10,726.82 +$512.21
(+5.0%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Feb 3, 2025 9:30am ET $405.74 26 $10,726.82 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 6, 2025 3:55pm ET $414.14 26 $10,948.80 $10,948.80 +$221.98
(+2.1%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Feb 24, 2025 9:35am ET $379.52 29 $10,948.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 27, 2025 3:55pm ET $390.55 29 $11,267.01 $11,267.01 +$318.21
(+2.9%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Apr 7, 2025 9:30am ET $336.41 33 $11,267.01 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 10, 2025 3:55pm ET $353.28 33 $11,832.19 $11,832.19 +$565.18
(+5.0%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Apr 21, 2025 9:30am ET $352.12 34 $11,832.19 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 24, 2025 3:55pm ET $359.61 34 $12,083.87 $12,083.87 +$251.68
(+2.1%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
6 🟢 BUY May 5, 2025 9:40am ET $360.43 34 $12,083.87 — — —
🔴 SELL May 8, 2025 3:55pm ET $364.81 34 $12,230.72 $12,230.72 +$146.85
(+1.2%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Nov 17, 2025 10:35am ET $359.60 34 $12,230.72 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 20, 2025 3:55pm ET $332.44 34 $11,307.11 $11,307.11 $-923.61
(-7.6%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
8 🟢 BUY Nov 24, 2025 9:40am ET $339.37 33 $11,307.11 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 28, 2025 1:00pm ET $356.92 33 $11,891.84 $11,891.84 +$584.73
(+5.2%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
9 🟢 BUY Feb 23, 2026 9:45am ET $376.18 32 $11,891.84 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 26, 2026 3:55pm ET $375.48 32 $11,869.71 $11,869.71 $-22.13
(-0.2%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
10 🟢 BUY Mar 2, 2026 9:30am ET $374.97 32 $11,869.71 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 5, 2026 3:55pm ET $362.98 32 $11,490.32 $11,490.32 $-379.39
(-3.2%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
11 🟢 BUY Mar 9, 2026 9:35am ET $350.36 33 $11,490.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 12, 2026 3:55pm ET $339.77 33 $11,143.12 $11,143.12 $-347.20
(-3.0%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
12 🟢 BUY Apr 13, 2026 9:35am ET $332.94 33 $11,143.12 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 16, 2026 3:55pm ET $336.92 33 $11,276.33 $11,276.33 +$133.21
(+1.2%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
13 🟢 BUY Apr 27, 2026 10:35am ET $333.51 34 $11,276.33 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 30, 2026 3:55pm ET $329.56 34 $11,142.78 $11,142.78 $-133.55
(-1.2%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
14 🟢 BUY Jun 15, 2026 10:30am ET $332.76 33 $11,142.78 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 18, 2026 3:55pm ET $334.32 33 $11,195.02 $11,195.02 +$52.24
(+0.5%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
15 🟢 BUY Jul 20, 2026 9:50am ET $334.80 33 $11,195.02 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 23, 2026 3:55pm ET $324.67 33 $10,856.46 $10,856.46 $-338.56
(-3.0%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $10,856.46
Net Profit/Loss: +$856.46
Total Return: +8.56%
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