Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 20:34:31

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
39 neutral
20d Trend
-6.5%
5d Trend
-4.3%
EMA20 Dist
-3.4%
ATR%
2.4%
Range Pos
56%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
5/5

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

27
Lifetime
Confidence: 56%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
11.5/35
Total Return
10.3/25
Win Rate
11.8/15
Profit Factor
7.2/15
Consistency
7.8/10
Raw Quality 48.6/100
× Confidence 0.56 = 27.2

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (56%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
44,952
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-09-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
522 days
Data Gaps
None (21 market holidays)

Market Closed (21 days)

2024-11-28 — Thanksgiving, 2024-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2025-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2025-01-09 — National Day of Mourning (Carter), 2025-01-20 — MLK Jr. Day, 2025-02-17 — Presidents' Day, 2025-04-18 — Good Friday, 2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed) ... and 1 more
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary

Starting Capital
$10,338.69
Current Value
$11,647.13
Total P&L
$1,308.44
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.47

Trade Statistics

Total Trades
12
Winners / Losers
8 / 4
Best Trade
+4.67%
Worst Trade
-2.90%
Avg Trade Return
+1.02%
Avg Hold Time
1.3d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$260,603.86
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$1,308.44
Net P&L (after fees)
$1,308.44
Gross Return
+12.66%
Net Return (after fees)
+12.66%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 MS Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 522 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Complete Trade History

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Macro Monday had $10,338.69 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Feb 3, 2025 9:30am ET $135.56 76 $10,338.69 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 4, 2025 3:55pm ET $136.75 76 $10,429.45 $10,429.45 +$90.76
(+0.9%)
TIME_EXIT
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Feb 24, 2025 10:00am ET $130.12 80 $10,429.45 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 25, 2025 3:55pm ET $129.63 80 $10,390.18 $10,390.18 $-39.27
(-0.4%)
TIME_EXIT
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Mar 10, 2025 9:30am ET $115.39 90 $10,390.18 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 11, 2025 3:55pm ET $112.04 90 $10,088.53 $10,088.53 $-301.65
(-2.9%)
TIME_EXIT
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Mar 31, 2025 9:30am ET $113.42 89 $10,088.53 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 1, 2025 3:55pm ET $115.70 89 $10,291.79 $10,291.79 +$203.26
(+2.0%)
TIME_EXIT
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Apr 7, 2025 9:30am ET $95.83 107 $10,291.79 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2025 3:55pm ET $100.31 107 $10,772.93 $10,772.93 +$481.14
(+4.7%)
TIME_EXIT
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Apr 21, 2025 9:30am ET $107.87 100 $10,772.93 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 22, 2025 3:55pm ET $110.37 100 $11,023.11 $11,023.11 +$250.18
(+2.3%)
TIME_EXIT
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Feb 23, 2026 9:40am ET $172.53 64 $11,023.11 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 24, 2026 3:55pm ET $168.77 64 $10,782.88 $10,782.88 $-240.23
(-2.2%)
TIME_EXIT
0m held
8 🟢 BUY Mar 2, 2026 9:30am ET $163.33 66 $10,782.88 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 3, 2026 3:55pm ET $165.98 66 $10,957.83 $10,957.83 +$174.95
(+1.6%)
TIME_EXIT
0m held
9 🟢 BUY Mar 9, 2026 9:30am ET $157.97 69 $10,957.83 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 10, 2026 3:55pm ET $160.85 69 $11,157.26 $11,157.26 +$199.43
(+1.8%)
TIME_EXIT
0m held
10 🟢 BUY Apr 13, 2026 9:30am ET $175.70 64 $11,157.26 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 14, 2026 3:55pm ET $183.02 64 $11,622.11 $11,622.11 +$464.85
(+4.2%)
TIME_EXIT
0m held
11 🟢 BUY Jul 20, 2026 10:30am ET $213.26 54 $11,622.11 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 21, 2026 3:55pm ET $216.40 54 $11,792.95 $11,792.95 +$170.84
(+1.5%)
TIME_EXIT
0m held
12 🟢 BUY Jul 27, 2026 10:30am ET $214.31 55 $11,792.95 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 28, 2026 3:55pm ET $211.66 55 $11,647.13 $11,647.13 $-145.82
(-1.2%)
TIME_EXIT
0m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $11,647.13
Net Profit/Loss: +$1,647.13
Total Return: +16.47%
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