Compendium › Macro Monday › MSFT
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
MSFT
Alpaca Tradeable

Macro Monday's Analysis

to 2026-09-24 19:55:00+00 • 15 trades executed

+34.92%
2 Years Return
$14,467.84
Current Value
69%
Win Rate
$10,723.24
Period Start
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PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 22:46:08

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
22.7 oversold
20d Trend
-16.1%
5d Trend
-8.1%
EMA20 Dist
-9.8%
ATR%
3.8%
Range Pos
2%
Bounce Ratio
0.3×
Green/Red 10d
2/8

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

43
Lifetime
Confidence: 55%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
31.3/35
Total Return
13.8/25
Win Rate
12.5/15
Profit Factor
15.0/15
Consistency
6.7/10
Raw Quality 79.2/100
× Confidence 0.55 = 43.3

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (55%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
70,072
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-09-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
536 days
Data Gaps
None (21 market holidays)

Market Closed (21 days)

2024-11-28 — Thanksgiving, 2024-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2025-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2025-01-09 — National Day of Mourning (Carter), 2025-01-20 — MLK Jr. Day, 2025-02-17 — Presidents' Day, 2025-04-18 — Good Friday, 2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed) ... and 1 more
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary

Starting Capital
$10,723.24
Current Value
$14,467.84
Total P&L
$3,744.60
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.86

Trade Statistics

Total Trades
13
Winners / Losers
9 / 4
Best Trade
+11.60%
Worst Trade
-0.57%
Avg Trade Return
+2.38%
Avg Hold Time
2.3d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$327,962.80
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$3,744.60
Net P&L (after fees)
$3,744.60
Gross Return
+34.92%
Net Return (after fees)
+34.92%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 MSFT Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 536 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Complete Trade History

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Macro Monday had $10,723.24 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Nov 4, 2024 9:30am ET $406.60 26 $10,723.24 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 6, 2024 3:55pm ET $420.21 26 $11,082.15 $11,082.15 +$358.91
(+3.3%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Jan 13, 2025 9:35am ET $416.63 27 $11,082.15 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 15, 2025 3:55pm ET $426.26 27 $11,338.30 $11,338.30 +$256.15
(+2.3%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Feb 3, 2025 9:50am ET $412.08 28 $11,338.30 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 5, 2025 3:55pm ET $413.28 28 $11,371.32 $11,371.32 +$33.02
(+0.3%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Feb 24, 2025 9:35am ET $401.95 28 $11,371.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 26, 2025 3:55pm ET $399.64 28 $11,305.99 $11,305.99 $-65.33
(-0.6%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Mar 10, 2025 9:30am ET $384.50 29 $11,305.99 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 12, 2025 3:55pm ET $383.28 29 $11,270.22 $11,270.22 $-35.77
(-0.3%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Mar 31, 2025 9:30am ET $368.69 31 $11,270.22 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 2, 2025 3:55pm ET $382.11 31 $11,680.45 $11,680.45 +$410.23
(+3.6%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Apr 7, 2025 9:30am ET $349.86 33 $11,680.45 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 9, 2025 3:55pm ET $390.43 33 $13,034.92 $13,034.92 +$1,354.47
(+11.6%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
8 🟢 BUY Apr 21, 2025 9:30am ET $364.19 36 $13,034.92 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 23, 2025 3:55pm ET $374.05 36 $13,387.82 $13,387.82 +$352.90
(+2.7%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
9 🟢 BUY Nov 24, 2025 9:45am ET $469.05 29 $13,387.82 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 26, 2025 3:55pm ET $485.49 29 $13,857.06 $13,857.06 +$469.24
(+3.5%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
10 🟢 BUY Feb 23, 2026 10:25am ET $388.43 36 $13,857.06 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 25, 2026 3:55pm ET $400.58 36 $14,290.51 $14,290.51 +$433.45
(+3.1%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
11 🟢 BUY Mar 9, 2026 9:30am ET $405.27 35 $14,290.51 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 11, 2026 3:55pm ET $404.91 35 $14,277.78 $14,277.78 $-12.73
(-0.1%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
12 🟢 BUY Apr 27, 2026 9:35am ET $417.75 34 $14,277.78 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 29, 2026 3:55pm ET $423.94 34 $14,489.34 $14,489.34 +$211.56
(+1.5%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
13 🟢 BUY Jul 20, 2026 9:50am ET $390.86 37 $14,489.34 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 22, 2026 3:55pm ET $390.28 37 $14,467.84 $14,467.84 $-21.50
(-0.1%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $14,467.84
Net Profit/Loss: +$4,467.84
Total Return: +44.68%
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