Compendium › Macro Monday › TSLA
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
TSLA
Alpaca Tradeable

Macro Monday's Analysis

to 2026-09-24 19:55:00+00 • 16 trades executed

+74.34%
2 Years Return
$16,666.02
Current Value
57%
Win Rate
$9,559.55
Period Start
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PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 18:59:58

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
4.96%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.26%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
30.3 neutral
20d Trend
-11.8%
5d Trend
-10.2%
EMA20 Dist
-9.3%
ATR%
3.6%
Range Pos
7%
Bounce Ratio
0.8×
Green/Red 10d
3/7

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

39
Lifetime
Confidence: 57%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
35.0/35
Total Return
15.2/25
Win Rate
6.1/15
Profit Factor
7.0/15
Consistency
5.5/10
Raw Quality 68.8/100
× Confidence 0.57 = 39.4

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (57%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
77,957
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-09-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
536 days
Data Gaps
None (21 market holidays)

Market Closed (21 days)

2024-11-28 — Thanksgiving, 2024-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2025-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2025-01-09 — National Day of Mourning (Carter), 2025-01-20 — MLK Jr. Day, 2025-02-17 — Presidents' Day, 2025-04-18 — Good Friday, 2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed) ... and 1 more
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary

Starting Capital
$9,559.55
Current Value
$16,666.02
Total P&L
$7,106.47
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.54

Trade Statistics

Total Trades
14
Winners / Losers
8 / 6
Best Trade
+21.22%
Worst Trade
-10.78%
Avg Trade Return
+4.43%
Avg Hold Time
2.3d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$387,648.65
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$7,106.47
Net P&L (after fees)
$7,106.47
Gross Return
+74.34%
Net Return (after fees)
+74.34%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 TSLA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 536 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Complete Trade History

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Macro Monday had $9,559.55 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Nov 4, 2024 9:30am ET $241.68 40 $9,559.55 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 6, 2024 3:55pm ET $288.47 40 $11,410.43 $11,410.43 +$1,850.88
(+19.4%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Jan 13, 2025 9:30am ET $385.76 30 $11,410.43 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 15, 2025 3:55pm ET $428.18 30 $12,665.18 $12,665.18 +$1,254.75
(+11.0%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Feb 3, 2025 9:30am ET $385.55 33 $12,665.18 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 5, 2025 3:55pm ET $378.17 33 $12,422.75 $12,422.75 $-242.43
(-1.9%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Feb 24, 2025 10:00am ET $326.04 38 $12,422.75 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 26, 2025 3:55pm ET $290.89 38 $11,083.47 $11,083.47 $-1,339.28
(-10.8%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Mar 10, 2025 9:30am ET $247.73 45 $11,083.47 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 12, 2025 3:55pm ET $248.28 45 $11,108.08 $11,108.08 +$24.61
(+0.2%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Mar 17, 2025 9:30am ET $239.64 46 $11,108.08 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 19, 2025 3:55pm ET $235.73 46 $10,926.84 $10,926.84 $-181.24
(-1.6%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Mar 31, 2025 9:30am ET $244.62 45 $10,926.84 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 2, 2025 3:55pm ET $282.67 45 $12,626.74 $12,626.74 +$1,699.90
(+15.6%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
8 🟢 BUY Apr 7, 2025 9:30am ET $224.39 56 $12,626.74 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 9, 2025 3:55pm ET $272.00 56 $15,305.82 $15,305.82 +$2,679.08
(+21.2%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
9 🟢 BUY Apr 21, 2025 9:30am ET $231.67 66 $15,305.82 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 23, 2025 3:55pm ET $250.79 66 $16,569.03 $16,569.03 +$1,263.21
(+8.3%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
10 🟢 BUY Apr 28, 2025 10:45am ET $284.22 58 $16,569.03 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 30, 2025 3:55pm ET $282.12 58 $16,446.73 $16,446.73 $-122.30
(-0.7%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
11 🟢 BUY May 5, 2025 9:30am ET $281.29 58 $16,446.73 — — —
🔴 SELL May 7, 2025 3:55pm ET $276.17 58 $16,147.66 $16,147.66 $-299.07
(-1.8%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
12 🟢 BUY Mar 9, 2026 9:30am ET $390.44 41 $16,147.66 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 11, 2026 3:55pm ET $407.21 41 $16,841.23 $16,841.23 +$693.57
(+4.3%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
13 🟢 BUY Apr 27, 2026 9:50am ET $366.52 46 $16,841.23 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 29, 2026 3:55pm ET $373.40 46 $17,157.59 $17,157.59 +$316.36
(+1.9%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
14 🟢 BUY Jul 27, 2026 10:30am ET $307.15 56 $17,157.59 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 29, 2026 3:55pm ET $298.35 56 $16,666.02 $16,666.02 $-491.57
(-2.9%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $16,666.02
Net Profit/Loss: +$6,666.02
Total Return: +66.66%
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