Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:36:26

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
41.6 neutral
20d Trend
-5.4%
5d Trend
-6.3%
EMA20 Dist
-3.9%
ATR%
3.9%
Range Pos
40%
Bounce Ratio
1.2×
Green/Red 10d
2/8

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

51
Lifetime
Confidence: 73%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
33.7/35
Total Return
14.0/25
Win Rate
7.9/15
Profit Factor
7.0/15
Consistency
7.5/10
Raw Quality 70.1/100
× Confidence 0.73 = 51.1

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (73%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
48,405
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-09-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
528 days
Data Gaps
None (21 market holidays)

Market Closed (21 days)

2024-11-28 — Thanksgiving, 2024-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2025-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2025-01-09 — National Day of Mourning (Carter), 2025-01-20 — MLK Jr. Day, 2025-02-17 — Presidents' Day, 2025-04-18 — Good Friday, 2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed) ... and 1 more
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary

Starting Capital
$12,650.51
Current Value
$14,319.09
Total P&L
$1,668.57
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.42

Trade Statistics

Total Trades
7
Winners / Losers
4 / 3
Best Trade
+7.71%
Worst Trade
-3.35%
Avg Trade Return
+1.90%
Avg Hold Time
9d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$192,496.89
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$1,668.57
Net P&L (after fees)
$1,668.57
Gross Return
+13.19%
Net Return (after fees)
+13.19%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 IBM Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 528 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Complete Trade History

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Calm Sea had $12,650.51 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Nov 13, 2024 9:30am ET $209.82 60 $12,588.90 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 21, 2024 11:20am ET $220.75 60 $13,245.00 $13,306.62 +$656.10
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Nov 27, 2024 9:50am ET $227.47 58 $13,192.97 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 9, 2024 9:30am ET $238.91 58 $13,857.01 $13,970.66 +$664.04
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Dec 10, 2024 9:30am ET $228.45 61 $13,935.45 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 18, 2024 3:40pm ET $220.81 61 $13,469.41 $13,504.62 $-466.04
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Aug 22, 2025 2:00pm ET $242.26 55 $13,324.30 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 8, 2025 2:30pm ET $254.66 55 $14,006.30 $14,186.62 +$682.00
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Dec 22, 2025 9:30am ET $300.43 47 $14,120.21 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 2, 2026 11:40am ET $291.23 47 $13,687.81 $13,754.22 $-432.40
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Sep 8, 2026 9:30am ET $231.72 59 $13,671.48 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 14, 2026 9:30am ET $249.58 59 $14,725.22 $14,807.96 +$1,053.74
(+7.7%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Sep 23, 2026 12:30pm ET $235.18 62 $14,580.85 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 24, 2026 9:45am ET $227.29 62 $14,091.98 $14,319.09 $-488.87
(-3.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $14,319.09
Net Profit/Loss: +$4,319.09
Total Return: +43.19%
Back to Marcus Calm Sea