Compendium › Marcus Calm Sea › IBM
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
IBM
Alpaca Tradeable

Marcus Calm Sea's Analysis

Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 3 trades in period

+2.46%
Year to Date Return
$14,319.09
Current Value
33%
Win Rate
$13,974.64
Period Start
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PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:18:15

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
41.6 neutral
20d Trend
-5.4%
5d Trend
-6.3%
EMA20 Dist
-3.9%
ATR%
3.9%
Range Pos
40%
Bounce Ratio
1.2×
Green/Red 10d
2/8

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

51
Lifetime
Confidence: 73%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
33.7/35
Total Return
14.0/25
Win Rate
7.9/15
Profit Factor
7.0/15
Consistency
7.5/10
Raw Quality 70.1/100
× Confidence 0.73 = 51.1

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (73%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Year to Date)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
15,449
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
189 days
Data Gaps
None (8 market holidays)

Market Closed (8 days)

2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Year to Date)

Period Start Capital
$13,974.64
Current Value
$14,319.09
Period P&L
$344.44
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.08

Trade Statistics (Year to Date)

Trades in Period
3
Winners / Losers
1 / 2
Best Trade
+7.71%
Worst Trade
-3.35%
Avg Trade Return
+0.43%
Avg Hold Time
6d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$84,877.55
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$344.44
Net P&L (after fees)
$344.44
Gross Return
+2.46%
Net Return (after fees)
+2.46%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 IBM Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 189 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Year to Date - 3 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Calm Sea had $13,974.64 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Dec 22, 2025 9:30am ET $300.43 47 $14,120.21 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 2, 2026 11:40am ET $291.23 47 $13,687.81 $13,754.22 $-432.40
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Sep 8, 2026 9:30am ET $231.72 59 $13,671.48 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 14, 2026 9:30am ET $249.58 59 $14,725.22 $14,807.96 +$1,053.74
(+7.7%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Sep 23, 2026 12:30pm ET $235.18 62 $14,580.85 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 24, 2026 9:45am ET $227.29 62 $14,091.98 $14,319.09 $-488.87
(-3.4%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $14,319.09
Net Profit/Loss: +$4,319.09
Total Return: +43.19%
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