Compendium › Marcus Calm Sea › SPY
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
SPY
Alpaca Tradeable

Marcus Calm Sea's Analysis

to 2026-05-05 19:55:00+00 • 8 trades executed

+5.70%
2 Years Return
$11,325.45
Current Value
60%
Win Rate
$10,714.26
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
Signals generated 2026-05-06 05:42:01

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
37.4 neutral
20d Trend
-2.6%
5d Trend
-2.0%
EMA20 Dist
-1.7%
ATR%
1.1%
Range Pos
54%
Bounce Ratio
0.7×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored Mar 6, 2026

67
Lifetime
Confidence: 0%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
84.0/35
Total Return
45.6/25
Win Rate
90.5/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
92.1/10
Raw Quality 0.0/100
× Confidence 0.00 = 67.4

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (0%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
87,334
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-05-06 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
536 days
Data Gaps
None (21 market holidays)

Market Closed (21 days)

2024-05-27 — Memorial Day, 2024-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2024-07-04 — Independence Day, 2024-09-02 — Labor Day, 2024-11-28 — Thanksgiving, 2024-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2025-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2025-01-09 — National Day of Mourning (Carter), 2025-01-20 — MLK Jr. Day, 2025-02-17 — Presidents' Day, 2025-04-18 — Good Friday, 2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day ... and 1 more
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary

Starting Capital
$10,714.26
Current Value
$11,325.45
Total P&L
$611.19
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.44

Trade Statistics

Total Trades
5
Winners / Losers
3 / 2
Best Trade
+5.01%
Worst Trade
-3.08%
Avg Trade Return
+1.28%
Avg Hold Time
27.8d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$108,722.53
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$611.19
Net P&L (after fees)
$611.19
Gross Return
+5.70%
Net Return (after fees)
+5.70%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 SPY Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 536 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Complete Trade History

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Calm Sea had $10,714.26 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY May 3, 2024 11:00am ET $509.11 20 $10,182.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 3, 2024 9:30am ET $528.75 20 $10,575.00 $11,050.86 +$392.80
(+3.9%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Jun 4, 2024 11:50am ET $525.67 21 $11,039.07 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 5, 2024 9:30am ET $551.98 21 $11,591.58 $11,603.37 +$552.51
(+5.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Jul 8, 2024 10:40am ET $555.12 20 $11,102.30 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 25, 2024 10:05am ET $537.99 20 $10,759.80 $11,260.87 $-342.50
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Nov 13, 2024 2:35pm ET $597.44 18 $10,753.92 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 13, 2024 2:35pm ET $604.45 18 $10,880.10 $11,387.05 +$126.18
(+1.2%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Dec 22, 2025 2:00pm ET $684.38 16 $10,950.08 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 21, 2026 2:00pm ET $680.53 16 $10,888.48 $11,325.45 $-61.60
(-0.6%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
0m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $11,325.45
Net Profit/Loss: +$1,325.45
Total Return: +13.25%
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