Compendium › Marcus Credit Crisis › MSFT
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
MSFT
Alpaca Tradeable

Marcus Credit Crisis's Analysis

Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 3 trades in period

-0.53%
Year to Date Return
$16,036.19
Current Value
33%
Win Rate
$16,121.72
Period Start
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PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 20:33:29

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
22.7 oversold
20d Trend
-16.1%
5d Trend
-8.1%
EMA20 Dist
-9.8%
ATR%
3.8%
Range Pos
2%
Bounce Ratio
0.3×
Green/Red 10d
2/8

Strategy Score Scored Jul 8, 2026

36
Lifetime
Confidence: 50%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
35.0/35
Total Return
14.9/25
Win Rate
8.9/15
Profit Factor
7.0/15
Consistency
7.1/10
Raw Quality 72.9/100
× Confidence 0.50 = 36.2

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (50%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Year to Date)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
17,059
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
189 days
Data Gaps
None (8 market holidays)

Market Closed (8 days)

2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Year to Date)

Period Start Capital
$16,121.72
Current Value
$16,036.19
Period P&L
$-85.53
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.02

Trade Statistics (Year to Date)

Trades in Period
3
Winners / Losers
1 / 2
Best Trade
+5.92%
Worst Trade
-3.14%
Avg Trade Return
-0.09%
Avg Hold Time
4d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$92,284.79
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-85.53
Net P&L (after fees)
$-85.53
Gross Return
-0.53%
Net Return (after fees)
-0.53%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 MSFT Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 189 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Year to Date - 3 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Credit Crisis had $16,121.72 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Mar 17, 2026 10:55am ET $399.80 40 $15,992.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 19, 2026 1:10pm ET $387.62 40 $15,504.94 $15,634.66 $-487.06
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Mar 23, 2026 11:55am ET $382.57 40 $15,302.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 25, 2026 11:15am ET $370.56 40 $14,822.40 $15,154.46 $-480.20
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Mar 31, 2026 10:55am ET $363.18 41 $14,890.56 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET $384.69 41 $15,772.29 $16,036.19 +$881.73
(+5.9%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $16,036.19
Net Profit/Loss: +$6,036.19
Total Return: +60.36%
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