Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 22:33:03

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
37.5 neutral
20d Trend
-7.1%
5d Trend
-7.2%
EMA20 Dist
-4.1%
ATR%
3.0%
Range Pos
19%
Bounce Ratio
0.5×
Green/Red 10d
5/5

Strategy Score Scored Jul 9, 2026

16
Lifetime
Confidence: 51%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
12.2/35
Total Return
10.5/25
Win Rate
0.9/15
Profit Factor
1.5/15
Consistency
5.4/10
Raw Quality 30.4/100
× Confidence 0.51 = 15.6

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (51%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
53,598
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-09-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
536 days
Data Gaps
None (21 market holidays)

Market Closed (21 days)

2024-11-28 — Thanksgiving, 2024-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2025-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2025-01-09 — National Day of Mourning (Carter), 2025-01-20 — MLK Jr. Day, 2025-02-17 — Presidents' Day, 2025-04-18 — Good Friday, 2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed) ... and 1 more
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary

Starting Capital
$10,259.55
Current Value
$11,735.15
Total P&L
$1,475.58
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.27

Trade Statistics

Total Trades
12
Winners / Losers
6 / 6
Best Trade
+12.02%
Worst Trade
-5.19%
Avg Trade Return
+1.38%
Avg Hold Time
7.7d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$244,080.00
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$1,475.58
Net P&L (after fees)
$1,475.58
Gross Return
+14.38%
Net Return (after fees)
+14.38%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 DIS Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 536 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Complete Trade History

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Credit Crisis had $10,259.55 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Sep 16, 2024 11:55am ET $91.73 110 $10,090.30 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 27, 2024 11:00am ET $96.32 110 $10,595.20 $10,624.77 +$504.90
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Mar 13, 2025 9:30am ET $98.35 108 $10,621.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 3, 2025 9:30am ET $93.24 108 $10,070.08 $10,073.05 $-551.72
(-5.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Apr 4, 2025 9:30am ET $85.89 117 $10,049.13 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 4, 2025 3:00pm ET $83.28 117 $9,743.76 $9,767.68 $-305.37
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Apr 8, 2025 10:50am ET $85.58 114 $9,756.12 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2025 2:05pm ET $82.96 114 $9,457.44 $9,469.00 $-298.68
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Apr 10, 2025 9:50am ET $87.07 108 $9,403.56 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 10, 2025 12:00pm ET $84.30 108 $9,104.40 $9,169.84 $-299.16
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Apr 14, 2025 11:35am ET $84.82 108 $9,160.56 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 16, 2025 1:55pm ET $82.20 108 $8,877.82 $8,887.10 $-282.74
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Apr 17, 2025 3:10pm ET $84.89 104 $8,828.56 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 23, 2025 9:40am ET $89.18 104 $9,274.20 $9,332.74 +$445.64
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
8 🟢 BUY Apr 24, 2025 2:05pm ET $89.70 104 $9,328.80 — — —
🔴 SELL May 7, 2025 9:30am ET $100.48 104 $10,449.92 $10,453.86 +$1,121.12
(+12.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
9 🟢 BUY May 8, 2025 3:50pm ET $105.18 99 $10,412.82 — — —
🔴 SELL May 12, 2025 11:30am ET $110.51 99 $10,940.00 $10,981.03 +$527.17
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
10 🟢 BUY May 21, 2025 9:45am ET $111.46 98 $10,923.08 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 10, 2025 10:40am ET $117.18 98 $11,483.64 $11,541.59 +$560.56
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
11 🟢 BUY Mar 17, 2026 2:45pm ET $100.17 115 $11,519.55 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 24, 2026 10:50am ET $96.99 115 $11,153.85 $11,175.89 $-365.70
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
12 🟢 BUY Mar 31, 2026 10:45am ET $94.39 118 $11,138.08 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 9, 2026 1:05pm ET $99.13 118 $11,697.34 $11,735.15 +$559.26
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $11,735.15
Net Profit/Loss: +$1,735.15
Total Return: +17.35%
Back to Marcus Credit Crisis