Compendium › Marcus Credit Crisis › ISRG
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
ISRG
Alpaca Tradeable

Marcus Credit Crisis's Analysis

to 2026-09-24 19:55:00+00 • 31 trades executed

-3.95%
2 Years Return
$11,507.81
Current Value
38%
Win Rate
$11,981.00
Period Start
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PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 23:20:13

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
24.1 oversold
20d Trend
-14.4%
5d Trend
-4.7%
EMA20 Dist
-6.4%
ATR%
3.0%
Range Pos
29%
Bounce Ratio
0.0×
Green/Red 10d
1/9

Strategy Score Scored Jul 17, 2026

15
Lifetime
Confidence: 53%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
10.6/35
Total Return
10.0/25
Win Rate
1.9/15
Profit Factor
1.1/15
Consistency
5.3/10
Raw Quality 28.9/100
× Confidence 0.53 = 15.5

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (53%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
42,993
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-09-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
516 days
Data Gaps
None (21 market holidays)

Market Closed (21 days)

2024-11-28 — Thanksgiving, 2024-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2025-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2025-01-09 — National Day of Mourning (Carter), 2025-01-20 — MLK Jr. Day, 2025-02-17 — Presidents' Day, 2025-04-18 — Good Friday, 2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed) ... and 1 more
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary

Starting Capital
$11,981.00
Current Value
$11,507.81
Total P&L
$-473.19
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.03

Trade Statistics

Total Trades
16
Winners / Losers
6 / 10
Best Trade
+7.63%
Worst Trade
-8.20%
Avg Trade Return
-0.16%
Avg Hold Time
6d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$362,561.78
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-473.19
Net P&L (after fees)
$-473.19
Gross Return
-3.95%
Net Return (after fees)
-3.95%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 ISRG Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 516 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Complete Trade History

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Credit Crisis had $11,981.00 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Sep 13, 2024 2:25pm ET $493.16 24 $11,835.84 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 4, 2024 10:20am ET $478.11 24 $11,474.64 $11,654.12 $-361.20
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Mar 13, 2025 9:40am ET $494.17 23 $11,365.91 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 13, 2025 11:35am ET $478.63 23 $11,008.49 $11,296.70 $-357.42
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Mar 14, 2025 12:20pm ET $485.89 23 $11,175.47 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 24, 2025 3:50pm ET $510.56 23 $11,742.88 $11,864.11 +$567.41
(+5.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Mar 27, 2025 11:45am ET $508.61 23 $11,698.03 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 28, 2025 10:25am ET $492.65 23 $11,330.95 $11,497.03 $-367.08
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Apr 1, 2025 10:10am ET $487.33 23 $11,208.59 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 4, 2025 9:30am ET $469.47 23 $10,797.81 $11,086.25 $-410.78
(-3.7%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Apr 7, 2025 9:30am ET $435.57 25 $10,889.25 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 7, 2025 10:10am ET $468.81 25 $11,720.25 $11,917.25 +$831.00
(+7.6%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Apr 8, 2025 11:20am ET $477.52 24 $11,460.36 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2025 2:25pm ET $462.93 24 $11,110.32 $11,567.21 $-350.04
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
8 🟢 BUY Apr 10, 2025 9:50am ET $497.76 23 $11,448.48 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 10, 2025 12:00pm ET $479.59 23 $11,030.57 $11,149.30 $-417.91
(-3.7%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
9 🟢 BUY Apr 14, 2025 11:55am ET $490.70 22 $10,795.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 21, 2025 9:30am ET $474.11 22 $10,430.42 $10,784.32 $-364.98
(-3.4%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
10 🟢 BUY Apr 22, 2025 1:25pm ET $475.41 22 $10,459.10 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 23, 2025 9:30am ET $509.78 22 $11,215.16 $11,540.38 +$756.06
(+7.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
11 🟢 BUY Apr 24, 2025 3:50pm ET $508.85 22 $11,194.59 — — —
🔴 SELL May 2, 2025 9:40am ET $534.95 22 $11,768.90 $12,114.69 +$574.31
(+5.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
12 🟢 BUY May 5, 2025 3:45pm ET $533.75 22 $11,742.50 — — —
🔴 SELL May 12, 2025 9:50am ET $560.78 22 $12,337.16 $12,709.35 +$594.66
(+5.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
13 🟢 BUY May 21, 2025 1:05pm ET $554.53 22 $12,199.66 — — —
🔴 SELL May 23, 2025 9:30am ET $537.11 22 $11,816.42 $12,326.11 $-383.24
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
14 🟢 BUY May 27, 2025 11:40am ET $549.45 22 $12,087.90 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 9, 2025 9:30am ET $504.40 22 $11,096.80 $11,335.01 $-991.10
(-8.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
15 🟢 BUY Mar 17, 2026 2:10pm ET $485.16 23 $11,158.68 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 24, 2026 9:40am ET $468.95 23 $10,785.96 $10,962.29 $-372.72
(-3.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
16 🟢 BUY Mar 31, 2026 10:45am ET $450.62 24 $10,814.88 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 17, 2026 12:00pm ET $473.35 24 $11,360.40 $11,507.81 +$545.52
(+5.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $11,507.81
Net Profit/Loss: +$1,507.81
Total Return: +15.08%
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