Compendium › Marcus Credit Crisis › XLK
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
XLK
Alpaca Tradeable

Marcus Credit Crisis's Analysis

to 2026-09-24 19:55:00+00 • 30 trades executed

-6.24%
2 Years Return
$9,123.11
Current Value
38%
Win Rate
$9,730.34
Period Start
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PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 19:14:37

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
4.96%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.26%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
30.1 neutral
20d Trend
-8.0%
5d Trend
-6.2%
EMA20 Dist
-5.6%
ATR%
2.5%
Range Pos
2%
Bounce Ratio
0.7×
Green/Red 10d
4/6

Strategy Score Scored Jul 8, 2026

3
Lifetime
Confidence: 53%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
5.0/10
Raw Quality 5.0/100
× Confidence 0.53 = 2.7

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (53%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
53,708
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-09-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
526 days
Data Gaps
None (21 market holidays)

Market Closed (21 days)

2024-11-28 — Thanksgiving, 2024-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2025-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2025-01-09 — National Day of Mourning (Carter), 2025-01-20 — MLK Jr. Day, 2025-02-17 — Presidents' Day, 2025-04-18 — Good Friday, 2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed) ... and 1 more
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary

Starting Capital
$9,730.34
Current Value
$9,123.11
Total P&L
$-607.22
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.05

Trade Statistics

Total Trades
16
Winners / Losers
6 / 10
Best Trade
+5.85%
Worst Trade
-6.41%
Avg Trade Return
-0.22%
Avg Hold Time
6.6d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$280,574.75
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-607.22
Net P&L (after fees)
$-607.22
Gross Return
-6.24%
Net Return (after fees)
-6.24%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 XLK Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 526 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Complete Trade History

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Credit Crisis had $9,730.34 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Sep 13, 2024 2:35pm ET $110.08 87 $9,576.96 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 14, 2024 9:30am ET $116.51 87 $10,136.37 $10,157.07 +$559.41
(+5.8%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Mar 13, 2025 9:30am ET $105.44 96 $10,122.24 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 31, 2025 9:30am ET $100.71 96 $9,667.68 $9,702.51 $-454.56
(-4.5%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Apr 1, 2025 2:05pm ET $102.78 94 $9,661.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 3, 2025 9:40am ET $99.67 94 $9,368.51 $9,409.70 $-292.81
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Apr 4, 2025 9:40am ET $93.65 100 $9,364.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 7, 2025 9:30am ET $87.64 100 $8,764.00 $8,809.20 $-600.50
(-6.4%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Apr 8, 2025 11:10am ET $94.59 93 $8,796.87 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2025 1:25pm ET $91.36 93 $8,496.02 $8,508.34 $-300.86
(-3.4%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Apr 10, 2025 10:00am ET $97.80 87 $8,508.33 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 10, 2025 12:20pm ET $94.72 87 $8,240.64 $8,240.65 $-267.69
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Apr 14, 2025 11:25am ET $100.19 82 $8,215.17 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 16, 2025 1:40pm ET $97.05 82 $7,957.69 $7,983.17 $-257.48
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
8 🟢 BUY Apr 17, 2025 3:10pm ET $96.53 82 $7,915.26 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 21, 2025 10:45am ET $93.62 82 $7,676.43 $7,744.35 $-238.83
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
9 🟢 BUY Apr 22, 2025 1:20pm ET $95.57 81 $7,741.17 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 23, 2025 9:40am ET $100.53 81 $8,142.93 $8,146.11 +$401.76
(+5.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
10 🟢 BUY Apr 28, 2025 11:15am ET $103.27 78 $8,055.06 — — —
🔴 SELL May 2, 2025 12:00pm ET $108.73 78 $8,480.94 $8,571.99 +$425.88
(+5.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
11 🟢 BUY May 5, 2025 3:20pm ET $108.05 79 $8,535.95 — — —
🔴 SELL May 12, 2025 1:00pm ET $113.48 79 $8,964.92 $9,000.96 +$428.97
(+5.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
12 🟢 BUY May 21, 2025 1:10pm ET $116.66 77 $8,982.82 — — —
🔴 SELL May 23, 2025 9:30am ET $113.16 77 $8,713.32 $8,731.46 $-269.50
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
13 🟢 BUY May 27, 2025 3:10pm ET $115.96 75 $8,697.19 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 16, 2025 11:05am ET $121.77 75 $9,132.38 $9,166.64 +$435.19
(+5.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
14 🟢 BUY Mar 17, 2026 11:40am ET $139.23 65 $9,049.95 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 20, 2026 2:50pm ET $134.97 65 $8,773.05 $8,889.74 $-276.90
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
15 🟢 BUY Mar 23, 2026 3:55pm ET $137.20 64 $8,780.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 26, 2026 1:55pm ET $133.06 64 $8,515.84 $8,624.78 $-264.96
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
16 🟢 BUY Apr 1, 2026 2:00pm ET $135.26 63 $8,521.07 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET $143.16 63 $9,019.39 $9,123.11 +$498.33
(+5.8%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $9,123.11
Net Profit/Loss: $-876.89
Total Return: -8.77%
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