Compendium › Marcus Grave Dancer › MARA
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
MARA
Alpaca Tradeable

Marcus Grave Dancer's Analysis

Last Month: 2026-05-26 to present • 4 trades in period

+4.48%
Last Month Return
$9,528.43
Current Value
50%
Win Rate
$9,120.13
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 2: FEAR TRANSITION
⚡ Fear Bear (strategies thrive)
Signals generated 2026-06-26 08:26:06

Fear building. Reversal strategies are becoming viable. Watch for bounce signals.

Fear & Greed
13
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.6
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.50%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.76
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
⛈️ 3.6
Severe
⛈️ 1 storm day in 7d
RSI(14)
20.9 oversold
20d Trend
-40.9%
5d Trend
-30.4%
EMA20 Dist
-28.9%
ATR%
10.8%
Range Pos
1%
Bounce Ratio
0.2×
Green/Red 10d
2/8
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored Jun 26, 2026

3
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
3.0/10
Raw Quality 3.0/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 3.0

30-Day Momentum

17
+4.5%
30d Return
50%
Win Rate
4
Trades
1.3×
Profit Factor
Quality: 25.7 Conf: 0.66×
Accelerating (+14 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,716
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-05-26 → 2026-06-25
Trading Days
22 days
Data Gaps
None (1 market holiday)

Market Closed (1 day)

2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$9,120.13
Current Value
$9,528.43
Period P&L
$408.33
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.28

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
4
Winners / Losers
2 / 2
Best Trade
+5.64%
Worst Trade
-3.11%
Avg Trade Return
+1.19%
Avg Hold Time
13.2h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$74,442.71
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$408.33
Net P&L (after fees)
$408.33
Gross Return
+4.48%
Net Return (after fees)
+4.48%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 MARA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 22 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 4 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Grave Dancer had $9,120.13 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY May 28, 2026 9:35am ET $13.77 662 $9,119.05 — — —
🔴 SELL May 29, 2026 1:35pm ET $14.50 662 $9,599.00 $9,600.05 +$479.95
(+5.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Jun 4, 2026 9:40am ET $13.38 717 $9,593.46 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 5, 2026 9:35am ET $12.98 717 $9,303.08 $9,309.67 $-290.38
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Jun 9, 2026 11:25am ET $13.34 697 $9,297.98 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 9, 2026 12:05pm ET $12.93 697 $9,008.73 $9,020.42 $-289.25
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Jun 23, 2026 9:30am ET $14.10 639 $9,006.71 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 23, 2026 9:45am ET $14.89 639 $9,514.71 $9,528.43 +$508.01
(+5.6%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $9,528.43
Net Profit/Loss: $-471.57
Total Return: -4.72%
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