Compendium › Marcus Grave Dancer › MARA
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
MARA
Alpaca Tradeable

Marcus Grave Dancer's Analysis

Last 3 Months: 2026-06-25 to present • 15 trades in period

+2.58%
Last 3 Months Return
$10,113.24
Current Value
47%
Win Rate
$9,859.34
Period Start
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PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:05:53

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
20.9 oversold
20d Trend
-40.9%
5d Trend
-30.4%
EMA20 Dist
-28.9%
ATR%
10.8%
Range Pos
1%
Bounce Ratio
0.2×
Green/Red 10d
2/8

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

7
Lifetime
Confidence: 96%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.8/35
Total Return
2.7/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
3.3/10
Raw Quality 6.9/100
× Confidence 0.96 = 6.6

30-Day Momentum

15
+3.6%
30d Return
50%
Win Rate
4
Trades
1.2×
Profit Factor
Quality: 22.1 Conf: 0.66×
Steady (+8 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (96%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,992
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
64 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$9,859.34
Current Value
$10,113.24
Period P&L
$253.95
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.11

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
15
Winners / Losers
7 / 8
Best Trade
+5.89%
Worst Trade
-4.48%
Avg Trade Return
+0.51%
Avg Hold Time
1.4d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$290,562.30
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$253.95
Net P&L (after fees)
$253.95
Gross Return
+2.58%
Net Return (after fees)
+2.58%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 MARA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 64 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 15 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Grave Dancer had $9,859.34 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jun 24, 2026 1:45pm ET $13.53 704 $9,525.12 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 26, 2026 10:10am ET $14.24 704 $10,024.96 $10,028.27 +$499.84
(+5.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Jun 29, 2026 10:10am ET $13.33 752 $10,021.45 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 29, 2026 11:35am ET $14.09 752 $10,591.92 $10,598.74 +$570.47
(+5.7%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Jul 2, 2026 10:50am ET $13.13 807 $10,591.88 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 2, 2026 11:15am ET $12.59 807 $10,160.13 $10,166.99 $-431.74
(-4.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Jul 7, 2026 9:55am ET $12.38 821 $10,163.98 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 7, 2026 10:25am ET $11.88 821 $9,753.56 $9,756.57 $-410.42
(-4.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Jul 10, 2026 10:05am ET $12.68 769 $9,747.08 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 13, 2026 9:40am ET $12.24 769 $9,412.48 $9,421.98 $-334.59
(-3.4%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Jul 17, 2026 9:30am ET $10.70 880 $9,416.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 20, 2026 9:30am ET $11.33 880 $9,970.40 $9,976.38 +$554.40
(+5.9%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Jul 24, 2026 9:50am ET $12.23 815 $9,967.45 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 27, 2026 10:25am ET $11.77 815 $9,596.62 $9,605.55 $-370.82
(-3.7%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
8 🟢 BUY Jul 29, 2026 10:25am ET $10.68 899 $9,601.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 29, 2026 11:50am ET $10.25 899 $9,214.84 $9,219.07 $-386.48
(-4.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
9 🟢 BUY Jul 31, 2026 10:10am ET $11.10 830 $9,217.15 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 3, 2026 10:15am ET $11.68 830 $9,694.40 $9,696.32 +$477.25
(+5.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
10 🟢 BUY Aug 6, 2026 9:30am ET $10.94 886 $9,692.84 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 7, 2026 9:35am ET $10.45 886 $9,258.70 $9,262.18 $-434.14
(-4.5%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
11 🟢 BUY Aug 21, 2026 10:45am ET $11.13 832 $9,256.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 24, 2026 10:20am ET $11.72 832 $9,750.96 $9,757.14 +$494.96
(+5.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
12 🟢 BUY Aug 26, 2026 9:35am ET $11.49 848 $9,747.76 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 26, 2026 11:55am ET $11.13 848 $9,434.00 $9,443.38 $-313.76
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
13 🟢 BUY Aug 28, 2026 9:30am ET $11.58 815 $9,437.70 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 28, 2026 10:05am ET $11.10 815 $9,050.57 $9,056.25 $-387.13
(-4.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
14 🟢 BUY Sep 1, 2026 9:35am ET $10.23 885 $9,052.22 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 3, 2026 9:45am ET $10.80 885 $9,558.00 $9,562.03 +$505.78
(+5.6%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
15 🟢 BUY Sep 10, 2026 9:40am ET $11.37 840 $9,550.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 11, 2026 9:55am ET $12.03 840 $10,102.01 $10,113.24 +$551.21
(+5.8%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $10,113.24
Net Profit/Loss: +$113.24
Total Return: +1.13%
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