Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 2: FEAR TRANSITION
⚡ Fear Bear (strategies thrive)
Signals generated 2026-06-26 08:25:59

Fear building. Reversal strategies are becoming viable. Watch for bounce signals.

Fear & Greed
13
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.6
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.50%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.76
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
⛈️ 3.6
Severe
⛈️ 1 storm day in 7d
RSI(14)
20.9 oversold
20d Trend
-40.9%
5d Trend
-30.4%
EMA20 Dist
-28.9%
ATR%
10.8%
Range Pos
1%
Bounce Ratio
0.2×
Green/Red 10d
2/8
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored Jun 26, 2026

3
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
3.0/10
Raw Quality 3.0/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 3.0

30-Day Momentum

17
+4.5%
30d Return
50%
Win Rate
4
Trades
1.3×
Profit Factor
Quality: 25.7 Conf: 0.66×
Accelerating (+14 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,914
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-26 → 2026-06-25
Trading Days
63 days
Data Gaps
None (3 market holidays)

Market Closed (3 days)

2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$10,246.63
Current Value
$9,528.43
Period P&L
$-718.17
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.16

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
10
Winners / Losers
3 / 7
Best Trade
+5.97%
Worst Trade
-3.65%
Avg Trade Return
-0.64%
Avg Hold Time
15.3h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$193,480.73
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-718.17
Net P&L (after fees)
$-718.17
Gross Return
-7.01%
Net Return (after fees)
-7.01%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 MARA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 63 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 10 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Grave Dancer had $10,246.63 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Mar 27, 2026 9:50am ET $8.19 1,250 $10,243.75
🔴 SELL Mar 27, 2026 10:20am ET $7.92 1,250 $9,900.00 $9,902.85 $-343.75
(-3.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET $7.79 1,271 $9,901.09
🔴 SELL Apr 2, 2026 10:45am ET $8.26 1,271 $10,492.11 $10,493.87 +$591.02
(+6.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Apr 7, 2026 9:35am ET $8.59 1,222 $10,490.87
🔴 SELL Apr 7, 2026 10:45am ET $8.32 1,222 $10,173.15 $10,176.15 $-317.72
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Apr 28, 2026 9:30am ET $10.77 944 $10,166.88
🔴 SELL Apr 29, 2026 10:05am ET $10.39 944 $9,808.07 $9,817.34 $-358.81
(-3.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
5 🟢 BUY May 12, 2026 9:30am ET $12.83 765 $9,814.95
🔴 SELL May 12, 2026 10:25am ET $12.37 765 $9,463.05 $9,465.44 $-351.90
(-3.6%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
6 🟢 BUY May 15, 2026 9:35am ET $12.47 759 $9,464.73
🔴 SELL May 18, 2026 9:30am ET $12.02 759 $9,119.39 $9,120.10 $-345.34
(-3.6%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
7 🟢 BUY May 28, 2026 9:35am ET $13.77 662 $9,119.05
🔴 SELL May 29, 2026 1:35pm ET $14.50 662 $9,599.00 $9,600.05 +$479.95
(+5.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
8 🟢 BUY Jun 4, 2026 9:40am ET $13.38 717 $9,593.46
🔴 SELL Jun 5, 2026 9:35am ET $12.98 717 $9,303.08 $9,309.67 $-290.38
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
9 🟢 BUY Jun 9, 2026 11:25am ET $13.34 697 $9,297.98
🔴 SELL Jun 9, 2026 12:05pm ET $12.93 697 $9,008.73 $9,020.42 $-289.25
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
10 🟢 BUY Jun 23, 2026 9:30am ET $14.10 639 $9,006.71
🔴 SELL Jun 23, 2026 9:45am ET $14.89 639 $9,514.71 $9,528.43 +$508.01
(+5.6%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $9,528.43
Net Profit/Loss: $-471.57
Total Return: -4.72%
Back to Marcus Grave Dancer