MARA Marcus Grave Dancer's Analysis
Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 38 trades in period
+5.57%
Year to Date Return
$10,113.24
Current Value
42%
Win Rate
$9,579.69
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
20.9 oversold
20d Trend
-40.9%
5d Trend
-30.4%
EMA20 Dist
-28.9%
ATR%
10.8%
Range Pos
1%
Bounce Ratio
0.2×
Green/Red 10d
2/8
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
7
Lifetime
Confidence: 96%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.8/35
Total Return
2.7/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
3.3/10
Raw Quality
6.9/100
× Confidence 0.96
= 6.6
30-Day Momentum
15
+3.6%
30d Return
50%
Win Rate
4
Trades
1.2×
Profit Factor
Quality: 22.1
Conf: 0.66×
Steady (+8 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (96%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Year to Date)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
17,015
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
189 days
Data Gaps
None (8 market holidays)
Market Closed (8 days)
2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Year to Date)
Period Start Capital
$9,579.69
Current Value
$10,113.24
Period P&L
$533.60
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.05
Trade Statistics (Year to Date)
Trades in Period
38
Winners / Losers
16 /
22
Best Trade
+6.01%
Worst Trade
-4.75%
Avg Trade Return
+0.24%
Avg Hold Time
20.5h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$740,572.33
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$533.60
Net P&L (after fees)
$533.60
Gross Return
+5.57%
Net Return (after fees)
+5.57%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 MARA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 189 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Year to Date - 38 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Grave Dancer had $9,579.69 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $10.40 | 921 | $9,573.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 12:15pm ET | $10.95 | 921 | $10,084.12 | $10,089.99 |
+$510.33 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $10.22 | 987 | $10,087.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 26, 2026 11:15am ET | $9.91 | 987 | $9,776.24 | $9,778.98 |
$-311.00 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 29, 2026 10:05am ET | $9.85 | 993 | $9,778.57 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 30, 2026 9:55am ET | $9.55 | 993 | $9,478.19 | $9,478.60 |
$-300.38 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2026 1:20pm ET | $8.78 | 1,079 | $9,469.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 4, 2026 9:55am ET | $8.49 | 1,079 | $9,155.85 | $9,164.61 |
$-313.99 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 9:55am ET | $7.66 | 1,195 | $9,159.67 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 10:10am ET | $7.30 | 1,195 | $8,724.70 | $8,729.63 |
$-434.98 (-4.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $7.82 | 1,115 | $8,724.87 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 10:00am ET | $8.30 | 1,115 | $9,248.93 | $9,253.68 |
+$524.05 (+6.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 11, 2026 9:30am ET | $7.46 | 1,240 | $9,250.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 11, 2026 11:05am ET | $7.87 | 1,240 | $9,758.80 | $9,762.21 |
+$508.52 (+5.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 9:45am ET | $7.54 | 1,294 | $9,756.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 19, 2026 2:55pm ET | $7.92 | 1,294 | $10,248.61 | $10,254.06 |
+$491.85 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $8.60 | 1,191 | $10,248.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 2, 2026 9:50am ET | $9.06 | 1,191 | $10,790.46 | $10,795.97 |
+$541.91 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 3, 2026 9:50am ET | $8.94 | 1,207 | $10,790.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 3, 2026 10:25am ET | $8.66 | 1,207 | $10,452.62 | $10,458.01 |
$-337.96 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 6, 2026 9:55am ET | $8.29 | 1,261 | $10,453.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 6, 2026 3:15pm ET | $7.99 | 1,261 | $10,069.09 | $10,073.28 |
$-384.73 (-3.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 19, 2026 9:30am ET | $8.64 | 1,165 | $10,065.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 19, 2026 2:10pm ET | $9.07 | 1,165 | $10,572.37 | $10,580.05 |
+$506.77 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 24, 2026 10:20am ET | $8.56 | 1,235 | $10,571.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 24, 2026 1:05pm ET | $8.29 | 1,235 | $10,238.15 | $10,246.60 |
$-333.45 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 27, 2026 9:50am ET | $8.19 | 1,250 | $10,243.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 10:20am ET | $7.92 | 1,250 | $9,900.00 | $9,902.85 |
$-343.75 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $7.79 | 1,271 | $9,901.09 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 2, 2026 10:45am ET | $8.26 | 1,271 | $10,492.11 | $10,493.87 |
+$591.02 (+6.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2026 9:35am ET | $8.59 | 1,222 | $10,490.87 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 10:45am ET | $8.32 | 1,222 | $10,173.15 | $10,176.15 |
$-317.72 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $10.77 | 944 | $10,166.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2026 10:05am ET | $10.39 | 944 | $9,808.07 | $9,817.34 |
$-358.81 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | May 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $12.83 | 765 | $9,814.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 12, 2026 10:25am ET | $12.37 | 765 | $9,463.05 | $9,465.44 |
$-351.90 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | May 15, 2026 9:35am ET | $12.47 | 759 | $9,464.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 18, 2026 9:30am ET | $12.02 | 759 | $9,119.39 | $9,120.10 |
$-345.34 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | May 28, 2026 9:35am ET | $13.77 | 662 | $9,119.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 29, 2026 1:35pm ET | $14.50 | 662 | $9,599.00 | $9,600.05 |
+$479.95 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 4, 2026 9:40am ET | $13.38 | 717 | $9,593.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 5, 2026 9:35am ET | $12.98 | 717 | $9,303.08 | $9,309.67 |
$-290.38 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 9, 2026 11:25am ET | $13.34 | 697 | $9,297.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 9, 2026 12:05pm ET | $12.93 | 697 | $9,008.73 | $9,020.42 |
$-289.25 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $14.10 | 639 | $9,006.71 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 23, 2026 9:45am ET | $14.89 | 639 | $9,514.71 | $9,528.43 |
+$508.01 (+5.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 24, 2026 1:45pm ET | $13.53 | 704 | $9,525.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 26, 2026 10:10am ET | $14.24 | 704 | $10,024.96 | $10,028.27 |
+$499.84 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 29, 2026 10:10am ET | $13.33 | 752 | $10,021.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 29, 2026 11:35am ET | $14.09 | 752 | $10,591.92 | $10,598.74 |
+$570.47 (+5.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 2, 2026 10:50am ET | $13.13 | 807 | $10,591.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 2, 2026 11:15am ET | $12.59 | 807 | $10,160.13 | $10,166.99 |
$-431.74 (-4.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 7, 2026 9:55am ET | $12.38 | 821 | $10,163.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 7, 2026 10:25am ET | $11.88 | 821 | $9,753.56 | $9,756.57 |
$-410.42 (-4.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 10, 2026 10:05am ET | $12.68 | 769 | $9,747.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 13, 2026 9:40am ET | $12.24 | 769 | $9,412.48 | $9,421.98 |
$-334.59 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $10.70 | 880 | $9,416.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $11.33 | 880 | $9,970.40 | $9,976.38 |
+$554.40 (+5.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 24, 2026 9:50am ET | $12.23 | 815 | $9,967.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 27, 2026 10:25am ET | $11.77 | 815 | $9,596.62 | $9,605.55 |
$-370.82 (-3.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 29, 2026 10:25am ET | $10.68 | 899 | $9,601.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 29, 2026 11:50am ET | $10.25 | 899 | $9,214.84 | $9,219.07 |
$-386.48 (-4.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 31, 2026 10:10am ET | $11.10 | 830 | $9,217.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 3, 2026 10:15am ET | $11.68 | 830 | $9,694.40 | $9,696.32 |
+$477.25 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $10.94 | 886 | $9,692.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 7, 2026 9:35am ET | $10.45 | 886 | $9,258.70 | $9,262.18 |
$-434.14 (-4.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 21, 2026 10:45am ET | $11.13 | 832 | $9,256.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 24, 2026 10:20am ET | $11.72 | 832 | $9,750.96 | $9,757.14 |
+$494.96 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 26, 2026 9:35am ET | $11.49 | 848 | $9,747.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 26, 2026 11:55am ET | $11.13 | 848 | $9,434.00 | $9,443.38 |
$-313.76 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $11.58 | 815 | $9,437.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 28, 2026 10:05am ET | $11.10 | 815 | $9,050.57 | $9,056.25 |
$-387.13 (-4.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 1, 2026 9:35am ET | $10.23 | 885 | $9,052.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 3, 2026 9:45am ET | $10.80 | 885 | $9,558.00 | $9,562.03 |
+$505.78 (+5.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 10, 2026 9:40am ET | $11.37 | 840 | $9,550.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 11, 2026 9:55am ET | $12.03 | 840 | $10,102.01 | $10,113.24 |
+$551.21 (+5.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$10,113.24
Net Profit/Loss:
+$113.24
Total Return:
+1.13%