Compendium › Marcus Grave Dancer › NVDA
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
NVDA
Alpaca Tradeable

Marcus Grave Dancer's Analysis

Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 4 trades in period

+13.08%
Year to Date Return
$19,620.02
Current Value
75%
Win Rate
$17,350.31
Period Start
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PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:15:17

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
33.4 neutral
20d Trend
-9.7%
5d Trend
-7.1%
EMA20 Dist
-5.9%
ATR%
3.2%
Range Pos
3%
Bounce Ratio
0.7×
Green/Red 10d
4/6

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

61
Lifetime
Confidence: 81%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
35.0/35
Total Return
16.5/25
Win Rate
8.2/15
Profit Factor
10.0/15
Consistency
6.4/10
Raw Quality 76.0/100
× Confidence 0.81 = 61.5

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (81%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Year to Date)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
17,124
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
189 days
Data Gaps
None (8 market holidays)

Market Closed (8 days)

2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Year to Date)

Period Start Capital
$17,350.31
Current Value
$19,620.02
Period P&L
$2,269.72
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.88

Trade Statistics (Year to Date)

Trades in Period
4
Winners / Losers
3 / 1
Best Trade
+5.49%
Worst Trade
-3.04%
Avg Trade Return
+3.19%
Avg Hold Time
4.9d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$145,497.69
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$2,269.72
Net P&L (after fees)
$2,269.72
Gross Return
+13.08%
Net Return (after fees)
+13.08%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 NVDA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 189 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Year to Date - 4 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Grave Dancer had $17,350.31 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jan 20, 2026 9:35am ET $180.48 96 $17,326.08 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 27, 2026 10:40am ET $189.55 96 $18,196.32 $18,220.54 +$870.24
(+5.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
2 🟢 BUY May 15, 2026 9:40am ET $225.62 80 $18,049.60 — — —
🔴 SELL May 18, 2026 2:50pm ET $218.75 80 $17,500.00 $17,670.94 $-549.60
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Jul 17, 2026 9:40am ET $198.35 89 $17,652.71 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 22, 2026 10:55am ET $209.23 89 $18,621.47 $18,639.70 +$968.76
(+5.5%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Sep 14, 2026 9:30am ET $211.20 88 $18,585.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 18, 2026 3:55pm ET $222.34 88 $19,565.92 $19,620.02 +$980.32
(+5.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $19,620.02
Net Profit/Loss: +$9,620.02
Total Return: +96.20%
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