Compendium › Marcus Grave Dancer › TSLA
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
TSLA
Alpaca Tradeable

Marcus Grave Dancer's Analysis

Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 8 trades in period

-15.82%
Year to Date Return
$13,157.35
Current Value
13%
Win Rate
$15,630.87
Period Start
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PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 22:54:12

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
30.3 neutral
20d Trend
-11.8%
5d Trend
-10.2%
EMA20 Dist
-9.3%
ATR%
3.6%
Range Pos
7%
Bounce Ratio
0.8×
Green/Red 10d
3/7

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

38
Lifetime
Confidence: 83%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
22.1/35
Total Return
12.6/25
Win Rate
3.4/15
Profit Factor
1.5/15
Consistency
6.2/10
Raw Quality 45.7/100
× Confidence 0.83 = 37.8

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (83%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Year to Date)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
17,124
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
189 days
Data Gaps
None (8 market holidays)

Market Closed (8 days)

2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Year to Date)

Period Start Capital
$15,630.87
Current Value
$13,157.35
Period P&L
$-2,473.53
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.77

Trade Statistics (Year to Date)

Trades in Period
8
Winners / Losers
1 / 7
Best Trade
+5.13%
Worst Trade
-3.58%
Avg Trade Return
-2.12%
Avg Hold Time
2.2d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$230,593.73
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-2,473.53
Net P&L (after fees)
$-2,473.53
Gross Return
-15.82%
Net Return (after fees)
-15.82%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 TSLA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 189 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Year to Date - 8 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Grave Dancer had $15,630.87 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Feb 2, 2026 9:30am ET $415.36 37 $15,368.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 4, 2026 12:30pm ET $402.77 37 $14,902.43 $15,164.99 $-465.89
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET $364.39 41 $14,939.98 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 6, 2026 11:25am ET $353.29 41 $14,484.89 $14,709.90 $-455.09
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Apr 23, 2026 9:30am ET $373.69 39 $14,573.91 — — —
🔴 SELL May 1, 2026 11:10am ET $392.88 39 $15,322.13 $15,458.11 +$748.21
(+5.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
4 🟢 BUY May 15, 2026 9:40am ET $426.94 36 $15,369.84 — — —
🔴 SELL May 18, 2026 9:45am ET $411.65 36 $14,819.58 $14,907.85 $-550.26
(-3.6%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Jun 23, 2026 9:30am ET $391.91 38 $14,892.58 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 23, 2026 2:45pm ET $379.86 38 $14,434.68 $14,449.95 $-457.90
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Jul 2, 2026 10:20am ET $403.20 35 $14,111.83 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 2, 2026 12:30pm ET $391.08 35 $13,687.97 $14,026.10 $-423.85
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Jul 23, 2026 9:30am ET $337.91 41 $13,854.31 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 23, 2026 9:55am ET $326.72 41 $13,395.52 $13,567.31 $-458.79
(-3.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
8 🟢 BUY Sep 4, 2026 9:30am ET $362.78 37 $13,422.86 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 4, 2026 11:55am ET $351.70 37 $13,012.90 $13,157.35 $-409.96
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $13,157.35
Net Profit/Loss: +$3,157.35
Total Return: +31.57%
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